The Baseball Economics Blog

2010 MLB Playoffs

2010-10-06T20:31:00.000-07:00

I sit here on Wednesday night, in the wake of Major League Baseball's second ever post-season no hitter and I just know that it is just beginning. When I look at the teams that made it this season, there is one juggernaut (Philadelphia) and seven others that are hungry for playoff success. Here is what I am thinking about each team starting the playoffs:

Philadelphia (97-65): The Phillies had a dominant September. They have an American League offense, the big three and their closer is back and pitching lights out. When I see this team, it is going to take a lot of heart to uproot the team that has played in each of the last two World Series. They are deep in pitching, deep in hitting and have a serviceable bench. They are going to have to get in their own way to get knocked out before the World Series, if they do that -- is it poor defense? is it Lidge reverting to his erratic self because of Manuel's overuse? I know what it won't be -- this team is cool and collected, they have been there each of the last three years and have the experience of the big games.

Tampa Bay (96-66): When I look at the Rays, I see the best record in the American League, yet I am not afraid. They have speed, they have range, they are young, they have been there and they are very well managed. What they do not have is a minimal fan base and players that have discussed this issue publicly in the past couple weeks. That seed of doubt has been planted in my mind that every time they are home with a crowd that leaves early or doesn't sell out, they are thinking about it. It's a distraction and distractions are a bad sign for any playoff team. Tampa is incredibly talented and will be led by solid young pitching. Their offensive leader, Evan Longoria, claims to be at 80%, another cause for concern. While Longoria at 80% is better than most everyone else at that position, he needs to be at 100% to lead an offense that does not have many well rounded hitters.

New York (95-67): Pitching is a serious cause for concern for the Yankees. CC Sabathia is about all they have that is consistent from the starting rotation. Phil Hughes has slowed down considerably, Andy Pettite is fragile and AJ Burnett is gone. The Yankees have a very solid back end of the bullpen with Kerry Wood and Mariano Rivera, but they only have one left-handed relief pitcher, Boone Logan. That doesn't allow Girardi to mix and match much. If they have to face the Phillies in the World Series, good luck. They have to get through Mauer first. I do not like the Yankees chances because all it takes is Sabathia to lose one game and the odds of them losing will be far greater.

Minnesota (94-68): Justin Morneau is done for the season, oh well, Jim Thome makes this team deep enough to pull a 500+ home run guy into a significant spot in the lineup. The Twins seem to have what it takes to dethrone the Yankees in the LDS this year. The image of Carl Pavano beating the Yankees continues to run through my head and he will have his chance in Game 2. Delmon Young has had a coming out party in 2010, finally tapping into some of that potential everyone has talked about with him. In the bullpen, they are at their usual great status, even without Joe Nathan. If they have a lead, I don't see them losing it with the way they can mix and match. Ron Gardenhire is also a fantastic manager of a bullpen. Another factor, they are playing outdoor baseball in Minnesota in October, that has got to play in their favor against Tampa Bay or Texas.

San Francisco (92-70): The Giants almost tried to give away their comeback on the Padres, but they do it on pitching. Their rotation in September was incredible, starters having and ERA under 2.00. Their fault will continue to be infield defense and poor hitting. If the Giants get past the Braves, they will be a very good match up with the Phillies as they are probably the best team to go toe to toe with the Philadelphia pitching staff, advantage if it is Cincinnati. In the year of the pitcher, this postseason will be an exclamation point to that and with the best rotation (1-5) in the postseason, they have a shot at taking down the Phillies.

Cincinnati (91-71): How do you come back from being no-hit in the first postseason game for your organization in over a decade? It is going to be difficult, but they have the leading candidate for NL MVP on their team as well as a strong offense that could steal a game or two from the Phillies. Of the four teams in the NL, this starting rotation is the weakest. They have a solid bullpen, led by Francisco Cordero and how effective is Aroldis Chapman going to be against Ryan Howard and Chase Utley throwing 100MPH+ as a lefty? The Reds were comeback kings early in the season, so while it looked bleak today against Halladay, they aren't done.

Atlanta (91-71): The Braves did their best to try and giveaway the enormous cushion they had built up as being the best team in the NL through mid-September, they did limp their way into the playoffs for the first time since 2005 and they are here because they can pitch. This may very well be the best bullpen of all playoff teams with specialists and two guys at the end that have the ability to go 1-2-3 against just about anyone. Billy Wagner in the final season of his career and Craig Kimbrel in the first of his are a two headed monster that is key to Atlanta success. As September moved along, it became more and more apparent that Kimbrel was poised to play a huge role for this team in October, pitching in the 8th inning and occasionally 9th inning. There is no doubt that Billy Wagner is the closer, but Kimbrel is the right-handed solution to the 8th inning. In the starting rotation, Derek Lowe was the NL pitcher of the month in September and has the playoff experience, Tim Hudson is a top-5 Cy Young candidate and the NL Comeback Player of the Year and Tommy Hanson pitched great the second half of the season bringing his ERA down to 3.33. These three guys are going to match up with anyone and keep the Braves close. Whether this team sinks or swims will be because of someone on offense. At this point it is anyone that gets hot has the capability to carry this team. In May it was Troy Glaus; June, Brian McCann; August, Jason Heyward. Now who will step up? Steady defense will be key, over the past month the Braves defense killed them in close games. The Phillies took 5-6 from the Braves in September, the Braves made errors in each of those games (10 in total). Solid defense will carry this team.

Texas (90-72): I do not know why, but I feel very strongly about the Texas Rangers. This team has not been in the playoffs in more than a decade, but with Nolan Ryan at the helm, they really embody what Ryan was all about: grit, smart, hart-working. They are solid offensively while Josh Hamilton is still hurting, they have a healthy Nelson Cruz, who may have been a MVP candidate too, had he been healthy all season. I love this team also because of Cliff Lee. They have the best ace in the American League and he sure has looked good lately. The Rangers have some speed in Andrus, experience in Guerrero and will match offenses with anyone. If the Rangers win it, it will be likely be because of Lee and their very deep offense, they would effectively confirm and deny the year of the pitcher at the same time, which may be the perfect combination for this postseason.

For me, this postseason is going to be special, my first every experience of attending playoff baseball games. For baseball, this promises to be a very entertaining month.

Thoughts about Baseball: Top of the Tenth Inning

2010-09-28T20:35:00.000-07:00

· Has one steal ever meant more to baseball than Dave Robert’s steal of second in the 2004 ALCS Game 4 (Rickey Henderson picking up the bag at third, not even close).
· When talking about Barry Bonds, the five minutes of discussion about Bobby Bonds and Willie Mays was a little excessive, but did really open up a little bit about his personality (Pirate Hats in the 1980’s were so awesome).
· Where does Ken Griffey Jr. fit between steroids, corked bats, amphetamines and then steroids again?
· Jason Grimsley is Spideman and apparently the hero of the players for replacing Albert Belle’s corked bats with a untainted bat (I bet the steroid allegations he made at the end of his career weren’t very well received).
· Performance enhancing culture, it’s about time that it was said (Didn’t need to think about Cialis or Viagra, but it hit it home)!
· Never remember seeing the Joe Torre scene crying before the 1996 World Series. I must admit, that really impressed me (1996 was the year Joe Buck took over for Bob Costas – now that’s truly the evil empire).
· I really want to go to one of those Latin games in New York City (because I am a hell of a dancer).
· 50HR’s had not been accomplished from 1977 to 1990? Wow! How about that Jose Bautista.
· Jose Canseco’s mullet and impact that he had on the last 94 minutes of my life really surprise me. I never really realized just how much of an impact that man had on baseball.
· 1998 was the year that I became a baseball fan thanks largely to what Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Ken Griffey Jr. did. I will argue with anyone that home runs are bad for baseball. Sammy Sosa was fun, and I do have a 1998 Cubs Sosa jersey.
· If I saw Bud Selig looking for andro (however you spell that) at my local Milwaukee drugstore, I would wonder if it would have any effect on that neck of his.
· One of my first baseball memories was watching McGwire hit #62 live, I love baseball memories.
· Ray Lankford, Scott Servais and Frank Howard, memories?
· Ironic that the MLB home run chase was compared as being a large dose of Prozac? Note the performance enhancing culture comment from earlier…
· Buck O’Neil receiving dedication at the end was awesome. Can’t wait for the bottom of the 10th.

Regime Change: Baltimore

2010-07-06T09:14:00.000-07:00

As Buck Showalter and the Orioles discuss the future of the Orioles behind closed doors, it is time to wonder what happened to the team that was supposed to compete this season and be a difference maker between the big three in the AL East.

In looking at this team, the Orioles are loaded with strong young talent, coming into the season, it was said that they had the best young outfield in baseball with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold. Jones started the season off cold, coming around recently, Markakis needs to have some of his doubles (25) turn into homers (4) to be a middle of the order threat and Reimold is hitting .212 at AAA Norfolk after a .205 start in the majors this season. The arrival of Jake Fox this week and Matt Wieters completes their core of young offensive talent. Looking at the Orioles reserves for the players at these positions, their fourth outfielder is Corey Patterson, Julio Lugo is their infield backup and Craig Tatum backs up Matt Wieters. While Patterson has had a nice season this year taking over for Reimold, he totes a career OBP of .292 and even with his .290 average this year, his OBP is just .335. In the new age of paying attention to OBP and OPS, Patterson does not fit for anything other than filling the hole that Reimold made.

On the pitching side, Baltimore is loaded with young talent. Brian Matusz has been the most impressive of the three young pitchers Baltimore has in the rotation now Brad Bergesen and Jake Arrieta have big futures, but both have ERA's over 5.00 through the first half. Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie lead the young pitchers and while Guthrie has been average and consistent, Millwood has been a terrible disappointment this season. His entire career has been seasons of up and down, and after a resurgence last season, Millwood is having the worst season of his career this year. I like the theory of having a veteran pitcher atop the rotation to lead the young group, but Millwood has proven to be the wrong guy. Guthrie is an average starter, he definitely belongs in the big leagues and I would be very interested to see what he would do with a NL team. While he allows a lot of homers, he does not walk many batters. New York could make sense, though he is not the big impact arm that they have been seeking.

Very little good can be said about the Baltimore bullpen, as has been the case in recent years. Alfredo Simon has settled into the closers role and has done a good job, but he can be wild and that is not the sign of a premiere closer, he makes sense as a 7-8th inning guy in an elite bullpen. Jason Berken and Will Ohman have been good for the Orioles, but Ohman is likely going to be a trade target for teams looking to add a lefty reliever. Mike Gonzalez is set to return from the DL soon and re-assume the closers role which will bump Simon and Berken down and make the late inning a little easier for the Orioles. After returning from arm surgery, Gonzalez has not been the same pitcher and it is very obvious when he does not have his good stuff. Cla Meredith can be good at times as well, but has not been great this season. They are at least two solid pitchers away from having a good bullpen.

Baltimore is going to be a seller at the trade deadline this season, which will set their new manager up to prepare for 2011. Going for youth talent is the usual prize for a team that is selling at the trade deadline, however this summer they could benefit from bringing in some veteran leadership to their bench to support their younger players as well as going after some young talent. The pieces are in place for this team to grow for the second half of the season, adding a backup catcher to spell Wieters and improving their bullpen are keys to making this team succeed long term.

100 Years of Rickwood

2010-06-13T08:24:00.000-07:00

Little did I know when I moved to Atlanta in 2008 that a retro baseball oasis was just two hours away in Birmingham, Alabama. On June 2nd, 2010, the Birmingham Barons and Tennessee Smokies matched up for a game at Rickwood Field to honor its 100th year of having professional baseball played at the stadium. This stadium is the oldest professional stadium, older than both Fenway Park and Wrigley Field with a similar rich history. Far away from manufactured crowd noise, sausage races and peanut butter jelly time, 9,400 fans took a mid-week afternoon to take in a baseball game.

Walking through the parking lot, my Connecticut license plate was a badge of honor shared by many other out of state cars that day. Truly, people came from all over for this game and once inside the gate, it was incredibly obvious as to why this was. A retro-styled game program was available at the gate, there were hundreds of people in the concourse trying to garner refreshments from the 95 degree heat from the lone concession stand behind home plate and people with cameras were walking around, taking pictures of the memories of years past.

For me, I was taking in what it is like to be at a stadium again with people that were there for baseball and the love of the sport. The love of baseball was something all 9,400 people had in common this afternoon in June and as such it was so easy to strike up conversation. The usher that I asked where my seat was told me that it was on the other side of the stadium, but to instead sit in his section right behind home plate because it was prime real estate for real baseball fans. Then we launched into a conversation about how he used to play on this field and now has coached his sons to championship games at Rickwood. There were a group of three female retirees’ standing in line waiting for Harmon Killebrew’s autograph that drove hours just to meet the legendary Twins player, all of whom were so interested to hear my story. Or the many people that were responsible for putting on this event (the Friends of Rickwood) that were thrilled to talk about their stadium.

The game itself was the star of the show, as intended by the Friends of Rickwood. Rather than the modern day family entertainment that comes at ballparks designed to keep all members of a family engaged and entertained, the main course at this game was baseball with a side of history. In the ballpark’s 100th season, both teams turned back the clock to 1910 with uniforms from that year. Instead of the party music played between innings of today’s ballparks, Rickwood had a jazz band play between innings or if they needed a break, old swing music that could have very well have been played from a phonograph. “Take Me Out to The Ballgame” during the 7th inning stretch was perhaps more sonorous with a crowd of 9,400 people than the 53,000 that were at Braves Opening Day this spring.

Walking out the gate at the end of the day, it did not matter to me who won the game; it was the baseball experience of a lifetime. It brought me back to my first time at Fenway Park in 1998; nothing but an organist and baseball taking me through my very first MLB game, effectively starting the obsession that has guided my career and many life altering choices. Rickwood rejuvenated my inner baseball fan, because for these four hours, I was not paying attention to OBP, OPS, WHIP, VORP – I was paying attention to baseball and it still is as beautiful as I remember.

June 1st All Stars

2010-06-01T23:16:00.000-07:00

So, it is two months into the season and I am pretty disgusted with the All-Star voting (as usual through the first count) so I figured I would make my All-Star selections public through the first two months of the season.

National League - Visitor
C - Rod Barajas, NYM (Where did that power come from; Ivan Rodriguez was my choice prior to the injury, leadership and a .340 batting average speak volumes)
1B - Albert Pujols, STL (Rival to Miguel Cabrera)
2B - Martin Prado, ATL (Hitting .330 and found a home in the leadoff position on the hottest team in baseball, one is fueling the other there. Lots of other solid choices, Utley, Brandon Phillips, Kelly Johnson in that order)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (Great batting average this season with same power numbers and leading the surprise Nationals. Jorge Cantu was a close second)
SS - Hanley Ramirez, FLA (Pure talent, having another great season, not even close here)
LF - Ryan Braun, MIL (Easy choice)
CF - Andrew McCutchen, PIT (Dynamic player that will be noticed)
RF - Andre Eithier, LAD (Easily one of the top five players this year, even with his injury)
DH (Not possible to vote in the NL, just for fun) - Jason Heyward, ATL (This was the meaning of instant impact, now baseball people are asking, "Who will be the next Jason Heyward?" The best offensive rookie I have seen since Ryan Braun coupled with clutch hitting, speed and defense)
Ace - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL (No-Hitter, Sub-1.00 ERA, 10-1 record, not even a perfect game by Roy Halladay will change my mind here)

American League - Home
C - Kurt Suzuki, OAK (Struggling position because of injuries and slow starts. Mauer will get my July vote likely)
1B - Miguel Cabrera, DET (Arguably the best production this season)
2B - Robinson Cano, NYY (Not even close)
3B - Evan Longoria, TB (Best player on the best team gives the edge over A-Rod and Adrian Beltre's .340 batting average)
SS - Alex Gonzalez, TOR (Where did all that power come from?)
LF - Alex Rios, CWS (Has found his power stroke again)
CF - Vernon Wells, TOR (See Alex Rios)
RF - Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (Keep on keeping on)
DH - David Ortiz, BOS (Vlad Guerrero is a very close second)
Ace - Jon Lester, BOS (Watch out AL, he has been a traditional slow starter and this season he came out of the gate on fire. Not as easy of a call as the NL, but I like Lester over Sabathia or Ricky Romero)

The NL has not won an All-Star game in more than a decade. Based on how their stars are hitting this spring things are looking up. The AL is deep in talent that has underperformed this season or has been hit by injuries. Remember, this is based on the 2010 season statistics, not overall talent.

Happy New Year

2010-04-07T21:45:00.000-07:00

Sunday afternoon while driving from Florida to Georgia, I received a text message from a baseball mind that I highly respect wishing me a happy opening night. As always, I tried to come up with a clever response and eventually it hit me...Happy New Year.

Baseball is back and stadiums across the country are full of optimism and excitement as we work our way through the first series of 2010. Just like the millions of people that celebrate New Years eve, people are excited to see a new season because the slate is clean and there is a chance to start anew and maybe, just maybe, win a World Series. Hope is spreading across baseball fans(even in Washington) today and that is a reason to celebrate spring!

Some brief predictions are:

The Tampa Bay Rays will return to the playoffs this season, meaning that one of the Yankees or Red Sox will not. While the Rays are not flashy, they are solid across the diamond and are developing offensively on a daily basis. The addition of Rafael Soriano will allow all of their other pitchers to move back to their 2008 roles, which will give them the strongest bullpen in the AL East. Because of the bullpen depth, I do expect the Rays to give the Red Sox and Yankees all they can handle and then some.
Jason Heyward will impact the NL East, but won't hit more than 30 homers.
Adrian Gonzalez will be a member of the Boston Red Sox by July 31st.
Collective bargaining will be discussed much of the year with a focus on changes to the revenue sharing system or potential salary cap/salary minimum requirements.
One of the Pittsburgh Pirates or Cincinnati Reds will finish the season ahead of the Chicago Cubs.

Who knows what is in store this season on the field, but the new year is here, a time for hope and excitement! Enjoy the 2010 baseball season!

The Revenue Sharing System

2010-02-02T10:59:00.000-08:00

Ten Changes over the Next Decade for Baseball

#6 Substantial Changes to the Revenue Sharing System
Earlier today I was talking with a close friend and great baseball mind about the revenue sharing system. We both agree that the current revenue sharing system in baseball is broken and the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement discussions will largely re-shape this system. Whether it stems from changes in other areas of the game such as introducing a salary cap and minimum, altering arbitration, internationalizing the draft or other things that I have already discussed, something needs to be done. The large market teams are not effected enough by the current system, the small market teams do not receive enough assistance and the mid-sized teams do not get anything out of the system.

Revenue sharing went the wrong way in 2006. Instead of increasing the fines for passing the luxury tax threshold, the agreement significantly increased the taxation threshold and decreased the fines for exceeding the threshold. In its roots, the luxury tax looked to be a way to directly combat spending by large market teams and it could have laid the groundwork for a salary cap. By relaxing the standard, it encouraged more spending from large market teams and just the Yankees have been victims of paying the luxury tax more than twice since 2006.

The revenue sharing system also went in the same direction. Instead of the 34% of revenue being shared, the totals dropped to 31%. The 3% drop made a difference in the millions, money that could have been used in player development for small market teams and not on free agents for large market teams.

Further, revenue sharing does not wholly affect the sales of luxury box seating. Luxury boxes are thought of as being regular seats. So if one luxury box can seat 20 people and the price of those tickets is roughly $30, revenue sharing counts $600. Instead, teams charge thousands of dollars for these seating locations and they pocket the difference. Thus, the Yankees are better off in their new stadium that seats 10,000 less people because of this and the fact that the lower quantity of seating will increase demand and prices will rise. This is also reason why the Chicago White Sox have had two new stadiums in the past twenty years. This affects the entire tax paying community and should be considered to change when the revenue sharing system is looked at again.

During my conversation with my friend today said that he felt that he could name ten teams this season and not miss a single playoff team, meaning that the distribution of talent is heavily swung onto the top ten teams. Whether or not that is true is yet to be seen, but the fact that strong baseball minds feel this way shows that baseball still struggles with competitive balance. Just ask Royals or Pirates fans (one winning season combined since 1992).

The solution is not clear cut, there are many avenues that baseball could go to alter the economics of the game. If I were sitting in the negotiating room with the best interests of baseball in mind, salary cap based on percentage of revenue would be the first thing I would seek, meaning that the maximum that the players can earn can not exceed a certain percentage of revenue. So if the team earned 100M in revenue, only 52% or 52M could be spent on players. The NHL utilizes this system and is realistic for baseball and requires responsible spending. Ultimately, the system that the NFL utilizes with non-guaranteed contracts and short-term spending would allow teams the ability to be more nimble and decrease the rebuilding process, however the players union's strength being what it is, that is no more than a dream for owners. What is clear is that something needs to be done in 2011 and I expect that major changes will come to the now outdated revenue sharing system.

Competitive Balance Talks Reopen

2010-01-30T12:20:00.000-08:00

Ten Changes over the Next Decade for Baseball

#5 Competive Balance Issues Addressed Again

As I sit here watching game 7 of the 1992 NLCS, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves history took polarized turns after this game. The Pirates have not had a winning season since 1992 and the Braves went on to win a World Series and they were in year two of fourteen consecutive winning seasons. Competitive balance has been a big conversation in baseball since free agency dollars started having such an impact which has resulted in increased costs for the fans and the corporate clients. Baseball, just as all sports has become an expensive activity to enjoy on a regular basis in most markets. Large market teams have been well equipped to spend on player talent and improve their team easier than opponents in small or medium markets. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals have 1 winning season since the 1992 season. They are a collective 1-33. This is not healthy for the sport to have two teams with strong histories to be simply woeful over the years.

What the Rays did in 2008 was remarkable and helped temper the talks of competitive balance trouble in baseball. Their model for success was executed perfectly and it is the model that the Pirates and Orioles have been building and rebuilding upon year after year without success (Pittsburgh and Baltimore were the only two teams from the decade that did not have at least one winning season).

While there should never be a perfect competitive balance. What the fans in Pittsburgh have had to endure since 1992 is terrible for the game of baseball. Even one winning season every five years and a playoff appearance each decade would be an upgrade on nearly 20 years of losing. In part, team management is at fault. The way that large market teams operate is also at fault. Not being able to solve this problem at the previous two collective bargaining agreements puts both the office of the commissioner and the MLBPA at fault too. In essence, everyone is at fault for this issue and it is going to need to have new resolutions during this decade that will change revenue sharing and the luxury tax. A point of reference to the amount of money that has entered the free agent market since 2000 is shown easily by the average MLB player salary. In 2009, that figure was 3.26M, in 2000 that figure was 1.99M(64% increase). Small market teams just can't keep up with that spending increase unless they execute perfectly like the 2008 Rays. Or should I say 2005 Rays, when they launched their player development plan because the rebuilding process takes a significant amount of time.

In the next decade, watch for competitive balance talk to return to the forefront.

The International Draft

2010-01-08T16:35:00.000-08:00

Ten Changes over the Next Decade for Baseball

#4 An International Draft

During a interview with Bud Selig around the World Series this year, he talked about potential changes that he wanted to make in the Collective Bargaining Agreement when discussions re-open in 2011. Selig earmarked changes to the draft system as being one of the changes he wanted to make.

The rationale for making the draft international would be to even the playing field amongst signing amateur talent outside of the United States. So for players such as Aroldis Chapman, who signed a reportedly $30M contract with Cincinnati this week, he would have to enter the draft to determine what team they would play for. This would mean that the landscape of the Dominican League camps and international scouting would change drastically. Rather than having the right to sign any of the talent directly out of their home countries, teams would now have to wait for the MLB draft in order to sign talent. This would be a major change for the draft and have both positive and negative effects.

The positive changes that would likely come from an international draft would be a slight competitive balance shift. Teams that are less aggressive in setting up international camps will now have the same opportunity to sign the top talent outside of the United States as teams that are more aggressive with camps will no longer have the luxury of signing many players outside of the United States after grooming them in their camps. Another positive is that there has been some dirty business that has occurred in signing international prospects. Much like the agent system in the United States, there are people in Latin America that will work for players and then take much of their salary if they do get signed. The rights for players would be under closer scrutiny.

A positive is that the draft could become far more interesting to follow if the story lines will include players that could potentially be closer to MLB ready. This could be good for the game if the draft becomes more of an event like competing leagues. It is likely that the MLB draft will never have the hysteria of the NFL, NBA or NHL that includes talent ready to play at the highest level, but it may be a step in that direction. In 2007, the first two rounds of the draft were broadcast on ESPN for the first time in the history of the MLB Draft. Last season, the draft was held on the MLB Network for extensive coverage. There is potential growth in that event and the international draft would certainly engage more fans in foreign markets.

The major negative to the international draft would be the clerical work that would be needed. In order for players to become eligible they would have to declare for the draft and in doing so that would require a massive effort from baseball to cover all of the eligible talent coming mostly from Latin America and Asia. There will also be quite a bit of work required by baseball operations departments to cover such a large territory. There already is coverage in international markets of varying degree for each team, however with an international draft, there will be even more travel needed for scouting.

It is in my opinion that for the international draft, baseball would benefit from the competitive balance argument. The counter argument is fairly strong in this case however too because the sport may not be ready right now to make such a major change as it will require teams to significantly alter their approaches in scouting and player development. The idea has been set now, but it seems more likely that the international draft may not be ready for implementation at the 2011 CBA discussions, unless a well thought out plan is produced by the Office of the Commissioner. Likely by the end of the decade, an international draft will be part of baseball after some more time and thought is put into this idea.

MLB Portland

2010-01-05T12:37:00.000-08:00

Ten Changes over the Next Decade for Baseball

#3 MLB Expansion/Relocation to Portland, Oregon
During my senior year of college, several classmates and I worked on a group project that detailed a strategic plan for relocating the Oakland Athletics to Portland, Oregon. It was our opportunity to get creative and develop an idea that was plausible. The result was a comprehensive report that covered pretty much all of the areas of running a professional sports franchise including: sponsorships, marketing, baseball operations, etc. Here is the condensed version of why Major League Baseball belongs in Portland:

Currently, the Portland Beavers provide the city with their baseball entertainment playing in the AAA Pacific Coast League. With their stadium located downtown, accessible to public transportation, the city was thinking with foresight when they built the new stadium with the ability to expand the seating capacity and upgrade the facility if Major League Baseball came to calling. Getting the MLB to reach Portland is extremely well supported by their region. The city is headquarters for both Addidas and Nike. There are two very well done websites to support the idea that are linked below that show how much time and effort has gone into MLB Portland. Importantly, the people of Portland support their teams. The Trailblazers have been in the top ten in attendance the last three years and are currently fifth this season, selling above 95% of their seats. Including as high as 3rd in 2008-2009 when they sold out 102% of their seating capacity for the year. The interest in the Blazers points that adding another major professional sports team would be well supported. The Portland Timbers will be joining Major League Soccer in 2011, so I predict that by the end of the decade, Major League Baseball will be the next to expand to Portland.

Other benefits to having a team in Portland is that it will create better travel for teams that are going to play Seattle. Right now, Seattle travels the furthest of any team and its closest MLB competitors are Colorado and Oakland. By adding a team to Portland, a rivalry will hopefully be created in the Pacific Northwest and baseball would have the opportunity to expand its presence further into Oregon, Northern California, Idaho and Montana. Fans wouldn't have to drive 8 hours to see a baseball game anymore. Teams would be able to reduce travel time a bit by making a swing to play Portland and Seattle. There could even be a re-alignment of teams so that each division has 5 teams in it. (Houston to NL or AL West?)

I feel that rather than adding a new team and potentially creating the problem of having an odd number of teams, Baseball should relocate one of its teams to Portland. The obvious choice to me is the Oakland Athletics. The A's finished last in attendance in 2009, averaging around 17,000 fans each night. They play in a football stadium, which makes matters worse in that the percentage of seats sold was below 40%, so it looked even more barren. This was by far the lowest percentage across baseball. The A's were in talks of building a new stadium, but legal trouble and MLB market rules have dashed those hopes for now. An outdated stadium and low attendance are a bad combination for this team. Furthermore, across the bay in San Francisco, baseball flourishes. Oakland fans will still have the opportunity to see baseball if they so desire. The San Francisco market size would increase and Baseball would grow further into some of its unclaimed territories.

Moving baseball to Portland just makes sense.

For Further Reading:
http://www.oregonstadiumcampaign.com/
http://www.portlandbaseballgroup.com
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2727901

Cuban Baseball

2010-01-05T00:00:00.000-08:00

Ten Changes over the Next Decade for Baseball
#2: Cuban Politics Affecting Baseball

In the 2000's Cuba saw a few players defect from their country to be eligible to play baseball in the United States. Examples of such players include Lvian Hernandez, Orlando Hernadez, Jose Contreras, Yunel Escobar and Kendry Morales to name some of the more famous players. There already is some history of Cuban players succeeding in Major League Baseball and being well compensated (See Jose Contreras and bidding war).

[For an excellent story detailing Yunel Escobar's defection, the following Sports Illustrated article opened my eyes: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1130711/index.htm]

With Ardonis Chapman now being contacted by double digit number of teams, and the performances at the World Baseball Classic in 2006 and 2009, there is a lot of top-tier talent that remains untapped from Cuba. There is talk that border restrictions will be loosened for their country now that Fidel Castro is no longer in leadership. Contingent on political changes in Cuba, a country rich in baseball talent, there will be a major influx of Major League and Minor League talent. With 48% of minor leaguers born outside of the United States and 28% of major leaguers, this is going to increase the supply of talent, which is going to hurt salaries and improve the product on field. While the changes will be tough to observe on the surface. Having such a high amount of new talent available is going to impact the economics of the game to some extent and certainly create some new story lines.

I would come down on this as being a positive for baseball. Whenever there is an opportunity to have the overall product on the field improve, baseball needs to take it. It may stifle salaries a bit at the lower level, and make the conversation about an international draft very interesting, but it should create a great deal of pride for people of Cuban heritage. MLB Marketing would benefit well from this as a result.

Perhaps this is why the Marlins aren't in Portland, OR.?

A New Commissioner for Baseball

2010-01-03T21:40:00.000-08:00

Ten Changes over the Next Decade for Baseball

#1: A New Commissioner for Baseball
This is an excellent starting point for this conversation because we already know that Bud Selig has decided to step down from his post as MLB Commissioner, a position that he has held since 1992. The decision that the owners make for his successor may also be the most important one made of the decade. As we have seen all throughout baseball history, the leadership of the players and the league have changed the game. Examples such as Kenesaw Landis (famous for stomping out the rival Federal League), Marvin Miller (Leader of the MLBPA and responsible for increasing player rights) and Bud Selig (Initiated the Wild Card, revenue sharing and steroid testing) exist as proof of the importance of this decision.

The coming decade could be an opportunity for baseball. Football has become America's favorite game to watch in recent years and they could be in for some trouble with a strike or lockout due to increasing player demands and under-publicized health issues for players (did you know that the average life-expectancy for an NFL player is their mid-fifties?). Baseball will have the opportunity at the end of the 2011 season to discuss substantial changes to the revenue system of the league. There has already been talks of salary cap, an international draft and hard caps for signing draft picks. All of which would substantially change the economic status of the game in favor of the league rather than the player. At the conclusion of those talks, Bud Selig will step down and Major League Baseball will appoint a new commissioner.

Likely, on Opening Day 2012 baseball will not have all three of those talking points installed in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. They may be lucky to have one based on the history of bargaining with the players. This means that the next commissioner will have a great deal of work on their hands to continue to impact the economics of the game. In addition, there may be more radical ideas to talk about such as shortening the season, the World Baseball Classic and so on, so forth. The most important rule is that leadership is going to have to be savvy and ready to legally out-maneuver the MLBPA while still keeping the integrity of the game in tact and the players on the field as expected by the fans. A work stoppage in baseball would be catastrophic, especially with the NFL having some problems under the surface. This could be a decade where the MLB picks up some lost ground to the NFL in terms of popularity outside of the Northeast.

Some names that I have heard tossed around have been: Cal Ripken Jr., John Schuerholz, and even George W. Bush. I feel as though those names would do a great job as being ambassadors to the game. I do not feel that is the proper direction for this decade. There are going to be significant changes being made to the game in the future. Having leadership with a strong legal background is going to be incredibly important to the game. Selecting the correct person is going to be important. Both lawyers, Marvin Miller battled Bowie Kuhn for years on making the right decisions for baseball. During that time, the players made significant gains in unionizing, opening free agency and arbitration. Major League Baseball will need to select its leader carefully after Bud Selig retires.

Troy Glaus and Melky Cabrera

2009-12-24T10:46:00.000-08:00

The Atlanta Braves have had a busy week around the Holiday's. On December 22nd, the Braves traded RHP Javier Vazquez and LHP Boone Logan to the New York Yankees for OF Melky Cabrera, LHP Mike Dunn and RHP Aroyds Vizcaino. Then a day later, reports surfaces of former World Series MVP 3B Troy Glaus signing a one year contract worth two million dollars pending a physical.

The strategy here is by trading Vazquez to the Yankees, the Braves will have saved roughly $9.5M in the trade to put back into the free agent area. So far the Braves have signed Troy Glaus, with another corners player on their radar. Both Xavier Nady and Mark DeRosa's names have surfaced in the past week as well. This trade could very well end up looking like Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan for Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus, Xavier Nady/Mark DeRosa, Mike Dunn and Aroyds Vizcaino. When put that way, I like the deal. Replacing one of three staff aces from 2009 with three Major League players and two solid prospects. Still, there will have to be some further maneuvering before I pass judgment on these moves.

Melky Cabrera, OF
I have always really liked the way that Cabrera plays. He is a gritty player whose strength is defense. He has a plus arm and range. He also possesses some speed, though not game breaking. His offense has been improving, but he is never going to hit for much greater than average power. I like his chances of improving his offense even further in 2010 to numbers much like that of Matt Diaz. Something in the area of .280, 15, 75 seems likely with him batting lower in the order. Perhaps even a little bit higher with the power numbers. His power to the gaps is where it seems as though he could develop in Atlanta. At 24, he has a lot of room to grow beyond a Randy Winn type career.

Troy Glaus, 3B/1B
This was a move that I did not anticipate, but I do like the addition of Glaus particularly because he is given one year and just $2M to prove that he can still hit. If he can prove that he is healthy and still capable of being a power threat, Glaus would be a great addition to the Braves, but that is a big "if." There are few hitters I would less likely see as an opponent than Glaus when he is hot. However, when he cools down, he can be an easy strikeout victim. One great thing about Glaus is that he works walks effectively with a career OBP that is .104 points higher than his career batting average. With the sizable question mark following his name due to injuries and worries about his ability, bringing in another versatile corner player to provide insurance to both him and oft-injured Chipper Jones becomes a need. Potential candidates could be Chad Tracy or Joe Crede. Mark DeRosa also makes sense as a super utility player in the infield and outfield. With Garrett Atkins accepting a $4.5M deal with the Orioles this past week, to get a former All-Star with a World Series MVP award and leadership skills at $2M this seems like a potential steal if he can right the ship at age 33.

Back in Connecticut: Whalers Country

2009-12-24T09:49:00.000-08:00

Last week, I decided that it would be a good time to treat myself to a Holiday gift. It had been a rough week, and I was about to return to Connecticut for about ten days, so I decided that I should get something to represent my region, the Hartford Whalers. Even now, twelve seasons after their move to Charlotte, North Carolina the Connecticut fans still take a great deal of pride in the team. Recently, companies like New Era, Reebok, CCM and Mithcell & Ness have started producing Whalers retro products for fans to buy. So I went to Lids.com and purchased a new Whalers hat.

Much to my surprise at dinner last night with some friends, Whalers products are the trendy thing to buy this holiday season. At dinner, I saw a Whalers t-shirt, sweatshirt and new hat. All worn by people that were at most 10-11 years old when the Whalers played their final game in Hartford in 1997. This, a couple of days after I found out that Whalers apparel at the NHL store in Times Square is currently the number one seller moving towards the holiday season. To me, that makes an extremely strong statement to the popularity of the Hartford Whalers franchise even still today.

In the past I have done some deeper digging on the subject and made an argument, but now that apparel sales have proven my point even further, the Hartford Whalers should return to the state. The NHL has dropped to fourth among the major professional sports (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL) and if you count college sports, it has fallen even further. Expansion teams from the last ten to fifteen years in warm weather cities such as Fort Lauderdale or Phoenix to name two have not proven to be financially successful. While the Whalers did have a tough time selling tickets, I put that at fault of the management of the organization. Things have changed in professional sports. How we get to know and treat our fans is extremely important to team success and the Whalers relied too heavily on the team to sell tickets rather than the experience and fun that comes with attending a professional sporting event. The New Britain Rock Cats of New Britain, CT have consistently set attendance records and were Baseball America's best AA baseball team. Fans obviously have responded to their product, and it is a minor league product! Twelve years later, the state is hungry for another professional sport team as shown through apparel sales.

The most important piece of information that I always return to when I have this conversation with friends is that the city of Hartford is the largest city in the country without a Major League franchise. In September, 2009 the DMA ratings which determine market size show Hartford as being the 30th largest media market in the country. Ahead of cities such as Kansas City (#32), Milwaukee (#35) and Cincinnati (#33) which all have multiple major league teams. There are several cities that have just one professional sports franchise such as Portland, Oregon (#22) that time and time again show that they can draw fans. The Portland Trailblazers are 6th overall in attendance this season and were as high as 3rd last season. Towns with one Major League team have the ability to truly be the only show in town and with Portland being the best example.

The fans are ready, but much is needed for this to be a successful venture. Things that cost money such as a new stadium and sponsorship dollars stand as major hurdles. This year is not the right time, but based on the desire, the NHL should do whatever it can to get hockey in Hartford, a traditional hockey city.

For further reading, please check the following websites:

http://www.whalerwatch.com/

http://www.whalershockey.com/

http://www.hartfordwhalers.org/

http://ctsportslaw.com/category/hartford-whalers/

Competitive Balance Talk: Team of the Decade

2009-12-14T14:17:00.000-08:00

The years between 2000 and 2009 were the first ever in baseball where there were eight playoff teams each year and what resulted was perhaps the most competitive decade for baseball. Sure Pirate fans may disagree, but take a look at the following data to display a positive for competitive balance:

New York Yankees: 9 playoff appearances, 2 World Series Titles (4 appearances)
Boston Red Sox: 6 playoff appearances, 2 World Series Titles (2 appearances)
St. Louis Cardinals: 6 playoff appearances, 1 World Series Title (2 appearances)
Los Angeles Angels: 6 playoff appearances, 1 World Series Title (1 appearance)
Philadelphia Phillies: 3 playoff appearances, 1 World Series Title (2 appearances)
Chicago White Sox: 3 playoff appearances, 1 World Series Title (1 appearance)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3 playoff appearances, 1 World Series Title (1 appearance)
Florida Marlins: 1 playoff appearance, 1 World Series Title (1 appearance)

Colorado Rockies, 2 playoff appearances, 1 World Series Appearance
Tampa Bay Rays, 1 playoff appearance, 1 World Series Appearance
Detroit Tigers, 1 playoff appearance, 1 World Series Appearance
Atlanta Braves, 6 playoff appearances
Minnesota Twins, 5 playoff appearances
Oakland Athletics, 5 playoff appearances
Chicago Cubs, 3 playoff appearances
Houston Astros, 3 playoff appearances
Los Angeles Dodgers, 3 playoff appearances
San Francisco Giants, 3 playoff appearances
Cleveland Indians, 2 playoff appearances
New York Mets, 2 playoff appearances
San Diego Padres, 2 playoff appearances
Seattle Mariners, 2 playoff appearances
Milwaukee Brewers, 1 playoff appearance

So that leaves just seven (7) teams out of the playoffs this decade: Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates.

Basic sport economics states that professional sport leagues are looking to spread championships between large, medium and small market teams. Around 60% of championships should go to large market teams, 30% to medium markets and 10% to small markets. Counting Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia as large markets, St. Louis as a medium market and Arizona and Florida as small markets, the proportion for this decade is split 70/10/20 split. I would still like to see less large market teams winning World Series championships, but seeing 23 different teams in the playoffs this decade gives me hope for the next ten years. Medium market teams struggled this decade which I continue to attribute to revenue sharing, medium market teams operate without significant influence from revenue sharing. They do not have the same additional resources to put into player develoment or free agents like the small market teams have the opportunity to do. A business plan for medium and small market teams that has been successful has been to slash payroll for a couple of years and put that money into player development and then go for the playoffs for a period of 2-3 years before having to start over again. The Marlins, Rays and Padres for instance have successfully done that. I will look forward to the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement to find out what comes from early discussions of an international draft and a salary cap to further affect large market teams strategy.

So back to the team of the decade conversation. It depends on your vantage point. What the Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins have done to build 5 playoff teams with limited resources is admirable. The Red Sox have stepped out of the Yankees shadow this decade, but still they both have two World Series titles and the Red Sox have just one division title to the Yankees seven. I have to give the Yankees the nod as being the team of the decade. Annual competitors and winning a title in both the first and last year of the decade is a testamant to their ability to build and rebuild every year. To the competitive balance argument, the Yankees remain a menace with 1.7 billion dollars spent for on-field talent this decade. It is because of the Yankees and the Marlins that baseball and the MLBPA will discuss a salary cap in 2011.

Wagner and Saito

2009-12-06T21:47:00.001-08:00

This past week, the Atlanta Braves added two proven closers with career ERA's under 2.40 to their bullpen at a price of 10.2 million dollars guaranteed in 2010. Typically, those words would incite great response from the baseball community, however add in the fact that their combined age on opening day will be 78, the media has been far more critical of the moves. Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito were signed this week to be late inning relievers for the Atlanta Braves as they make a push back towards the playoffs. Saito is expected to set-up Wagner in the eighth and ninth innings. Here is my take on each reliever:

Billy Wagner, LH (One-Year Contract worth 7M, 2011 Option for 6.5M)
Coming off of Tommy John Surgery in 2009, Wagner showed that he certainly still has the same power arm as he did in 2007 when he closed games with the Mets. Looking at his career statistics, Wagner is one of the best closers in the history of the game. The red flag that I keep returning to on Wagner is that he is a power closer. Unlike some of the other storied closers such as Trevor Hoffman or even Mariano Rivera that have remained solid in the twilight of their careers, Wagner has not changed his style of closing. Both Hoffman and Rivera have experienced a drop in velocity and have had to focus on keeping hitters off-balanced to be successful. Wagner still throws mid-90's. If he loses his velocity for any number of reasons, there are going to be issues. There is a story that I remember about Wagner that gives me hope on his velocity continuing this late into his career. After injuring his right arm earlier in his career, Wagner adapted and became a left-handed pitcher with the ability to throw 100 MPH. With around twenty years of throwing with his left-arm, it makes sense that he would be able to continue to throw hard late into his career. Barring injury, I am going to make the prediction that Wagner is going to be successful with the Braves.

Takashi Saito (One-Year Contract worth 3.2M)
Saito came to the Dodgers in 2006 expected to be a middle-reliever and turned into an all-star closer and perhaps even the best reliever in baseball in 2007 when he posted a 1.40 ERA with 39 saves. His career ERA of 2.03 is also extremely impressive. Saito also went down with arm trouble in 2008 and had a rebound season with Boston in 2009. One difference for Saito is that his walk totals went way up last season. His control was average at best and that is a scary thought if he is to be relied upon in the eighth inning as a forty year old reliever. Saito still has some innings left in him, but he is going to have to make a believer out of me that he is going to be pitching them as a set-up man. While Saito may start the 2010 season as Braves set-up man, I do not expect it to finish that way (Peter Moylan).

A Season With the Braves

2009-11-18T19:04:00.000-08:00

On January 26th, I walked into the offices at Turner Field for the first time as marketing trainee and was met by smiling faces and great people eager to see what I could do. 302 days later on November 24th, my tenure as trainee will officially end and I can now say that this has been the most significant learning experience of my life. Just the other day, I was talking with my mom on the phone about the year and the wise woman that she is, she pointed out to me that years like these deserve to be remembered because times will not always be this wonderful so I choose to write.

The 2009 Major League Baseball season saw the Atlanta Braves make a big statement on the field from taking the one of the worst NL pitching staffs from 2008 (4.46) and turning it into the third best in 2009 (3.57 ERA). The trade for Nate McLouth showed early on that the Braves were not content with .500 and moving into 2010, this team looks like it could be a strong contender again behind great pitching. The pulse of the fans in the final week of the fans as the Braves made one final run at the Wild Card absolutely proved that Atlanta still loves baseball. The town was buzzing with "Braves Believers" as the team came to within two games with six to play. Things did not finish as hoped, but there is a great deal of hope for next year.

In the office, the work that was put in was deserving of a World Series trophy. I can remember a day when I thought that working in baseball meant exclusively the baseball operations departments making player decisions. While that theory was dispelled a long time ago, I still couldn't believe how much planning goes into a baseball season outside of what happens on the field. Across the office, I noticed how well Braves employees work together and look for ways to be more successful. I was immediately welcomed into the front office and I hit the ground running. In my capacity, I had the opportunity to focus on fan development marketing which included access to the Braves Facebook and Twitter pages, managing our mobile marketing team and mailing fan packages. Outside of these daily tasks, I did everything from passing out flyers at the gates to being shown on SportsCenter as a character in the popular Home Depot Tool race. As to be expected with any entry-level position, I struck the word "no" from my vocabulary which allowed me to gain these great experiences outside of my day to day tasks. Staying humble was crucial to my development this year and I truly do believe that it allowed me to gain respect of my co-workers. At the conclusion of my 302nd day, I will walk out of Turner Field knowing that nothing was left on the table. Even better, I finish the season with industry connections, experience and a few life-long friends.

For anyone looking to participate in the Trainee program, I am an extremely strong voice of support. Those who are financially capable of spending an eleven month period living near the poverty line, this is the best program in baseball for entry-level work. I feel this because trainees are given great responsibility in implementation of day-to-day work. To me, that opportunity to participate in the daily tasks for the organization was the best learning experience. In my experience, I was asked to hire and manage a staff of twenty-three people. There are not many programs in sports that offer such leadership potential. Another valuable opportunity that a trainee will receive is exposure. Exposure to leaders in the industry and to the sport business in general. At the conclusion of the season there may be a couple of people that earn a full-time offer, but the vast majority are qualified job seekers both inside the sport industry and in other areas because the Atlanta Braves are at the top of our resumes.

It remains to be seen where my next step will take me, but I am proud to announce that working with the Atlanta Braves this season allowed me to grow as a person. I feel as though 2009 was the best year of my life to date largely because of the people. This organization is incredibly well staffed with effective leaders and I feel extremely fortunate to have made so many great connections this season. While I am extremely excited to see what challenges the next chapter of my career will bring, I know that what I have gained from being an Atlanta Braves trainee was more than worth the time, money and energy that I put forth to make it work.

Pittsburgh Pirates Offseason Outlook

2009-10-20T19:35:00.000-07:00

Free Agents: None

Arbitration Eligible: Matt Capps, RP; Zach Duke, SP; Tyler Yates, RP; Ronny Cedeno, INF; Denny Bautista, RP; Lastings Milledge, OF.

Needs: 1B, SS, SP, RP, Depth

Likely Outcome: First, due to popular demand the Pirates make an early appearance on my offseason thoughts. Looking at this team, there is very little to hope for except for a miracle in player development. They have a good core of young talent, but for the Pirates to experience a winning season for the first time since 1992, they are going to need a miracle. Their offense is loaded with young potential in Ryan Doumit (C), Steve Pearce (1B), Delwyn Young (2B), Andy LaRoche (3B), Lastings Milledge (LF), Andrew McCutchen (CF) and Garrett Jones (RF). All of whom will be 29 or younger on Opening Day next season.

What I would do this offseason is add as many veteran players that will sign to add depth to the Pirates bench and to help develop this group of young talent. They have done this in the past couple of years in the form of Doug Mientkiewicz, Eric Hinske and Ramon Vazquez most prominently. If they bring in several of these type of players this offseason to help this team improve as a whole. Examples of players that I would seek would be: Chad Tracy, David Eckstein, Geoff Blum, Bobby Crosby, Reed Johnson, Endy Chavez. These guys do not make anyone's eyeballs pop, but they all have the ability to help make the Pirates bench deeper than in recent memory.

What will happen is the Pirates will likely play with the roster they currently have and bank their revenue sharing dollars for a season when they have the potential to compete. I would expect to see the Pirates activity limited to the low-end free agent market, spending $10M or less to bring in bullpen help, perhaps a starting pitcher and some bench depth.

Atlanta Braves Offseason Outlook

2009-10-19T21:06:00.001-07:00

Free Agents: Adam LaRoche, 1B; Greg Norton, 1B; Garrett Anderson, OF; x-Tim Hudson, SP; Mike Gonzalez, RP; Rafael Soriano, RP

Arbitration Eligible: Kelly Johnson, 2B; Ryan Church, OF; Matt Diaz, OF; Peter Moylan, RP

Needs: 1B, Corner Outfield, RP

Likely Outcome: There is going to be a bit of turnover in the bullpen as it does not seem likely that both the 8th and 9th inning options for 2009 will return. However expect most of the starting rotation to stay the same. The Braves are in an fortunate situation with six legitimate starting pitchers including Tim Hudson, who is in an option year of his contract worth 12M. It is going to be a tough decision, but the Braves would be able to maneuver in the free agent market a lot easier with an Hudson's contract off the books. It would be coming at a cost as that decision would effectively take one of the top starters out of the rotation. Offensively, I expect to see the Braves get very creative in the trade market to add some power at the corners. With the highest home run total for any Brave this season at 24, a big bat is needed to make the Braves a legitimate playoff contender. Adam LaRoche played well in September, but he is not a big power solution. Prince Fielder would be an ideal candidate via trade.

With the Hudson salary off the books, the Braves could be players on Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, but their salaries will likely be out of reach thanks to large-market competition. Angels Outfielder Bobby Abreu could be a good fit in the corner outfield as he would add gap power and speed. The bench is going to be a bit different as well. Adding some speed in a Scott Podsednik would make some sense.

This is a team hungry for a playoff appearance in Bobby Cox's final season as manager. Frank Wren showed this season in the Nate McClouth and Adam LaRoche trades that he is ready to make the necessary moves to improve this team. I expect the Braves to be a scary looking team in April with weaknesses potentially in the bullpen.

2009 MLB Free Agents

2009-10-19T20:45:00.000-07:00

Potential Free Agents for 2009-2010:

Catchers:
Josh Bard BOS
Michael Barrett TOR
Henry Blanco SD
Ramon Castro CWS
Jason Kendall MIL
Jason LaRue STL
Chad Moeller BAL
Bengie Molina SF
Jose Molina NYY
x-Miguel Olivo KC
Mike Redmond MIN
Brian Schneider NYM
x-Gregg Zaun TB

First-Basemen:
Hank Blalock TEX
Russell Branyan SEA
Carlos Delgado NYM
Nomar Garciaparra OAK
Jason Giambi COL
Aubrey Huff DET
Nick Johnson WAS
Adam LaRoche ATL
Kevin Millar TOR
Greg Norton ATL
Robb Quinlan LAA
Matt Stairs PHI
Mike Sweeney SEA
Jim Thome LAD
Chad Tracy ARZ

Second Basemen:
Marlon Anderson NYM
Ron Belliard LAD
Jamey Carroll CLE
David Eckstein SD
Orlando Hudson LAD
Felipe Lopez MIL
Mark Loretta LAD

Third Basemen:
Adrian Beltre SEA
Geoff Blum HOU
Joe Crede MIN
Mark DeRosa STL
Pedro Feliz PHI
Chone Figgins LAA
Troy Glaus STL
Jerry Hairston NYY
Mike Lamb MIL
Melvin Mora BAL
Juan Uribe SF

Shortstops:
Orlando Cabrera MIN
Juan Castro LAD
Alex Cora NYM
Khalil Greene STL
Ramon Martinez LAD
Miguel Tejada HOU

Corner Outfielders:
Garret Anderson ATL
Rocco Baldelli BOS
Jason Bay BOS
Frank Catalanotto TEX
Endy Chavez SEA
Johnny Damon NYY
David Dellucci CLE
Jermaine Dye CWS
Darin Erstad HOU
Cliff Floyd SD
Brian Giles SD
Vladimir Guerrero LAA
Eric Hinske NYY
Matt Holliday STL
x-Geoff Jenkins PHI
Reed Johnson CHC
Gabe Kapler TB
x-Austin Kearns WAS
Jason Michaels CLE
Xavier Nady NYY
Gary Sheffield NYM
Fernando Tatis NYM
Randy Winn SF

Centerfielders:
Rick Ankiel STL
Marlon Byrd TEX
Coco Crisp KC
Ryan Freel TEX
Mark Kotsay CHW

Starting Pitchers:
Brandon Backe HOU
Erik Bedard SEA
Daniel Cabrera ARZ
Bartolo Colon CWS
Jose Contreras COL
Doug Davis ARZ
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Adam Eaton COL
Kelvim Escobar LAA
x-Jon Garland LAD
Mike Hampton HOU
Livan Hernandez WAS
Randy Johnson SF
Braden Looper MIL
Jason Marquis COL
Pedro Martinez PHI
Brett Myers PHI
x-Vicente Padilla LAD
Carl Pavano MIN
Odalis Perez WAS
Joel Pineiro STL
Sidney Ponson KC
Jason Schmidt LAD
John Smoltz STL
Jarrod Washburn DET
Todd Wellemeyer STL

Relief Pitchers:
Luis Ayala FLA
Danys Baez BAL
Miguel Batista SEA
Joe Beimel COL
Joaquin Benoit TEX
Chad Bradford BAL
x-Doug Brocail HOU
Kiko Calero FLA
Elmer Dessens NYM
Brendan Donnelly FLA
Octavio Dotel CWS
Alan Embree COL
Scott Eyre PHI
Josh Fogg COL
Chad Fox CHC
Gary Glover WAS
Mike Gonzalez ATL
Tom Gordon ARZ
Kevin Gregg CHC
Eddie Guardado TEX
Mark Hendrickson BAL
Matt Herges COL
Trevor Hoffman MIL
Bobby Howry SF
Jason Isringhausen TB
x-Masahide Kobayashi CLE
Ron Mahay MIN
Gary Majewski WAS
Guillermo Mota LAD
x-Will Ohman LAD
Darren Oliver LAA
Chan Ho Park PHI
Troy Percival TB
Juan Rincon COL
Fernando Rodney DET
Duaner Sanchez NYM
Scott Schoeneweis ARZ
x-Brian Shouse TB
Russ Springer TB
Brett Tomko OAK
Jose Valverde HOU
Claudio Vargas MIL
Ron Villone WAS
x-Luis Vizcaino COL
Jamie Walker BAL
Jeff Weaver LAD
Kip Wells CIN
Jamey Wright KC

x-Notates players that have an option on their contract.

Washington Nationals Offseason Outlook

2009-10-08T19:14:00.000-07:00

Free Agents: x-Dmitri Young, 1B; x-Austin Kearns, OF; Odalis Perez, LHP; Gary Glover, RHP; Gary Majewski, RHP; Ron Villone, LHP; Mike MacDougal, RHP; Josh Bard, C; Pete Orr, 2B; Livan Hernandez, RP.

Arbitration Eligible: Josh Willingham, OF; Scott Olsen, LHP; Logan Kensing, RHP; Jason Bergmann, RHP; Sean Burnett, RHP;

Needs: SP, RP, 2B, OF, Depth

Likely Outcome: The Nationals are going to have a bit of payroll flexibility this offseason, but I cannot see them adding a whole lot of salary for 2010. If they are willing to make a commitment to adding another legitimate starting pitcher. Fortunately for them, this is absolutely going to be a buyers market for starting pitching. With high risk, high reward options all over in the form of Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Kelvim Escobar, Rich Harden or Ben Sheets the Nationals could be a player for one of those types to add some depth to a very weak pitching staff. In the bullpen, they would benefit greatly from bringing in two or three quality arms in addition to a closer. They probably won't be able to do all of that however, a reliever looking for another chance at closing like Kevin Gregg, Billy Wagner or LaTroy Hawkins seems plausible.

They have some bright spots around the diamond in Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimermann and John Lannan right now. Nyjer Morgan was electric after being traded by Pittsburgh, but I positive he is not a .351 hitter as he was after being traded to Washington by Pittsburgh. Still, Morgan is deserving of a full season in the lead-off capacity with a career .303/.362 BA/OBP split. Stephen Strasburg is a bright spot for the future and the Nationals possess the #1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, so hopefully they will be looking at another blue chipper next June. I cannot see this team competing in 2010, however if they can add a couple of legitimate pitchers both in the rotation and bullpen as well as to their bench, this is a team that won't be a laughing stock in 2010.

Football is King, Oh Well...

2009-09-22T20:27:00.000-07:00

If you have spent any amount of time near me when ESPN is on, you will know by now that I am miserably bitter about the coverage that is given to the NFL and College Football. I mean really, how many times does ESPN have to showcase the New England Patriots loss to the Jets. I even heard them actually ask the question today if Matt Ryan was a better quarterback than Tom Brady moving forward on PTI. Seriously? Wait...seriously? Sadly, I will now concede that Football is king when it comes to sports in the United States. For those of us who remain interested in watching slow paced games that require unique skill sets, the baseball regular season is coming to a close and the playoffs are promising to be very entertaining theatre once again.

With both Los Angeles franchises likely in, Boston, New York and Philadelphia, there are five large markets that will be represented this October, a pleasing sight for Major League Baseball. Another round of New York vs. Boston appears likely in the American League with the Yankees offense looking lethal against a balanced attack from Boston. The National League favorites have to be the Phillies again, but the Colorado Rockies make for an amazing story and potentially a great Divisional Series match-up with the way Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Marquis and Jorge De La Rosa have been pitching. How incredible is this story? I saw a stat today that De La Rosa has an ERA under 2.00 this past month. If that holds steady to the playoffs (not so far tonight, San Diego's anemic offense put 6 on the board early), Philadelphia will absolutely have their hands full with their left-handed lineup.

Watch the Braves closely these last two weeks of the season. Yeah, I've followed them closely all season, but they have found a way to win games over the past two weeks and have taken ten of their last twelve. If they repeat that feat over their last twelve games (seven against Washington), they will finish the season at exactly 90 wins. Colorado would have to go 5-7 to force a playoff, but talk about amazing theatre if that were to happen. Mathematically, they are currently given a 5.2 percent chance of making the playoffs -- a figure that may still be a bit generous. Everyone loves an underdog.

The AL Central race also is going to be close coming down to the wire. Detroit is ahead by just 2.5 games over Minnesota, who is somehow making a surge without Justin Morneau. I can't see it happening without Morneau, but Detroit has been playing uninspired baseball for a while now.

Last thought of the night is Washington will be the first team to 100 losses this season as they currently sit at 99. A 110 loss season is not out of the realm of possibility too if the Braves continue to play the way they have. The Natinals (please tell me you understand that mis-spelling) are a long way from being contenders, but at least they have Strasburg in the Arizona Fall League and another #1 pick coming in 2010.

What's Going On In Boston?

2009-08-09T12:41:00.000-07:00

So the Red Sox pulled off a trade to acquire one of baseball's better hitters in Victor Martinez at a position that has been under-producing over the past two seasons with Jason Varitek's decline as a hitter. They just made a waiver claim to fill their worst offensive position in Cristian Guzman at shortstop. For no fault of the front office, the Red Sox have lost five in a row and have been held scoreless in consecutive games. I still believe the Red Sox to be one of baseball's best teams, but they have been playing terrible baseball -- particularly on the offensive side of the ball. I have to point out that this is the first season that manager Terry Francona has had to juggle his players all over the diamond. There is so much depth to this roster, that there is a chance that the Red Sox offense has not gotten comfortable in their new setting. My reccommendation would be for Terry Francona to put the same lineup out there a couple of days in a row to see if they can get in a groove collectively and start supporting what has been relatively solid pitching.

Opening Day

2009-04-06T20:10:00.000-07:00

There is something beautiful about watching Opening Day. Every single player, coach, fan, team employee is filled with optimism. On this date, every team is a contender, everyone can see first place just as easily as they can last.

So while Baltimore could very well lose the next 18 times they play the Yankees, today they beat the highest paid pitcher in Major League History and are in first place in the AL East.

Today, I was able to watch four games at one time on the new MLB.tv premium with picture in picture options.

I am just so happy that it is finally back. For a baseball junkie, opening day is the fix from winter's forced abstinence. Welcome back summer, how I missed you.

Working in Baseball Update

2009-03-29T20:41:00.001-07:00

To those who have taken an interest in my career in baseball, I wanted to send a brief update as to how things have been progressing in my seasonal position with the Atlanta Braves. March 26th marked my second month of being a trainee with the Braves and I look back on these two months and I just cannot believe how much I have learned about myself and about the industry in this time. During my time at Ithaca College, I prepared and developed my own opinions about sports and spent a great deal of time thinking about the business of baseball and how teams are successful money makers. Since arriving, I have finally realized the importance of ticket sales. Everything does truly return to ticket sales. In a year where the economy is in flux, selling becomes even more of a priority and as a result I have been encouraged just about every day to develop ideas that could sell tickets. So far, I have only come up with ideas, but hopefully by the end of the season I will be able to show that I came up with bonafide ticket sales project either collaboratively or on my own.

The best piece of advice that I have received thus far has been to keep my confidence in check. The last thing that any experienced employees want to hear is an inexperienced employee talking about all the things that they know. There is a lot to be said about being an employee that doesn't know the meaning of the word "no" at this point in one's career. I keep that in the back of my mind every time I walk into the doors of Turner Field.

Finally, I have figured out that this is truly the industry for me. Whether I come home after an incredibly busy day of work or have gone in many hours before I would have been awake on the weekends while at college, I am excited to go to work every day and am satisfied when I return home at night. I find myself staying up later than I should at night thinking about what I need to do or brainstorming ways to make the Atlanta Braves profit more. Truly, the signs of a future workaholic. Fortunately, I am happy and all signs point to me continuing to be happy.

The Atlanta Braves home opener is April 10th versus the Washington Nationals. I can't believe that it is already here -- my first "real" season. To all my friends and family, thank you for your comments and interest about my very young career.

AL West Final Thoughts

2009-03-29T20:30:00.000-07:00

1.) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2.) Texas Rangers
3.) Oakland A's
4.) Seattle Mariners

The Angels have looked great thus far in Spring Training, but there is reason to believe that they have gotten significantly worse this season after losing Mark Teixeira, which means that the rest of the division catches up after the Angels won the division 2008 by more than 20 games. The Angels remain the favorites because of all around depth, but the Rangers and A's have closed the gap significantly. The Rangers offense is young and improving every day. There is a good chance that this offense could be record setting assuming good health. The A's will have their offensive struggles, but like the Rangers offense, the A's pitching is also young and looking like a staff that is maturing with every start. When the A's and Rangers get together, it'll be fun seeing which gets the upperhand. The Mariners are going to be a little better in 2009, but it may not be until 2011 until that team is a legitimate competitor again assuming that they can improve minor league depth and develop current talent into major league players. They will have a significant say as to which team makes the playoffs.

This is the weakest of the divisions in the AL, but it will be a fun one to follow because three teams should be there come the final week of September.

Texas Rangers Preview

2009-03-24T16:00:00.000-07:00

Overview: The Texas Rangers are another intriguing team from the AL West, much like the Oakland A's. As is always the question with the Rangers, will their starting pitching be adequate enough to push them into the playoffs. They have a fantastic looking offense and a bullpen that has FIVE pitchers with closers experience. They have incredible depth on their bench as well. Nobody has been talking about the Rangers, but I really think that this could be a team that is going to surprise a lot of people this year and contend in the AL West all season long.

Starting Pitching: Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Matt Harrison, Brandon McCarthy and Jason Jennings are currently slotted in the Rangers starting rotation. That's not exactly the best news for Rangers fans because that rotation is definitley not getting better. Watching Edinson Volquez dominate the National League hurts too, but the Rangers do have a good amount of young pitchers, so if any of the last three starters in their rotation get hurt or aren't cutting it, they have the flexibility to try a fresh arm. Kason Gabbard, Scott Feldman, Kris Benson, Eric Hurley and Luis Mendoza could all start this season for the Rangers. I see no reason to believe that the combined starters ERA is going to be much lower than 5.00 this season. Unless something changes drastically and one of their younger pitchers develops or they acquire a solid arm, the Rangers are going to be let down by their starting pitching once again.

Bullpen: For now at least, this looks to be a position of strength for the Rangers. As mentioned in the overview, the Rangers have five relievers with closer experience. Frank Francisco has been given the job with CJ Wilson, Eddie Guardado, Derrick Turnbow and Joaquin Benoit also having closer experience. At this point, Wilson, Guardado, Turnbow and Benoit are not feared arms, but they are solid enough to give Ron Washington the ability to mix and match with two lefties (Wilson and Guardado) and two righty's (Turnbow and Benoit) to get to Francisco in the late innings. I only worry that they do not have a long man in their bullpen as of right now. Though with the amount of starting pitching that the Rangers have, it wouldn't be too hard to have one of those pitchers throw some decent innings for them. There are health concerns with just about all of these relievers, so the issue could still be in doubt, but for now, I like this bullpen.

Offense: The Rangers offense is going to be one of the best in baseball this season, if not the best. With a Micheal Young shift to third-base, the team improves across the board. With that one shift, the Rangers are able to take Hank Blalock off the field to become the full-time DH and super prospect Elvis Andrus is given the starting shortstop job. That will also improve the defense markedly as Young has never been the best shortstop. Ian Kinsler and Chris Davis fill out the right-side of the infield and each are young players that have come through the Rangers system. Kinsler is a top-5 second baseman and Chris Davis showed that he could rake in limited time last season (295 ab's -- .285, 17, 55). Behind the plate, the Rangers are loaded with talent with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez. Each appear to be offensive minded players with real star potential. The question is which one will get it figured out at the major league level fastest. This is a commodity that will come in very handy around July when frequent trade partner, Boston, is shopping for Jason Varitek's replacement and use their surplus of pitching talent.

In the outfield the Rangers are six deep and are very talented. With MVP candidate Josh Hamilton leading the pack, the Rangers also have David Murphy and Nelson Cruz. Each is a young talent with a good amount of potential. Murphy has showed himself to be a gap hitter with 20 home run potential. He reminds me a lot of former Rangers outfielder Rusty Greer on the late 90's variety of the Rangers. Cruz had an 1.000+ OPS in limited at-bats last season. While that was probably a fluke, there is certainly enough reason to think that he could be the 2009 version of Carlos Quentin or Ryan Ludwick. He has a lot of power potential and put it together last year. Watch both of these guys become steady contributors to a solid lineup. Behind this talented young group, the Rangers have Brandon Boggs, Frank Catalanotto and Andruw Jones. Boggs is in a tough situation, because he is talented enough to get a look somewhere as a starter, but it won't be the Rangers unless there is an injury. He has a ceiling similar to Murphy. Catalanotto is nearing the end of his career, but he certainly has always been able to hit and is a great bat to have off the bench, with the ability to play the corner outfield, first-base or second-base in a pinch. Finally there is Andruw Jones. Three years removed from a 40 homer season and widely being considered one of the games best center fielders, he is now barely part of the Rangers roster. There is little reason to believe that he is going to return to form, but at 32, he could give the Rangers quite a bit in event of an injury.

Overall: The Rangers look to have an offense that will be the toast of Major League Baseball this season. Josh Hamilton could very well be on his way to an MVP award if he puts together a similar season on a winning team. The Rangers will also see development of at least one other stud offensive player whether that is Chris Davis or Nelson Cruz. They also will hope to have a full season of Hank Blalock now that he is a full time DH. This is going to be an offensive juggernaut for years to come, I can't wait to watch this team hit. Pitching is going to be a major struggle yet again for this team, but I do strongly believe that the Rangers are en route to a second-place finish in the AL West, and they will give the Angels all they can handle with 7 of their final 17 games head to head. Every starter for this team is an offensive threat, watch their youth develop closely this season.

Seattle Mariners Preview

2009-03-23T17:05:00.000-07:00

Overview: The 2008 Seattle Mariners were one of the most disappointing teams in baseball history. Coming off a season in which they won 87 games and with a team payroll at $117 million, this was a team that was supposed to win, yet they finished a terrible 61-101. In the process of this historical failure, the Mariners dropped GM Bill Bavasi after numerous big number free agent signings that will haunt the club for years to come. Now under the leadership of GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Don Wakamatsu, the Mariners look to turn the page slowly on the mess that is the Seattle Mariners. They brought back Ken Griffey Jr. for marketing purposes, because even if this is Griffey from the late 1990's, this is still not a contender. 2009 will also see the Mariners giving some long looks to prospects Jeff Clement, Mike Karp, Wladimir Balentin and Matt Tuiasosopo. None of whom appear to have big impact potential this season. They do have Felix Herandez and Erik Bedard atop their rotation, which should strike fear into opponents, but after that their pitching is very thin with a collection of well traveled veterans. Things in 2009 will not be as bad for the Mariners, but there is nothing to get excited about with this team besides Ken Griffey Jr. finishing off his hall of fame career in the city where it all began.

Starting Pitching:
The rotation for the Seattle Mariners is led off by an excellent righty-lefty tandem. On their best days, there may be no one better than Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. Each does carry a good amount of baggage with them. Hernandez has been the victim of poor run support throughout his career and does seem to struggle with consistency. Fortunately, he is turning 23 this April and has plenty of learning to come. Bedard was given the opportunity to be an ace last season for the Mariners and really struggled mightily after a fantastic 2007 season with Baltimore, he has never pitched more than 196.1 innings in his career and is a injury concern as well. I expect both pitchers to post better win totals in their 2009 seasons, but it won't be enough to carry the group that follows.

As mentioned earlier, Bavasi was prone to signing veterans to long and big contracts. Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva absolutely fit into that category. Washburn was not horrible last season, though he is no better than a 5th starter and Silva was absolutely terrible. Just a note to show how bad Silva was in 2008, he allowed 213 hits in 153.1 innings pitched. He found far too many bats and there is no reason to expect that he will bounce back in 2009, though the Mariners will give him a chance because of the 4 yr/48M contract that Silva signed prior to last season. There is one glimmer of hope in Brandon Morrow. Morrow showed excellent stuff and closers potential before the Mariners decided to move him to the starting rotation last season. If Morrow can improve his durability as injuries were a concern last season, he would be a valuable 3rd starter. While he is probably best suited for a spot in the bullpen because of injury concern, he is a guy to keep a close eye on.

Bullpen:
Mark Lowe, a guy with a 5.37 ERA in 2008 is slated to close. Miguel Batista is the set-up guy. Tyler Walker will be the next guy in line. All that tells me is yikes, this bullpen is bad. Batista and Walker have closing experience for losing teams and certainly will get looks as closer if Lowe loses his job. David Aardsma, Roy Corcoran and Cesar Jimenez fill out the rest of the bullpen. Again, that is bad news, however I will salvage some hope for the Mariners in that Aardsma has decent stuff and could develop into a solid reliever with the right mentoring. Also, Chad Cordero was signed by the Mariners to an incentive laden deal. This was a wise move and could certainly help the Mariners by the mid-season as he returns from injury. If he gets the ball in the 9th, he would be in a very similar situation to that of his time in Washington, a great reliever in a bad bullpen on a bad team. The situation in the bullpen is not good for the Mariners any way that you look at it. Fortunately, the Mariners can look to manufacture some quality arms this season to prepare them better for the future. Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow could both be quality relievers with the right teacher.

Offense:
Ichiro Suzuki is the only all-star candidate in a lineup that will be very weak. Suzuki, is one of the greatest contact hitters in baseball still, and he may eclipse 2000 hits this season for his MLB career. Suzuki still has great speed and plays a fantastic right field. It really disappointed me that Ichiro did not want to play centerfield for the Mariners last season because he makes that team so much better in centerfield with plus range and arm speed. That job belongs to Franklin Gutierrez this season, acquired from Cleveland. Gutierrez does not project to be a big impact player, but he does play solid defense and might quietly be a .260/20/70 guy if everything works out for him. In left-field the Mariners will start with Wladimir Balentin, but after a .202 batting average in 2008, I don't like his chances to develop into much more than a power bat off the bench beyond this season.

On the infield, the Mariners look a bit better than they do elsewhere. Russell Branyan, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt and Adrian Beltre compose a defensively challenged but decent offensive infield. Branyan never managed to control his strikeouts enough to be a starter at the Major League level, but will be given the opportunity once more at first-base. He is not a good defensive player and has very poor range. He makes a great power bat off the bench, but will start until Mike Karp is given the job at first. Jeff Clement will also be given looks at first-base and Chris Shelton is hanging around as well. Jose Lopez is another defensively challenged player that could work out best playing first-base. He hit .297 with 17 homers and 89 RBI's, which are great numbers for a second-baseman. The Mariners do have Ronny Cedeno backing him up, who is a defensive whiz without a stick. Adrian Beltre has proven now that his one 50HR season in Los Angeles was a fluke, but he still has above average power for his position and will be an above average player for third-base. He has another large contract and if the Mariners find any takers, he will be gone, but for now he is the second strongest bat on this team, behind Ichiro. Finally, Yuniesky Betancourt is a defensive whiz, following the Cristian Guzman career path. He has played at least 153 games in each of his three full big league seasons, so he will be around. Do not expect much power, but .280 is probably reasonable to expect, but he will not get on base (career OBP is .023 higher than career BA). He is not a long term solution, but he will play until the Mariners can develop or acquire a better option.

Behind the plate, the Mariners have a lot of questions. Another poor move by the previous regime was to re-sign Kenji Johjima through 2011 with their top prospect, Jeff Clement coming up. Johjima was terrible last season and Clement had a slow start to his big league career. This will be an interesting situation to follow because of injuries to Clement and declining production of Johjima. I would like to see Clement get as many opportunities as possible in the lineup. Unfortunately for the Mariners, I see that at first-base, which leaves a gaping hole at catcher because Johjima's bat speed is way down and is likely not coming back.

Ken Griffey Jr. will be the DH for most games. That is where he belongs now with his defense decling, though he will probably get some repetitions in Left-Field from time to time. It is nice to see him back in Seattle, but he will not be an impact DH. This is another weakness for the Mariners, but at least it'll be fun to watch.

Projections: It is pretty easy to see that this is a team that is in disarray. The Mariners have made the right first-steps to rebuilding with hiring Jack Zduriencik. He is known for his ability to build a farm system, which is exactly what the Mariners need. They have plenty of resources and with the right player development plan, this team could contend in 2011 at the earliest. This will be one of the worst teams in baseball again this season and at the bottom of the AL West. If you can bare the rest of the team, keep an eye on Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard and Brandon Morrow. If they are healthy, they will be a solid 1-3. Jeff Clement could break onto the scene this year as well.

Oakland A's Preview

2009-03-16T13:56:00.000-07:00

Overview: The new variety of the Oakland Athletics promises to be a bit more interesting to watch for A's fans than the team that Oakland produced in 2008. Billy Beane had a very agressive start to his offseason, acquiring Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies. Then Beane made some excellent maneuvers to bring in some of the best bargains of the winter. Jason Giambi (1 year, 5.25M w/2010 club option), Orlando Cabrera (1 year, 4M) and Nomar Garciaparra (1 year, 1M) all came in at very reasonable prices and provide the A's with leadership that they needed. It is going to be particularly fun watching to see if Giambi or Garciaparra still have another season left in their bats. Those four moves certainly do change the way that teams will look at the A's, but there are still plenty of holes to fill on this team and plenty of new faces that fans will have to acquaint ourselves with over the summer. One thing is for certain, the 2009 A's are going to be interesting to watch as a potential contender for the balanced AL West crown.

Starting Pitching:

After all-star Justin Duchscherer, the A's have four starting pitchers that are not household names yet, but all talented, young and competitive. With the rich history that the A's have for developing quality arms, it would not surprise me at all to see one or two of this group develop into top end of the rotation starters, with 25 being the oldest . The group currently consists of: Dana Eveland, Sean Gallagher, Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden. On their extended roster, just one starting pitcher is over the age of 30, Justin Duchscherer. Watch out for the A's pitching staff this season because any one of those four could develop into top-two starters. I am going to say that I believe in Dallas Braden to make a big contribution to the team this season. For now, the starting rotation is a weakness because of its overall inexperience, but it could end up a strength. Particularly if Duchscherer stays healthy for the entire season.

Bullpen:

What other team do you know of that has had two relief pitchers with respective ERA's of 1.06 and 0.59 in more than 45innings of work for each pitcher. I can't think of any teams in my time watching baseball where this has happened and the 2008 A's had Joey Devine and Brad Zeigler hoist those gaudy numbers. This is exactly why Huston Street became expendable in the offseason trade for Matt Holliday. Before the A's get to Zeigler and Devine in the late innings, the A's have Jerry Blevins, Russ Springer, Santiago Casilla and Mike Wuertz. Blevins is the only lefty in the bullpen, but he is young and can battle. Springer was brought in this offseason and at 40 he posted a 2.52 ERA in 50.1 innings with the Cardinals last season. He is going to provide the veteran leadership in the bullpen for the rest of the group, who are relatively inexperienced. Casilla and Wuertz round out the bullpen and will be good in the middle relief role. While none of these names are going to be nationally known, I would expect the A's bullpen to be among the best in baseball in 2009. If you look at their numbers from 2008, the highest ERA of the bunch was 3.92 (Casilla). If Zeigler and Devine can continue their dominance at the end of games, this is going to keep the A's close throughout the season.

Offense:

The A's lineup projects to be heavy on the lefties, built around a very powerful righty, Matt Holliday. If all goes according to play the lineup for the A's will look something like this:

Ryan Sweeney, CF (L)
Orlando Cabrera, SS (R)
Jason Giambi, 1B (L)
Matt Holliday, LF (R)
Jack Cust, DH (L)
Eric Chavez, 3B (L)
Kurt Suzuki, C (R)
Mark Ellis, 2B (R)
Travis Buck, RF (L)

That lineup is fairly well distributed, and they should really match up well against average right-handed starters, but could struggle against lefties with around 300 strikeouts coming from Giambi and Cust alone. Ryan Sweeny is not your typical leadoff hitter, but he showed the ability to get on base and make contact. Orlando Cabrera also will make contact, but he is not as good of an OBP guy as the typical Beane product. Bringing Giambi back to Oakland was a great move by my estimation because it gives the A's another legitimate power option and a fan favorite, but he is not the MVP winner from years ago. I also worry about Matt Holliday because he is moving from one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball to one of the least. I do not expect to see him hitting .340 this season, but he is too good at making contact and putting the ball in play to drop far below .300. I do not expect to see his power numbers be much higher than 30 homers, which could make him a good #3 hitter, if it did not put three lefties in a row (Giambi, Cust, Chavez). Jack Cust and Eric Chavez will not hit for a high average. Cust will strike out a ton, but still get on base enough to keep his job. Chavez has been injured too much in the last five seasons to make me think that he will be around for more than 200 at-bats, but if he is, he plays excellent defense and has power. Mark Ellis has been an average second-baseman in his career, with decent power for his position. Last season, his batting average hit a low .233, which makes him one of the weaker second-basemen. I do not expect that Oakland will wait too long on him and a replacement could be coming from within in the form of Bobby Crosby, Nomar Garciaparra or Jack Hannahan. The other two guys in the lineup are still developing. Kurt Suzuki and Travis Buck. Suzuki posted solid contact numbers in 2008 and could become a Bengie Molina-type hitter without 100 pounds in taquito's. I will be interested in watching Suzuki hit in 2009, because it is obvious that he can make solid contact, but if he can add some power to his bat, he would become a top-10 catcher. Buck had a good 2007 debut, hitting .288 in around 250 at-bats, but in 2008 his average dipped to .226. He strikes out a ton for a guy without much power. He also gets on base, which will earn him another shot to make this an everyday job for him. Like Ellis, if that does not happen, there could be a solution from within the organization. Rajai Davis has lightning quick speed and could add a different dynamic to a slow lineup. Chris Denorfia is 28, doesn't have much power, but can get on base and could plug a hole temporarily. Finally Aaron Cunningham is coming from the minors and could be a perfect replacement for Buck come May after some further seasoning at AAA Sacremento.

Projections: This is going to be an average team in an average division. The Angels appear to have the advantage over the other three teams, at least today, but the A's have a ton of upside with a young starting rotation and some mature bats in their lineup this season. The A's have closed the gap, and in what will be a division that could be decided by 5 games or less for the first three spots, I predict the A's to finish 3rd right around .500. There will be issues as to whether or not Billy Beane can keep Matt Holliday under contract or trade him, which will be talked about frequently come July. Watch out for Kurt Suzuki and Dallas Braden to develop this season.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Preview

2009-03-08T19:29:00.000-07:00

Overview: The Angels were widely regarded as being the best team in the American League in 2008, yet they were unable to make it past the Boston Red Sox again in a playoff series. The Angels had a tough offseason as well, losing both their best offensive player and closer to the New York teams (Mark Teixeira to the Yankees and Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets). The Angels replaced those two with Bobby Abreu and Brian Fuentes, certainly a downgrade. Also in recent news, Vladimir Guerrero told reporters that he was 34 years old, as opposed to the 33 that he was believed to be. Perhaps that explains his severe decline as he no longer appears to be a major impact hitter at this stage in his career anymore. This does not bode well for the Angels as all of the other three teams in the division made improvements during the offseason. This team is going to live and die by their pitching and ability to play small-ball. A Mike Scoscia team will do all of the right things and play small ball well. They will be in the mix, but their days as the toast of the American League are in the past now.

Starting Pitching: The Angels starting staff features John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders and Dustin Moseley. This is going to be one of the strongest starting staffs in Major League Baseball in 2009 with Lackey leading the charge. John Lackey is a seasoned ace now and can be relied upon to win 15-20 games when healthy. Ervin Santana too has shown that he has ace stuff. He also seems to have put his unusual home/away split issue in the past. He struck out 214 batters last season in 219 innings and I feel as though the best is yet to come with him as he is just 26. Like his brother (Jeff), Jered Weaver looks as though he has leveled off after a good start. He was very average last season and I would not expect much more from him until he can get his velocity back. He will keep the Angels in games, but with an offense that appears a lot less powerful this season, he is not going to be winning 15 games, 10 may be a struggle. Joe Saunders looked great last season after getting off to a hot start and then coming back down to earth. He did finish the season with the most wins on the Angels staff and he is a quality left-handed pitcher. He does not have the stuff that Santana has, or the long-term success of Lackey, but Joe Saunders might just be the best pitcher on this staff by the end of the 2009 season though he will not do it with flash. Finally, Dustin Moseley is the current 5th starter on the Angels, but he probably won't finish that way with Kelvim Escobar coming back from injury by mid-season or sooner. Moseley may not even hold this position if another starter in camp outshines him (Nick Adenhardt). Once Escobar returns to the mound, this staff is really going to be one of the top three in baseball. Injury history is the factor with this rotation. Lackey was out last season, Santana just got injured this season, Escobar has not pitched since 2007. Again, the Angels will live and die by their rotation because if a starter is injured, the next best option would be Dustin Moseley, which is not going to be pretty. When healthy, watch out.

Bullpen:

Having lost a record-setting closer from last season would be a big deal one would think, but the Angels have signed Brian Fuentes and more importantly have Jose Arredondo, who did nothing but impress in his rookie season (1.62 ERA in 61IP). Fuentes may have the closers job now, but Arredondo should already be putting pressure on him. The Angels also bring back Scot Shields and Darren Oliver to be an excellent L-R duo in the middle to late innings. Shields is no longer the dominant force he once was, but he and Oliver are solid relievers. Justin Speier will also bulk up the middle relief corps for the Angels. The rest of the Angel bullpen is going to be unknowns. Kevin Jesper and Jason Bulger are currently holding onto the last two spots, with a combined 42.1 major league innings combined. The Angels will have great middle relief depth. They have a great young arm in Arredando and could stand to pick up another long relief option. The bullpen looks to be a strength again for a Mike Scoscia team.

Offense:

At the end of the 2008 season, the Angels had probably the best lineup in baseball. They could do it all and showed incredible depth. Without Mark Teixeira, the entire complexion of their lineup has changed. The Angels are looking like a collection of aging outfielders and exciting and athletic infielders. They probably will not have anyone eclipse 30 home runs in 2009, though they will have plenty of 20 homer guys. The Angels lineup is set up perfectly with contact and speed in Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick. Figgins has great speed and will get on base and score plenty of runs. Kendrick is a great contact hitter and could very well hit .330 in 2009. What the Angels need to worry about here is how long these two will be healthy. Each have been struck by injuries in the past and it will be crucial for them to stay healthy for the success of this team. After the top two, the Angels have a slew of outfielders that would have been murderer's row in 2002. Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu are slated as being the teams outfield starters. All showed declining numbers in 2008 at the plate with Guerrero and Abreu slowing down in the outfield significantly. These three are no longer top-5 for their position, but they will be able to knock in runs. After those three, Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli will provide power from the DH and Catching positions, but that is about it for them. Kendry Morales takes over at first-base for Mark Teixeira. He will be given his first big chance to secure a starting spot, but so far, his MLB career has been lackluster with a career .249 average in 377 at-bats. Morales is a big guy with power potential, and his development could be what makes or breaks this offense. 25-30 homers could lead to big dividends for this lineup. Finally, the shortstop duty will be given to Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis. These two pesky hitters are the perfect fit in the 9 spot, each plays very solid defense at short as well. Neither are going to be all-stars, but they won't hurt the Angels.

As far as depth, the Angels are well equipped for success. Gary Matthews Jr. is a 40 Million dollar mistake, but he is certainly a good 4th outfielder and Reggie Willits offers incredible speed off the bench and in the outfield. I would have personally liked to have seen Willits in the outfield this season because he does have great speed and was a top rookie of the year candidate in 2007, before losing his job in 2008 to a healthily paid outfield. He has virtually no power, but would be a great #9 hitter for a team in need of some speed because he gets on base (he belongs in Oakland). The Angels also have a talented backup catcher in Jeff Mathis, who would be ready to take some at-bats if Mike Napoli falls off this season. Robb Quinlan has been a mainstay on the bench in Anaheim for years and will probably get some at-bats this season if things do not go well for Kendry Morales. Former top prospect Brandon Wood is hanging around the Four-A level and it is now or never for him. The Angels have great depth, but that will not help an offense that has slowed significantly between years.

Projections:

I see the Angels being right there again in 2009 for the NL West crown. The problem for the Angels is that their entire divison has improved, so the competition has gotten a lot tighter after seeing the Angels win by 21 games in 2008. This division is going to be a battle, much like the NL West has been for the last few seasons, but because of excellent depth and a solid bullpen, the Angels are in best position to win this division again in 2009 and will win the division finishing with a record that will be around 85-77. Watch out for Kendry Morales on this team, he could be the difference between 80 or 90 wins for this team.

NL East Final Thoughts

2009-03-08T19:16:00.001-07:00

Predicted Results:
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets (Wild Card winner)
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals

This appears to me to be the strongest division in the National League, by quite a good margin. I pick the Braves to outlast the Mets and Phillies in quite a dog fight because they have depth and will get Tim Hudson back for the stretch. Also given the Mets recent struggles in closing out the season and the Phillies starting pitching, the Braves look like they are going to be consistent all season. Injuries will be a huge factor in who wins this division with three very evenly balanced teams. Last season, the Braves were hit hard with injuries and added nothing but depth and durable veterans this offseason, in doing so, they are in great position to outlast their opponets this season. It will be important to watch the Marlins and Nationals, each of whom have legitimate talent and will be pesky to close out. One final reason why the Braves are going to be the NL East champions in 2009 is that they have the best young talent compared to the Mets and Phillies. They have 2-3 immediate contributors in 1B Jason Heyward, OF Jordan Schafer and RHP Tommy Hanson, not to mention 6-7 major league outfielders and 8 legitimate starting pitching candidates. This is a team prepared to make a run in 2009. Braves win the NL East in 2009.

Washington Nationals Preview

2009-03-04T13:08:00.000-08:00

Overview: In their brief history in Washington, the Nationals have never made the playoffs. There is no reason for much of a reason to expect that to change in 2009. On the positive for the Nationals is that Jim Bowden is no longer in charge of that franchise after resigning during the middle of an ugly political issue where Bowden is being investigated for poor signing tactics of Dominican players. Prior to leaving, Bowden stacked the Nationals with slow, poor defensive corner players. The Nationals should be better in 2009 and will absolutely factor into who wins the division, but they should be well out of the race by June. This franchise needs athleticism all over the diamond and a makeover to the pitching staff. They will likely make some trades before the season starts, but even with those trades, the Nationals are in trouble.

Starting Pitching: Garrett Olson, Daniel Cabrera, John Lannan, Shawn Hill and Colin Balester are the five pitchers that are currently slated in the Nationals rotation. Yikes! There is a lot of youth and potential for improvement with this staff, however none of these pitchers would have earned much better than a 3rd or 4th starter spot on any other team. The oldest starter of the bunch is Daniel Cabrera (27), so there certainly is room for development. What is going to frustrate Nationals fans this season is that their starting rotation is going to walk a lot of batters. Scott Olsen and John Lannan have average WHIP totals at 1.31 and 1.34 respectively, but of the other three starters, the lowest WHIP from 2008 was 1.5. The Nationals really need to address this key fundamentals issues and should consider bringing in a historically known control pitcher (Bret Saberhagen?) to help aid this staff because it is going to be a major problem

Bullpen: ESPN has the following six pitchers listed as the current bullpen for the Nationals: Joel Hanrahan, Saul Rivera, Steven Shell, Jason Bergmann, Garrett Mock and Tyler Clippard. Believe it or not, this is a talented group of young pitchers. There are no dominant pitchers among this bunch, but each of them has been successful at the Major League Level. Hanrahan is slated to be their closer and he should battle, but I wouldn't expect greatness from him. One player that should be mentioned for this bullpen is lefty, Mike Hinckley. He went 13.2 innings in 2008 without allowing a run. He deserves a spot in this bullpen, even a look at the rotation given his 0.80 WHIP. This bullpen reminds me of the ones that Pittsburgh has put together over the years, lots of young arms that quietly get the job done.

Offense: Here, former GM Jim Bowden has put together a plethora of corner players with tons of power potential, but that is about it. Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young, Wily Mo Pena, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns and Josh Willingham are currently battling for three positions. Also note that half of those players were formerly Cincinnati Reds products. It didn't work in Cincinnati for Bowden and it doesn't look like it will work in Washington. Once those position battles are set, the rest of the roster appears to be full of exciting young players. Lastings Milledge and Ryan Zimmerman have absolute star potential, though this is probably their last season to be considered rising stars. That leaves Anderson Hernandez and Cristian Guzman starting up the middle with Jesus Flores behind the plate. Hernandez is a former Mets prospect that was highly regarded for his defense, but last year in limited time with the Nationals, he hit well over .300. If that continues, he will absolutely keep a starting job with the Nats displacing an aging Ronnie Belliard. Cristian Guzman came back from the depths below the Mendoza-Line to hit .316 and really was the offensive star for the Nationals in 2008. This defense up the middle is going to provide DC fans with some stunning double plays, but offensively they could go either way. If they hit like they did in 2008, this team could have the potential to hang in longer than expected. Finally, Jesus Flores is slated to be the starter this season for the Nationals after sticking as a rule-5 pick in 2007 and working in 300+ at-bats last year. He is a talented young player. The best case scenario for him in 2009 would be .275, 15, 80, but I do not see that being impossible for him. Either way, this guy will give the Nationals more than Paul Lo Duca and Jonnie Estrada and that's great news for them.

Projections: I predict the Nationals to finish in 5th place in the NL East with the cloud of uncertainty around this organization set from the top down. I look at the Nationals and outside of Adam Dunn and Cristian Guzman, this is a team with a lot of young talent that could turn into a surprise story like the Rays did in 2009. I do not expect this to happen because a lot of good things would have to come together and I do not see the positive encouragement from management on this team as the Rays had in 2009, but the youth and talent is certainly there. I see Ryan Zimmerman and John Lannan developing into solid players this season. The parts are there for the Nationals to be a surprise team in 2009 and will certainly be in position to play spoiler. I think that they will be a lot more fun to watch in 2009 than they were in 2008.

Ken Burns' Baseball Documentary

2009-03-04T11:52:00.001-08:00

As a baseball fan, I regret to admit that I have not been able to see the Baseball documentary until after my 22nd birth date. I came home this afternoon from work with the Braves to turn on the Ken Burns documentary on baseball. Not that I needed it all that much, but it forced me to see the beauty of the game once again. If you claim to be a baseball fan and have not seen this documentary, you need to immediately. I am on the first DVD courtesy of Netflix, and can't wait to get through the next 9. Here is a sample of some quotes that beautifully articulate the nature of the game.

"I think that there are three things that America will be known for 2000 years from now when they study ancient cultures: The Constitution, Jazz Music and Baseball. Those are the three most beautifully designed things that this culture has done."

"There is no parameter that prohibits you from performing more excellently"

"It's a very peaceful thing, there's grass there's outdoors. It's the wonder of holding your dad's hand and seeing that huge space where men play a little boy's game."

Watch it!

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

2009-03-04T11:52:00.000-08:00

Overview: The 2008 World Series Champions will be back to challenge for the NL East crown once again. This offseason, the Phillies added Raul Ibanez, while subtracting Pat Burrell and that was about the only big change that was made so theoretically, they should be in contention again. I am not sold on the Phillies and was not last October either. It came down to the Phillies getting hot at the right time and they took the World Series. With a weaker pitching staff than the other top two teams in their division and an injury concern to their best hitter, Chase Utley, I am very doubtful about the staying power of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Starting Pitching: The Phillies rotation, led by Cole Hamels should be fairly solid. Hamels should be in conversation for the Cy Young award this season, every season for the next several years for that matter. After him however, the Phillies are stretched pretty thin on 4th starters. Brett Myers showed last season that he can still start, but he is not going to be an ace or anything close for that matter. Joe Blanton will boast a 4.50 ERA, Jamie Moyer is 46 and Kyle Kendrick suffered big setbacks in his sophomore season. Based on the fact that the Phillies play 81 home games in a offensive heaven, this is going to be a weakness for them compared to the Mets and Braves who figure to be involved in the race in September.

Bullpen: Brad Lidge became Brad Lidge again last season, not blowing a single regular season save. I don't expect that again, but I do expect him to continue his dominance of the NL now that he has found a comfort zone. He is also the best closer in the NL East (if JJ Putz is indeed setting up Francisco Rodriguez). Getting to Lidge is going to be a bit of a challenge, though Ryan Madson was pitching extremely well last fall. His career has been inconsistent, but he did look locked in at the end of last season. If he has that same look in April/May, this is going to be a solid end of the bullpen, but I am not 100% sure that he will maintain that dominance. JC Romero, Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey and Scott Eyre will also be in the mix for the remaining bullpen spots. This is not a dominant group, but much like the Braves, they can mix and match very well.

Offense: First, I am going to start at first. Ryan Howard is probably baseball's best power hitter. He also falls into the category of a player that I would hate to have on my team because he strikes out far too much and hits for a mediocre average. His 2006 season (.313, 58, 149) was amazing, in the two years since, his batting average has dropped lower each season, with strikeouts ending at 199. Howard has incredible power numbers, but is going to have to do more this season if the Phillies are to make the playoffs. Chase Utley injured his hip last season, playing through the pain to the best season for NL second-basemen. At one point last season, before the injury, he was having an MVP campaign, then his production really hit a wall with the injury. If his hip is in good shape, he will be in an MVP conversation again, but I worry that his hip is going to take some time to heal. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino will be setting up Howard and Utley. Rollins had a down year in 2008 and Victorinio was doing all of the right things for a scrappy outfielder. Rollins will need to rebound in 2009 and Victorino needs to maintain on his 2008 season. After the big four, the Phillies have Raul Ibanez and Jason Werth. Those two project to both come in around .280, 25,90. Ibanez has put up exactly those numbers for several seasons now. The lineup will finish with Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz. Neither of whom shine offensively, but will be useful. One issue I have with this lineup is that it is very lefty heavy. If it is a lineup of Rollins-Victorino-Howard-Utley-Ibanez-Werth-Feliz-Ruiz-Pitcher, the lineup goes S-S-L-L-L-R-R-R. That is vicious versus right-handed pitching and could be painful for them against left-handed pitching. Fortunately, only Scott Olsen, John Lannan, Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, Andrew Miller and Tom Glavine are left-handed pitchers in the NL East. The situation is further retarded by having three more left-handed bats on the bench, which may be more impactful. Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins and Greg Dobbs are all lefties and could force opposing managers to change pitchers twice to get the right situation. The bench looks solid with backups Chris Coste, Ronny Paulino and Marcus Giles also in consideration for bench spots. Only Paulino is still young enough to have a potential as a starter. You may remember him from the Pirates hitting .310 in 20o6. He has been accused of having a poor work ethic and was traded this offseason. I have always liked this guy for hitting .310 as a catcher. He may steal some at-bats from Carlos Ruiz if he shows that he can hit for solid contact again.

Projections: 3rd in the NL East. The 2008 Phillies lucked into the playoffs by another Mets falloff and their getting hot at the right time. I was happy and very surprised for the Phillies in 2008 because it shows that getting hot at the right time can be enough to win a World Series. I do not think that the Phillies will be as lucky in 2009 because the Braves have improved so much. It may be a 3-4 game difference between the top three teams in this division as PECOTA projects as well because they are all so very close. I chose the Phillies to be the odd team out this season because their pitching staff depth is not nearly the same as compared to the Mets and Braves. Ryan Howard is the X-Factor here. If Howard has another career year, the Phillies will have enough to get into the playoffs, perhaps even win the division. I don't expect much different from Howard, which is why I maintain 3rd in the East.

New York Mets Preview

2009-03-03T06:46:00.000-08:00

Overview: The New York Mets continued their dedication towards making big name additions in the free agent market this offseason by adding Francisco Rodriguez the season after his record breaking number of saves. Within a week, the Mets acquired an even better closer, by my estimation, in JJ Putz. Now the Mets have put together the best back end of the rotation in Major League Baseball, though it is inverted. Everything else will stay the same, which may not be good for the team that has left its fans nothing short of heartbroken. The New York Mets offense is as inconsistent as they come, with the exception of David Wright. There are times when Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran are locked in and are some of the most frightening hitters in all of baseball, but that does not happen often enough, and it hardly ever happens when they click at the same time. This is a team that is full of talent that just does not seem to be able to put it together. They have improved the back end of the bullpen, while harming the front-end. Their depth is fairly decent, but who actually expects Fernando Tatis to hit .300 again? Not me. I think the Mets have a lot to be excited about this season for the 8th and 9th innings, but they lack consistency which will hurt them in September for the third consecutive season.

Starting Pitching: This is a good rotation. Led by one of the best pitchers of the decade, Johan Santana, whom the Mets can expect to have another great season. After that they have John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey. None of whom are aces, but all of whom will keep games close. The fifth spot in the rotation is currently slated as being Lvian Hernandez, though Freddy Garcia and Tim Redding will have a lot to say regarding that fifth spot. Any of those three pitchers would be a valuable veteran arm that will also keep games close. This is a strong rotation that will probably be the best in the division when all is said and done. I do wonder how many innings each will go for. Santana is a lock for 200+ innings, but the others may struggle to get to that plateau, which will expose a major weakness, middle-relief.

Bullpen: The back end of the bullpen is phenomenal. It is without a doubt the most talented setup/closer combination in baseball this season. In signing Francisco Rodriguez, the Mets picked up a proven closer. He did have a record setting 2008 season with 62 saves and a 2.24 ERA. Red flags went up when I saw how his velocity has dropped 6MPH. If he is going to continue to be a dominant closer, he will have to do it in Trevor Hoffman fashion, setting up his curveball effectively. I also noted last year that Rodriguez had many saves that were with a 3 run lead that he made close, yet they were still saves. Fortunately for the Mets, their setup man, JJ Putz is probably a better closer than Rodriguez. In 2007, Putz was the most dominating closer in baseball. He was pretty much as automatic as they come. Assuming his health issues are behind him, Putz could be closing games if Rodriguez struggles. Leading up to these two, there is not much. I did get to see Eddie Kunz pitch in the Cape Cod Baseball League as well as in Binghamton, and this guy has dynamic stuff. His control is where he will struggle, but he has the chance to grow a lot in 2009 with Putz in front of him, a guy who has very similar stuff. After that, the rest of the group consists of Duaner Sanchez, Brian Stokes and Pedro Feliciano. They are all fairly average arms at this point in their careers which could mean headaches for Jerry Manuel, but the most replaceable part in baseball is middle-relief so this is a bit of a weakness right now that could end up being a strength with the right moves throughout the season.

Offense: The outlook for the offense projects to be bright. Though there is some aging talent in Brian Schneider (C), Carlos Delgado (1B), Luis Castillo (2B) that are all likely to continue their respective declines in 2009, there is also a solid infusion of players in the prime of their career and youth. Ryan Church, Daniel Murphy and Carlos Beltran project to be the best outfield in the NL East at least with numbers. Church was on his way to a career year in 2008, before injuries slowed him down and Murphy looks to be a great contact and gap hitter. Carlos Beltran is probably the hitter with the most talent and explosion, yet his career has shown him to be inconsistent when he hits for power. He will still be a very talented player for the Mets, but who knows what kind of season he will have? He is capable of an MVP season, but the Mets may only get the production of a 5 hitter from him. David Wright and Jose Reyes make for quite a talented left side of the infield, each can make plays defensively that will take your breath away. Offensively, Wright is showing himself to be a .300, 30, 100 machine. Reyes is all over the place. he is very prone to erratic performances at the plate, which only harms the Mets because their offense comes and goes with Reyes since he is leading off. Overall, this is a very solid offense when they are all playing to their capability. Unfortunately, that does not happen for an entire season, which is what will harm this team. The bench is looking fairly solid. Ramon Castro, Alex Cora, Marlon Anderson, Jeremy Reed and Fernando Tatis figure to be the main five guys that will be on the Mets bench and each will bring something different to the table. Castro, Cora, Anderson and Tatis are veterans and Reed still has a chance to develop into something more than a defensive replacement and occasional starter. The Mets are strong in their bench.

Projection: 2nd Place in the NL East, 1st in Wildcard. The Mets are going to be there all season, but will be up and down. The back end of their bullpen has improved, but their offense is no different from any of the last several years. They will be inconsistent. Even if they do make it to the playoffs this season as I predict because of the depth in the NL Central and the lack of talent in the NL West, I doubt that they have much of a chance at playing deep into October because of this inconsistency. Watch Daniel Murphy very closely. He could end up as a .300/20/80 guy from nowhere.

Florida Marlins Preview

2009-03-01T12:50:00.000-08:00

Overview: The 2009 Florida Marlins are full of players that are going to take 2 months for even the most avid MLB fans to be able to answer the question: who was that? Yet, this continues the Marlins historical trend of being able to take young players and build competitive teams with them. The Marlins also have one of the best players in baseball. Hanley Ramirez blew up last season into being considered the most valuable fantasy player in the game by many including Yahoo! sports. It's really a shame that Ramirez is a Marlin because he would be a superstar in many other markets. Though as their 2008 offseason shows, it will only be another 2 more seasons before he is traded because they cannot (or is it will not?) afford his services after that. The Marlins should field another competitive team, but it will most likely not be enough to keep in touch with the top three NL East teams.

Starting Pitching: This is a staff of guys that are incredibly talented, yet nobody has gotten to know them yet. After Ricky Nolasco (26) and Josh Johnson (25) the Marlins offer Chris Volstad (22), Anibal Sanchez (25) and Andrew Miller (23). Nolasco wound up the 2008 season with 15 wins and Johnson returned from injury strongly with a 7-1 record and sub-4.00 ERA. The top of their rotation could certainly win 30+ games for them if healthy. Volstad pitched very well in his first major-league season last year and could end up being the ace of their staff if he continues to pitch as he did in 2008 (6-4, 2.88ERA). Sanchez has a no-hitter under his belt and is also returning from injury, but he did not fare as well as Johnson. He will be given the opportunity to return to form, though there is always another talented young pitcher ready for Fredi Gonzalez to give a shot. The fifth starter for this rotation is former first-round pick, Andrew Miller. Acquired in the trade for Miguel Cabrera last season, Miller struggled mightily with his control. At 23, there is plenty of time for him to turn into an ace, but he is going to have to harnass his control issues in order to become that ace. Burke Badenhop and Rich Vanden Hurk were both given starting opportunities in 2008 and would be first in line if an injury were to occur or Sanchez/Miller are unable to be effective. 1-3, the Marlins staff is going to keep games close. There will be some dominating performances as well by those top three, though there are no guarantees about the bottom two in the rotation.

Bullpen:
This is going to be where a lot of the "who was that?" comes from during the season. ESPN shows a bullpen of Matt Lindstrom, Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor, Logan Kensing, Jose Ceda and Taylor Tankersley. Lindstrom will be getting the save opportunities now that Kevin Gregg was sent to Chicago, and you can expect him to succeed in that role. Getting to him could be an adventure, though the Marlins have a lot of depth. Not mentioned in their bullpen is Henry Owens, Kiko Calero and Renyel Pinto. Each of whom are quality major league arms. Owens is returning from injury, but has closed games for the Marlins in the past. Calero is older now, but he has been around in the late innings before and Pinto is a lefty with decent stuff. This bullpen lacks a lights-out arm, but the Marlins have 8-9 quality relief arms. This will not be a strength of a weakness for the Marlins.

Offense:
Last season, the Florida Marlins offense was known for power in the infield. They received 29+ homers from each player on their infield, Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez and Jorge Cantu. Mike Jacobs was traded to the Kansas City Royals this offseason for financial reasons, though the other three are back. One player that was harmed because of the success of the others on the infield was Dallas McPherson who hit 40+ homers in AAA Albequerque. Now he has earned the starting spot at third-base, moving Cantu across the diamond to first-base. The power on the infield should be just about the same, time will tell if Cantu can maintain his success and if McPherson can hit above. 220 against Major League pitching. Consistency is also an issue for Dan Uggla, who can be one of the hardest or easiest outs in baseball depending on the week. Their offense will be best classified as being inconsistent because of these guys. The outfield situation looks to be Cody Ross, Cameron Maybin and Jeremy Hermida. Ross has tons of raw power, but his batting average will most likely never eclipse .240. Maybin was another top prospect acquired from Detroit for Miguel Cabrera. Maybin did not explode onto the scene in 2008 as was expected, but he will be in good position to take the lead-off spot in the lineup with Jorge Cantu, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla behind him for protection that should certainly help. Jeremy Hermida has been another inconsistent bat for the Marlins. He is still young as well and could become a 30 home run hitter this season, but he needs to cut down on the strike outs to be a solid hitter. The catching situation falls to John Baker and Mike Rabelo. Baker and Rabelo are high-contact, low-power hitters. Watch Baker who posted very solid (.299, 5, 32) numbers in 2008, with an OBP nearly 100 points higher than his batting average. I like Baker's numbers a lot and he could be a fantasy sleeper at a traditionally weak position. The Marlins bench will populated by Rabelo, Wes Helms, Alfredo Amezaga for sure, with the other few spots up for grabs. This will be a weakness for the Marlins as they will not have much to offer in pinch-hitting situations.

Projections: The Florida Marlins are not going to be in conversation for the NL East crown this year, the reason for this is that their offense is just going to be too inconsistent. Injuries are too much of a question with their starting staff, though do not take them lightly 1-3. The Marlins are absolutely going to be a factor in who wins the division, though do not expect them to make a play at the crown. Make yourself familiar with Hanley Ramirez, John Baker and Ricky Nolasco this season.

Atlanta Braves Preview

2009-02-22T22:02:00.001-08:00

Overview: In 2008, the Atlanta Braves ended their season at 72-90, their worst finish since 1990, the year before rattling off 14 consecutive division titles. The Braves seem to have reloaded themselves through trades and free agent acquisitions this offseason, uncharacteristic to their usual development of prospects, though with all out battle projected to occur throughout spring training between Jordan Schafer, Gregor Blanco, Brandon Jones and Josh Anderson there is plenty of youth looking to burst onto the scene in the 2009 season. The Braves do look like a team that will be very competitive in the division that produced the 2008 World Series Champions.

Starting Pitching: Their strength in 2009 is going to be their greatest weakness from 2008. The Braves starting rotation is looking very deep with new acquisitions Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami couples with Jair Jurrjens and Tom Glavine. Lowe and Vazquez are proven durable starters and will give the top of the Braves rotation some great innings and set up the bullpen for success. It would make sense to me that Vazquez is primed for the best season now that he is back in the National League where offense is at a premium. He finished 3rd in the AL in strikeouts in 2008, and from a fantasy perspective, he should throw a for few more this season. Lowe will be a solid contributor, though his defense may hurt him from time to time as he averages better than 60% groundballs to flyballs. He throws for strikes now, better than earlier in his career and has managed his demons better than when he was in Boston. The fans in Atlanta will be very supportive of him and he should be in great position to put together some strong years for the Braves. If history proves to repeat itself with Kenshin Kawakami, a veteran Japanese starting pitcher, he will put together a strong start to the season and then once offenses figure out his stuff, he will struggle towards the end of the season (see every Japanese starting pitcher's first season numbers). Kawakami will need to be prepared to adapt. Jair Jurrjens could develop well this season with Javier Vazquez pitching in front of him. The two have similar styles and demeanor's, each could end up with 15+ wins as well. The Braves finish the rotation with Tom Glavine. It will be nice to see him finish his career in a Braves uniform, but I don't see him pitching long into the season with arm troubles highlighting the twilight of his career. Jorge Campillo, Charlie Morton and Tommy Hanson will be ready to throw and Tim Hudson could be ready to go in September. Remember Jorge Campillo finished last season with a 8-7 record and a 3.91 ERA, the Braves are loaded with pitching depth after last season's debacle.

Bullpen:
The bullpen also looks to be a strength. Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano and Manny Acosta all recorded saves for the Braves in 2008. This season, Mike Gonzalez should be taking the ball in the 9th each time. He carries a history of arm trouble, as does Soriano, but the depth with other quality bullpen arms will be able to allow Bobby Cox to keep their arms fresh.

Offense:
Offensively, the Braves just picked up Garrett Anderson this past week, which makes their depth in the outfield pretty solid. Anderson and Matt Diaz promise to be a very good platoon capable of hitting .300, 30,100 and only providing the Braves with a $5,000,000 price tag. Jeff Francoeur will be getting the majority of at-bats in right-field, but if he does not return to form, it won't be long before younger players mentioned at the beginning get a look. It has been said that Josh Anderson is in the lead for the opening in centerfield after hitting .294 (.334OBP) in limited at-bats in 2008. Gregor Blanco and Jordan Shafer will also get looks for this job. The rest of the team is pretty well set with Brian McCann, Chipper Jones and Casey Kotchmann looking like they will be a solid heart of the order. Yunel Escobar looks like he has the opportunity to grow to become an Edgar Renteria-type player, which would be a lift to the offense, with Kelly Johnson next to him at second. Johnson is potentially the weakest link on this offense (assuming Francoeur returns to form). Johnson's numbers all fell in 2008 and he plays poor defense. It won't take long for Martin Prado to take at-bats away from Johnson. Prado hit .320 in 2008 and will be one of the strongest assets to Bobby Cox's bench in 2009. Prado, David Ross, Greg Norton, Omar Infante, Anderson/Diaz should complete the bench. This will be a strength for the
Braves as Bobby Cox can mix and match well with this group.

Projections:
PECOTA predicts the Braves and Phillies to tie for 2nd in the NL East at 90-72. I predict that the Braves could do a bit better than that record and be in position to finish the season stronger than the Mets or Phillies with the pending return of Tim Hudson. Their major weaknesses will be defense and the lead-off spot in the lineup. This team is going to be built on solid pitching and the offense will put the Braves in position for wins each night. This is not too much of a stretch as the top three teams in the NL East are going to be close, but I predict the Braves to resume their dominance of the in 2009 by winning the division.

Interview Tips

2009-02-19T13:25:00.000-08:00

Over the past couple of weeks I have been very fortunate to have been entrusted by the Braves to do some initial screening interviews for the job I held last summer, the Braves Around Town external marketing street team. I have heard some unreal responses to the questions I was asking and I figured that I would pass along some of the insight that this experience has given to me.

First, the way to express that you want a job in baseball is to explain that you wish to make a career in the field. I am guilty of saying that I am a fan of the game or that I am passionate about the sport, because that is true, but that response is truly a dime a dozen. Everyone applying for a job in baseball is a fan of the sport or knows something about it. Those who specifically state that they wish to make a career are absolutely making it know that they are serious about working in sports and immediately show a more professional side. From the interviewee's that I spoke with that shared this desire to make a career in sports, I believe that all were offered the position. The way that you state your purpose is certainly important and I have already changed the way I speak about my career aspirations. This may be one of the most important lessons that I learned through my first month at work.

Next, I have realized through these interviews and in discussions with full-time staff that baseball is entertainment for many, but it is more importantly a business. Having experienced nothing but the entertainment side of the industry up until the past three weeks, I was easily distracted from the fact that inside the office, the baseball industry is not unlike that of any other industry, with our product being ticket sales. Everything returns to ticket sales and realizing this is incredibly important. Part of interviewing for a position that I feel is necessary is to have a working knowledge of what you are applying for. When I had to take five minutes here and there to explain that this job has no player interaction or limited game day responsibilities when a clear description has been posted online, I have to think that the only reason why there is a resume on my desk is because the job seeker is dreaming of hanging out with players or watching the games for free. Knowing that even entry level positions such as these all relate back to the business functions of the team is necessary. Applicants that did not understand the position prior to the interview or that baseball is a business struggled in this process.

Finally, my last piece of advice would be to go through these interviews and have a positive and friendly attitude. Those who realized what the position required often maintained this attitude. Being able to demonstrate that you are a fun and friendly person is fairly easy to do in 10 minutes, but it is even more easy to show a negative and non-excitable personality. Even though baseball is a business, it is in the business of making people happy. Maintaining this upbeat and positive attitude is important in any industry, but particularly so in sports. It is absolutely necessary to be able to have fun while being a professional. It is called the entertainment industry and its employees need to demonstrate that they can entertain.

The purpose of this message is to pass on some of the best advice I have received and can give at this very early stage in my career to the hiring process for professional sports teams. You will rise to the top if you can demonstrate a positive attitude, a dedication towards a career in sports and knowledge of the business and the goals of the franchise or league that you desire to work in.

The best part about this first real full-time job in sports is that I learn something new with each passing day, perhaps each passing hour. I am very excited to commit those thoughts to writing and then to share with others. I hope this helps.

Steroids in Baseball

2009-02-11T08:56:00.000-08:00

The other night, I was having a great conversation with a friend of mine regarding the new steroid controversies that have spread in baseball throughout the past week. Two former MVP's, Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada, have admitted their former use of performance enhancers after previously stating that they had never tried these substances. In the society that has shunned steroid users is faced with an unusual predicament. The greatest statistical player of the last decade, a player on pace to shatter records in many power categories, is now a known steroid user. This is the game's most prominent player and baseball cannot hide or shun Alex Rodriguez as they have Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmiero. Rodriguez has another decade on his playing contract and is not going anywhere.

I think that it is time for someone to make a bold statement. In a society that is so numbers oriented, I think that it is time to make it known that the steroid era is a significant part of baseball history and the best players of the steroid era deserve to rise to the top and be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Pushing the Hall of Fame credentials for Mark McGwire would be one way to make this statement. McGwire and Sammy Sosa are responsible for the success and prosperity of the game today. During 1998, the race to pass the Maris home run plateau was a huge part of the game. The dominant power seasons put forth by McGwire were during a time when performance enhancer use was rampant in baseball. The reason for this is that players wanted to perform better, which would lead to earning more. Why would team officials, the office of the commissioner or the players want to hinder this? Higher performance (higher utility) would lend to more productive and successful teams. So for the better part of two decades, the use of performance enhancing drugs ran rampant in Major League Baseball. In 2004, three seasons after McGwire retired with 583 home runs and the legacy as being one of the greatest power hitters of all time, that was the first time that the MLB and the MLBPA agreed to terms on a substantial testing and disciplinary response to the use of performance enhancing drugs based on pressure from the U.S. government and the World Anti-Doping Agency.

Up until 2004, performance enhancing drugs were part of the game. The players who rose to the top during those years still deserve to be recognized for their accomplishments. For purists who like to compare historical players to modern players, I feel that is unfair and impossible. The game changes over time and innovation is always the driving force to that change. Performance enhancing drugs are just one innovation that baseball players used to heighten their ability. This is much like the equipment trends that have happened over the years -- lighter bats, bigger gloves, tighter wrapped baseballs, etc.

It has now been established that the steroid era is over since using these types of drugs is damaging to the body and harms the game. Thus, I find it perfectly acceptable to see a players career tarnished with steroid use post-2004, however before 2004, I believe that steroid use was the product of the system and the great players, who made the late 90's so much fun to watch deserve enshrinement into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York.

The next time I walk through the NBHOF, I hope to be able to see Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds and remember all of the memories that I have of those players. How McGwire's 62nd home-run in 1998 was the first baseball game I ever watched in its entirety on television, feeling touched seeing two great competitors of different teams and nationalities in the midst of a pennant race hug one another. What an incredible showing of what sport should be. It was in that moment that I became a baseball fan. It was in that moment that baseball revived itself from the 1994 players strike. Major League Baseball owes a lot to its great athletes from the steroid era and it is time that designations are made in favor of the player because they were doing exactly what their predecessors did in switching to lighter bats -- they were looking for an advantage.

The Free Agent Market

2009-02-03T18:11:00.000-08:00

With pitchers and catchers reporting for duty in just under 9 days there are a ton of talented players still on the free agent market. More than any other year that I have seen in my time as a fan. This is an updated list of the top talent still available on the free agent market:

Paul Lo Duca, C
Moises Alou, OF
Lvian Hernandez, P
Braden Looper, P
Paul Byrd, P
Pedro Martinez, P
Mark Mulder, P
Odalis Perez, P
Eric Gagne, P
Will Ohman, P
Jason Isringhausen, P

Many of these players can certainly be classified as being either insurance policies or reclamation projects, yet in years past, they would have been snapped up quickly. There are former all-stars and there are potential future hall of fame players on that list (Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez). Is it be possible that a future hall of famer will have to beg for a job, sure, but three? I don't think so. This has been a crazy off season, and I think that teams have been very reluctant to spend their excess payroll dollars in a year where baseball is appearing to prepare itself for a tough year based on their pricing and the poor economy. Only teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs have been spending significantly and other teams have been making solid bargain moves or by making trades to improve.

I forecast that this is going to be a very unique season. Players appear poised to wait for teams to find holes that they need to fill whether that be because of injuries or lack of talent and teams do not appear willing to give these players their requested salaries because they are by in large not worth it. It may be May or June before some of these players sign to provide depth for the team. Today also provided one of the best bargains of the free agent season. Ty Wigginton to the Orioles for 2 years at 6M was a deal. He is a solid .270, 20, 70 guy and 3M is probably under value for a guy like that. I can't believe it, but good kudos to the Orioles for the second consecutive day!

One final point I wish to make about the free agent market. There is one superstar that would make an immediate and significant impact on any team, Manny Ramirez. This future hall of famer cannot get work because just one team has shown significant enough interest in him to offer a 2009 contract. I think Manny would make sense for a whole slew of teams, but his asking price appears to just be too high. As a result, all of these teams have and will continue to abstain from the bidding. Perhaps only Los Angeles and San Francisco have the interest in Ramirez and after two declined offers, Manny may have just alienated the Dodgers like the Red Sox apparently did to him (according to Ramirez). So what does this mean for Manny? Is the best hitter from the past decade, coming off of one of the best half-seasons in recent memory going to be jobless. The answer appears to be -- YES! For whatever reason, Ramirez declined both offers from the Dodgers, each reasonable and a good deal for each party. Now, because of his greed or desire for the right contract, Scott Boras may have finally lost. The economy appears to have created such a bubble that the elite players market in baseball has burst on Ramirez and Boras. I can only wonder what would have happened if Alex Rodriguez had stayed with Boras last season. Would it have been the same situation?

For the foreseeable future, I do not see any of these players with a Major League Baseball franchise unless either they are willing to accept a lower contract or a team gets desperate for talent. If you were to create two columns for each category, I'll bet that over the next several months each of these players will fall into one category or the other -- it will be fun to watch which side has more patience.

Rich Hill to the Orioles

2009-02-02T18:34:00.000-08:00

For the first time in many years, I get to say that the Baltimore Orioles made an excellent move. I would be very willing to say that the way that the Chicago Cubs treated Rich Hill in their 2008 season was probably as a result of their excellent pitching depth and the trade for Rich Harden and emergence of Ryan Dempster did not help either. Yet, I think it was a terrible move to demote a guy that was probably the second best pitcher on their staff and not give him a second chance to show his 2007 form, that was probably the second best pitcher on their staff (11-8; 3.92). He has a filthy curveball and is ready to get that second chance. What hurt him in 2008 was his control, walking 18 in 19.2 IP, and after allowing 63 walks in 195 IP the previous season, he will walk batters. Though, it is reasonable to expect that his control will improve.

I am very excited to see Hill in an Orioles uniform. Further, I expect him to pitch better than Rich Harden and Ryan Dempster in 2009 as I anticipate injuries to Harden and a fall back to average play for Dempster. Hill however has something to prove to his now old club and will have very little pressure in Baltimore. His challenge will be facing the dominant AL East teams. He has a great curveball in his arsenal and could be successful like Ted Lilly was with Toronto in 2007, using a very similar 12-6 curve against the same division.

I love this move, and I wish Rich Hill success in 2009 and perhaps the Orioles may crawl from the cellar with catching prospect Matt Weiters coming very soon.

Current Economic Issues in Baseball

2009-01-21T23:04:00.000-08:00

When I was in transit over the past couple of weeks, I had the opportunity to sit down and write up a response to some of the economic troubles that the common fan brings attention to with baseball. These opinions come on the heels of large December spending and increasingly expensive ticket prices. Common fans do not like to see these two combine and when they do, their pessimism is hard to respond to. In a time where the entire country has felt the recession to an extent, fans are more deterred than ever. Baseball is an escape from the negativity of the world and I don't expect that to change, though perhaps the way that fans access the game may drastically change.

The future of baseball and all of the entertainment industry moneymakers is successful use of media and new media. I have tried to give myself a glimpse into this by blogging and learning how online networks grow. The development of strong fan connections can be made through building a bridge from the team to the fans. Player participation in blogs such as Curt Schilling's "38 Pitches" became a huge hit in the Boston area and with other dedicated fans by giving them an opportunity to interact with the pitcher. Now front-office staff members blog, chat online with fans and make public appearance to help increase communication. This area is something that is going to explode once teams figure out a way to get players with star power to maintain communication with new media outlets. Minor League teams will also use new media, but in vastly different ways as the team itself, not the players, is what the fans identify with. By going out into communities with marketing street teams and perhaps blogging by team officials or members of the coaching staff, communities can become more familiar with their teams.

A current issue in baseball according to the average sports page reader is that salaries of players are soaring above acceptable rates. With players receiving average salaries over 3M and several free agents signing contracts this offseason that will pay the player in excess of 20M per season, I can see how people would deduce that there is a problem (I used to agree as well -- Until I read Marvin Miller). However, the teams and players have come very close to balancing the share of the revenue stream. At an average of 3M, the 750 MLB players earn 2.25B in total. It is estimated that the league earns around 5B in revenue now, so the league and the players are very close to splitting revenues evenly, which is the ideal situation for a fair league and players union. Where fans are right is that teams continue to attack the average consumer's wallet with pricing. In 2009, I would have to imagine that teams will show their rates of ticket inflation because of current economic conditions. Teams not in Boston, New York, Chicago or Los Angeles will probably see a decline in gate attendance, season ticket holders and corporate accounts. Smart teams should consider price changes now to favor consumers and businesses who may not be able to afford multi-million dollar suites in 2009. This is certainly a current issue that will have to be solved through pro-active pricing schemes. Minor league baseball may reap the benefits of this situation in the MLB with more people choosing to go to the cheaper game closer to home.

A former issue that appears to be getting solved is that of competitive balance. Even though the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals have put together one winning season combined since the 1994 strike, there have been plenty of examples of small market teams finding success in spite of big spending teams. Credit the Brewers, Rays and Twins for being playoff caliber franchises in 2008, when the Mets, Yankees and Braves were not. Baseball is now run by executives that are constantly under close surveillance with success being measured almost exclusively by the wins and losses from year to year. It takes a strong mind and desire for success to win now and the Rays, Brewers and Twins used innovation in their resources better than the Mets, Yankees and Braves in 2008. Truly, winners are determine by two things in the modern era of baseball: (1) bankroll; and (2) capacity of the organizations leadership. When the "Blue Ribbon Panel" discussed competitive balance in preparation for the 2002 Basic Agreement, bankroll determine winners in post-strike baseball. Between 1995 and 2001 the New York Yankees played in the World Series five of the seven series, winning four of them. Parity was at an all time low. By creating tax thresholds and a substantive revenue sharing system in the 2002 Basic Agreement, the MLB gave some spending power back to small-market teams. At the 2006 update to the agreement, the tax thresholds were increased and the revenue sharing percentages dropped 3%. In my mind, this hits small market franchises hard, as teams like the Yankees stand to benefit as much as 20M from the 2002 agreement and the 2006, while the Pirates or Royals lose out on 5-7M. By general observation, this allows the Yankees to sign Mark Teixeira and it keeps the Royals from signing a useful bat to help their anemic power from 2008. The true spirit of the game is to have winners based on the ability of management and in order to keep that, the MLB must not lower revenue sharing percents again.

Overall, baseball is in great position now that they have passed the steroid-era. Looking ahead to a future far less clouded than other professional sports is another big plus (NFL -- Player's Rights; NBA -- Globalization of the game, players leaving to play in foreign markets; NHL -- Re-Establishing a fan base and solving collective balance problems) for baseball. I have extremely high hopes that 2009 will bring cost conscious clubs continued success and that consumers still can to come out to the old ballgame.

Getting a Job in Baseball

2009-01-19T16:10:00.000-08:00

I figure that it is time to write an update with respect to my professional development as this blog is intended to shine some light as to how young professionals can get into Major League Baseball using my anecdotal stories as an example.

The Waiting Game

I recently went on a two week vacation to Egypt and the Dominican Republic. When I left, I had no job offers, few leads and no reason to feel hopeful that anything was coming. Yet I still had the feeling that when I checked my phone each night for messages that I would have good news. Before going to sleep in a timezone that was 7 hours ahead of the east coast, I would turn my cellphone on for five minutes to try and catch a signal to see if I had voice messages. The nerves making my stomach turn over each day that I either did not receive a message or there was no signal for the phone to pick up as we sailed along the Nile. After returning to Cairo, where cellphones work with ease, the message finally came through to me on January 7th that the Atlanta Braves wanted to speak with me about their position as their marketing trainee. I quietly celebrated, thinking that this was going to be it. This was one of the positions that I held in high regard after working with the Braves during the summer of 2008 and also considering the great interviews and conversations that I had with Braves personnel. While walking through the great Giza Pyramids, one of the wonders of the world, my insides were in knots (not only because of Egyptian food) yearning for home so I could get in touch with the Braves. Even on the plane ride, I could not let my mind rest to allow me to sleep. Each thought ended at the gates of beautiful Turner Field. When I finally arrived back in the United States, it wasn't 5 minutes after getting through U.S. Customs that I called Hill Scott, the director of marketing for the Braves. The phone rang, each sonorous tone a dagger to my insides, eventually rolling to voicemail. I suppose, what was another 12 hours after having already waited 48 to make the phone call, though at the time I felt that it was an eternity.

The Phone Call Finally Arrived

The next day, January 10th, I received a phone call at around quarter after one from a private number. It was the Braves! While driving on the Merit Parkway in Milton, Connecticut, Mr. Scott was ready to offer me the marketing trainee position. I just about ran the car off the road in joy and immediately celebrated by calling my parents to share the news. By 5:00PM that night, I was an Atlanta Brave Trainee.

The Next Chapter

This means that I now will have work in baseball for 10-11 months, spanning from the present until November at some point. There will be no guarantees' after that time, just a year of experiences and learning the business of baseball from one of the great organizations in baseball. It is not exactly what you would like to receive from a $160,000 education, but it is what it takes to work in baseball. For all of those who are reading this looking for sage advice about getting into baseball, you need to be very resilient. It takes a passion for the sport and courage to follow the dream to work in sport to make the low pay and poor living conditions worth while. I plan to make Turner Field my second home in 2009, which is what makes everything worth it. I am ready to dedicate hours and all of my energy to the 2009 Atlanta Braves marketing department and hopefully that will pay off in a full time position at some point in the future with the Braves or another organization. Thanks to the support of my family, I will be able to do this. Without them, there would be no way that I would have been able to make this work. This week, I embark on a new chapter of my life and I can't wait to write each page. The goal to make it to Baseball Operations is still there, it just appears as though it will take longer to achieve than anticipated. Being in a front office to a Major League Baseball team is close enough for now.

Closing

Thank you to all of those who are reading this. Your support and friendship is a large reason as to what has pushed me to reach for the stars.

Penny and Bard to Boston

2008-12-29T14:02:00.000-08:00

So the Red Sox response to the New York spending binge has finally come out in the way of two great investments. Brad Penny and Josh Bard are two players that have showed themselves as being far better than their 2008 performances and the Red Sox did a nice job in picking up this duo for cheap. While Penny has only pitched in the National League, he will benefit from working with "stuff" pitchers in Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Pitching coach John Farrell has done an excellent job transforming Josh Beckett into an American League starter and I imagine that Penny will receive similar instruction. This is also going to be a rotation of 95+ MPH hurlers with Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester and now Penny all being able to light up the gun.

Interestingly enough, Josh Bard is back in Boston after being passed over for Doug Mirabelli because of his inability to catch Tim Wakefield's knuckleball. A season in which Bard hit .338, 9, 40 after the trade to San Diego. This signals to me that the Red Sox may be moving past Jason Varitek or certainly will provide him with less playing time because Bard would probably not be catching Wakefield after the debacle in 2006. If Bard and Varitek do indeed make the Opening Day roster, I would imagine that the Red Sox would also be carrying a third catcher to specifically catch Tim Wakefield. Personally, I would think that this signals the end of Jason Varitek's time in a Boston uniform because three catchers will not work for an AL team. Perhaps Javier Valentin or Gregg Zaun would make a good platoon catcher with Bard.

Happy Holidays to Fans in the Bronx

2008-12-23T16:08:00.000-08:00

I have been rather quiet lately about the offseason, but with the Mark Teixeira signing today in New York, I think it is time for me to pipe up.

During the month of December, the New York Yankees and Brian Cashman have agressively been pushing their free agent dollars towards signing the top talent to fill the voids from their 2008 team. I have to admit that I am now very impressed that they have Teixeira. Starting over the summer, I saw the Yankees and also the Mets being big players for the slugger and when the Mets decided to stick with Carlos Delgado after a hot second half, the Yankees were the logical destination for Teixeira. When I heard that the Yankees were not all that interested in him up until today, I have been very critical of their signings of Sabathia and Burnett as it was their offense that really needed that extra bat to push it into a playoff picture again. They get that with Teixeira. The possibility for Manny Ramirez is probably closed now as well, which also makes sense for a franchise with 5 solid major league outfielders on its current 40-man roster.

Teixeira receives top-5 money with this deal, though I will argue that he will never be a top-5 player. Teixeira is a fantastic #3 hitter and his ability to get on base and get into scoring position will absolutely give Alex Rodriguez some incredible RBI opportunities. I love that 3-4 combo, it may be the best that Major League Baseball has to offer in the present, with respect to Braun/Fielder.

With the rest of the month, I expect that the Yankees are still not done. They should be looking for another starting pitcher and potentially be shopping around for a reliever and some assistance on the bench. Now that Teixeira has signed, the true market will determine itself and the bargains should start showing up. The market for Manny Ramirez should be back down to just the Dodgers, as the Angels and Yankees seem to be out. I expect the Mets to make a late run. If the Braves could put the personality aside, he makes a ton of sense in Atlanta. I expect January headlines to belong to the Braves, much like the December headlines went to the Yankees.

The Winter Meetings: Day Five

2008-12-11T07:56:00.000-08:00

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008
The final day finally arrived. With little sleep, lots of junk food and beer in my system from the social networking portion of the Winter Meetings, it was time to wrap this experience up. On this day, I had a couple more interviews with the Connecticut Defenders as well as my rescheduled second interview with the Portland Beavers. Each of which went very well. Neither position has much appeal to me, but the practice of interviewing is always important to job seekers.

With the remainder of the day at the meetings, I spent my time with the friends that I had made during my time in Las Vegas. By putting so many people under the same roof with similar career desires and motivations, it was easy to make connections and friendships. I really enjoyed my time at the Winter Meetings in 2008 and the people I met and lessons I learned. Patience is going to pay off with this field and being able to make your own luck will go a long way for success. It was very appropriate to have a job fair in Las Vegas that taught these ideals. I will do my best to adapt and adhere to these general rules after this experience and hopefully a job opportunity will present itself in the coming days.

What a ride!

The Winter Meetings: Day Four

2008-12-11T07:50:00.000-08:00

Tuesday, December 9th, 2008
Just as with Monday, the fourth day of the Winter Meetings provided me with some further insight about how to get into the business of baseball. Tuesday was the big day for job candidates as the interviews were running seemingly from 9:00 AM through the cocktail hour. On this day, I had five meetings scheduled in two different hotels and during four different times meaning that I had a double booking between the Pittsburgh Pirates Video Scouting internship as well as a second interview with the Portland Beavers for their Inside Sales Representative position. In addition to those two positions, I also met with the Chicago Cubs baseball operations department, interviewed with the New Britain Rock Cats and Savannah Sand Gnats. It was an incredibly hectic day that required me to go from the Las Vegas Hilton, where the job fair and many interviews were occurring, to the Bellagio, where the major league teams were operating their sessions for the Winter Meetings and then back and forth once more.

Starting with the Chicago Cubs baseball operations department, the day was off to a great beginning despite the circumstances. I had been in conversation throughout the past week or two with Dave Littlefield, scout to the Chicago Cubs. Mr. Littlefield was kind enough to invite me to this meeting of three Cubs baseball operations employees and about a dozen job seekers. Being one of the youngest people in the room, it was a very exciting moment to hear advice from professionals who have succeeded in the field. Some of the highlights of what Cubs management had to say was that those trying to enter into baseball operations need to realize that the position is not going to come immediately and it may take advantage of many internships and networking opportunities to be able to finally find the right opportunity in the field. The silver lining to what sounds like an insurmountable fiscal challenge was that after enough work and being around the sport, a position will eventually present itself. I absolutely believed these men as none had found their way to their respective positions with the Cubs in a conventional fashion. One was formerly in media relations, not getting his first shot at baseball operations until the age of 39, another a coach and minor league player that worked their way through several organizations to get into baseball operations, and the final a athletic trainer that played college baseball and is currently in the video scouting part to the game. None of these routes follow the paths of wunderkinds like Jon Daniels or Theo Epstein, who were given amazing opportunities right after college and groomed to their current positions as general managers.

Another very important lesson that I gained from this meeting was that being able to take initiative with baseball operations tasks such as scouting in a “bird-dog” type position would be important to those who want to try scout work. Bird-dog’s are unaffiliated amateur and professional talent evaluators that provide feedback to major league scouts when they need assistance seeing other areas of the country. This may be something to consider for a future in scouting. One final tip that I felt was important to note was that greater levels of education were important for making job seekers more attractive to a baseball operations department. Being able to speak another applicable language such as Spanish or Japanese or gaining advanced degrees in the form of a J.D. or MBA would be an excellent way to educate you further for a potential job in baseball. I know that I will seek to do both of these in the coming years.

I have to make a final note that I really appreciate what the Chicago Cubs did that morning with young job seekers, by communicating practical advice. It is also important for me to note that Dave Littlefield is one of the few people in baseball that will take the time to respond to phone-calls and communicate not only with job seekers, but with other general managers around the league. It was quite obvious to me that he has done an excellent job of networking as he exchanged greetings with many current general managers in the few minutes we spoke together. This was an incredible experience and I really have him to thank for this new sense of enlightenment.

After the Cubs meeting ended, I had to take a taxi cab back to the Las Vegas Hilton to make my meeting with the New Britain Rock Cats. This was an excellent interview and I really was impressed with what the team was presenting to me. For just about all of the interviews I had during the week, this was the only one that took the correct approach of both parties selling themselves to the other. The Rock Cats did an excellent job of selling their front office mindset as being a fun and competitive place that was highly results oriented. With a team of three interviewers, I got the sense that the Rock Cats organization was a tight-knit group of friends that worked together and received excellent results as a result. Not to mention, one of the interviewers was an Ithaca College alumna. While the position was not the baseball operations spot I have been looking for, I enjoyed the opportunity to speak with and maybe learn from the Rock Cats.

Of course, the next stop on the journey of interviews this day was to go back across town to the Bellagio again to interview with the Pittsburgh Pirates for their baseball operations video scout internship. This was the big interview that I was able to prepare for well in advance. I brought examples of scouting work that I had done previously and really bared my soul to the team that I was ready to learn and improve myself while working with their franchise. In what became nearly an hour-long interview, the Pirates gave me a glimpse at what working in baseball operations would be like and I have to say that it got me incredibly excited. I watched 30 pitches from as many different major league pitchers and commented as to what the pitches were. Then I took a look at a specific delivery and diagnosed the pitch and for what reason it was that type of pitch. Yes – I can see myself doing this type of thing and being very happy doing it. Overall, I like to think that this was an excellent interview for both parties, and I hope that something materializes with the Pirates as this would be my big break.

With the high of the Pirates interview, I had to get another cab to go back to the Hilton to get to a meeting with the Savannah Sand Gnats for their media relations director position. I met with their new ownership and was immediately impressed with what their organization was attempting to do. The Sand Gnats, under new ownership are looking to restructure their front office and I absolutely bought into what they were trying to do. We shared stories about their experience in law and my experiences and abilities with MS Office and being able to be creative with this position that they were interviewing me for. Perhaps this would not be the best fit, but I am very confident that the Sand Gnats are well on their way to becoming a successful minor league franchise with these owners at the helm.

So you all should realize that Tuesday of the Winter Meetings is crazy. Things could have been much better however if Major League Baseball wasn’t pent up in the Bellagio and PBEO was in the Hilton. Two different venues on two different ends of town ended up to be an unbelievable hassle to job seekers. Other than that however, it was an incredible day that taught me precious secrets and also hopefully saw an opportunity open up.

The Winter Meetings: Day Three

2008-12-09T02:13:00.000-08:00

Monday, December 8th, 2008
Monday was a wonderful change in what seems to be a rollercoaster of a job fair. Monday marked the beginning of the interviews for positions to which I had four interviews with the following positions:

Intern, Las Vegas 51’s
Marketing Trainee, Atlanta Braves
Inside Sales Representative, San Francisco Giants
Inside Sales Representative, Portland Beavers

The confusion that surrounded the day did allow for these four jobs to be possible to interview for. Based on my experience in marketing/sales, I was very pleased to see these types of results with the first day. It was really a wonderful feeling to interview with four of the jobs that I applied for the day before, with several more to come in the future days while in Las Vegas. The second day is supposed to be the big day for interviews and I will look forward to seeing how round two turns out as day one provided a ton of excitement as well as confusion. One of the most confusing parts to the first day of interviews was that the teams decided to select the times for the interviews which led to two overlaps of interviews that did eventually work themselves out, while creating plenty of anxiety. This day also saw new jobs and opportunities present themselves that I did apply for in the following positions:

Minnesota Twins Internships
Los Angeles Dodgers Minor League Video and Baseball Operations Internship
New Britain Rock Cats Ticket/Operations Intern
Salem Red Sox Baseball Operations Internship
San Antonio Missions Director of Public Relations
Augusta Green Jackets Corporate Sales Manager
Amberdeen Ironbirds Corporate Sales Manager
Savannah Sand Gnats Public/Media Relations Intern
Connecticut Defenders Group Sales Internship
Memphis Redbirds Communications Internship
Detroit/Lakeland Tigers Media Relations Coordinator

By broadening my horizons to these new positions, I hope to be able to receive further interview possibilities after a first day. Tuesday promises to be a busy day of shuffling back and forth between the Bellagio, where the MLB winter meetings are being held and the Las Vegas Hilton, where the PBEO (pbeo.com) job fair is occurring. Tomorrow brings a promise to be a fantastic day with second interviews, new interviews with many new teams and hopefully a fantastic opportunity in baseball operations at some point. With interviews with the Pirates, a career conference with the Cubs and hopefully some surprises, Tuesday will be the highlight of the trip.

One thing that I did determine today was that the entry level positions for baseball are a stepping stone for a future career. No matter what job any job seekers accept, baseball is ready to continue its growth. From what I have gathered to this point, the Baseball Winter Meetings will hopefully provide the first of many steps towards a career in the sport for many.

The Winter Meetings: Day Two

2008-12-08T00:56:00.001-08:00

Sunday, December 7th, 2008
So the honeymoon is over for me today after a day of reality checks and disappointment. For nine hours today, myself and somewhere in the area of five-hundred other job seekers spent time listening to some of the greatest minds in Minor League Baseball talk about the barriers of entry to the business of baseball. What was so disappointing to me was that many of the people talking this afternoon were explaining the barriers to entry to the sport, which I suppose might have helped some people, but I am in Las Vegas because I am trying my hardest to break into a sport that is incredibly difficult to enter – I assumed the risk before I came here and there is not a whole lot that can deter me from my mission. I imagine that most of the other people here this week are also in the same position. At one point, I decided to ask one of the high ranking officials in Minor League Baseball to give the audience a sales pitch as to why we should want to work in Minor League Baseball because at that point, no one had mentioned it. The response that was given was an excellent one – that despite the lack of compensation, the entry level positions are an opportunity to show ourselves to baseball and grow into the executive positions. Even though the majority of the PBEO Business of Baseball Workshop was spent talking about the gruesome details of entry into the sport, this was a silver lining to that event.

The next stage of the evening was the first night with the PBEO job fair, where I waited patiently to look at over 280 job postings with the other five-hundred people. This process proved to be a little disturbing as the job postings included between 15-20 jobs or internships in Major League Baseball. The remaining jobs that were posted were in the minors. With my experience in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, I chose to apply to the major league teams this evening, though I will look much closer at the minor league positions tomorrow. The following are the jobs that I have applied for as of this evening:

Video Scouting Intern, Baseball Info Solutions (Coplay, PA)
Extended Catch Program, Pittsburgh Pirates
Intern, Texas League
Intern, Houston Astros
Video Scouting Assistant, Detroit Tigers
Marketing Trainee, Atlanta Braves
Inside Sales Representative, San Francisco Giants
Clubhouse Assistant, Binghamton Mets
Clubhouse Assistant, Sarasota Reds
Corporate Partnerships Account Executive, Pittsburgh Pirates
Inside Sales Representative, Texas Rangers
Inside Sales Representative, Florida Marlins
Inside Sales Representative, Portland Beavers
Inside Sales Representative, Pittsburgh Pirates
Media Relations Intern, Houston Astros
Intern, Las Vegas 51’s

The most disappointing part to the day however besides the lack of available positions in Major League Baseball was that I learned that the major league and minor league versions of the Baseball Winter Meetings are occurring in different locations. Major League Baseball is being pent up in the Bellagio – perhaps the most beautiful hotel I have ever seen – while the minor league version of the meetings is happening in the Hilton. The distance between the two hotels is 2.5 miles, which will make for an uncomfortable and long day tomorrow and the next, but if I have to be at the Bellagio to get noticed, that is exactly what will happen.

Here’s to hoping that Monday will deal job seekers a new hand.

The Winter Meetings: Day One

2008-12-07T23:57:00.001-08:00

Saturday, December 6th, 2008
As the sun rose to show itself through the frigid central New York air, I was perched up in the sky looking out onto a new day. It could not have been more appropriate as I finish my career at Ithaca College and am embarking on my journey to find a job at the Baseball Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The trip itself was quite the journey – waking up at 5:00 AM to catch my flight from Ithaca to Newark, and then picking up three hours from Newark to Las Vegas. Baseball never ceases to amaze me with its ability to bring complete strangers together. On the flight from Newark to Las Vegas, I pulled out the Baseball America 2008 handbook to take a quick look and the guy sitting next to me immediately started to talk me up about the Baseball Winter Meetings and I found a person that was in the exact situation that I am in, looking for a job. If that wasn’t enough of a coincidence, when we stood up to get off the plane, my new acquaintance recognized that the person sitting in front of us was a long-time Yankee writer. Yes, I was immediately convinced that coming to the Winter Meetings was the right move for me.

While looking out at the millions of flashing bulbs from my 7th floor room, I have been thinking about what other amazing things are in store with the coming days at the 2008 meetings. What I do know is that all of the hard work and the planning to get to where I am is an incredibly rewarding feeling – only to be matched by getting the job that I have been working towards over the past half-decade.

Mid-Market Economic Impact Thoughts

2008-11-27T00:32:00.001-08:00

The following is something that was posted on Padres front-office staffer, Paul DePodesta's blog: http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/

Paul,

Thank you for this bit of information, this may be the most insight into a baseball operations plan that I have ever read. I'm actually kind of shocked that there are only 23 comments.

My comment is going to bring us to current issues in collective bargaining. With the San Diego Padres operating income reaching $167 million at the conclusion to the 2007 season (Forbes), it puts the Padres 18th overall in total team revenue, 16 million below the league average (c. 183M). I have seen signs of concern for mid-market teams in the form that you point out in this discussion. The Padres have enough resources to field competitive teams and also develop top prospects; however it requires specific micro-management of talent, not to mention some surprises in player development. The team endured a tough 2008 season at the major league level because these efforts were spread too thin.

I worry that the 2001 and 2006 Basic Agreement's have changed the economic landscape of the game so drastically for large market and small market teams and their business plans so that medium market teams may be the most negatively affected by the new spending trends. For those who do not know, the 2001 agreement created meaningful luxury taxation on payroll dollars spent above a particular tax threshold of 49% on each additional dollar spent on player contracts. It also increased revenue sharing from a previous 20% to 34%, which meant that 34% of all local revenues from each team were put into a fund with the Office of the Commissioner and re-distributed back to teams evenly. This effectively gave a significant amount of money back to the small market teams to be able to compete in the increasingly polarized baseball economic climate, but had little effect on mid-market franchises. The small market teams of Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Florida most notably have used these funds to re-invest into their minor league systems and have seen the fourth stage of this plan realized in the production of championship caliber players. Large market teams have also begun to adapt to the economic system distributing their wealth to major league talent and also developing minor league assets.

A significant problem that happened with the 2006 Basic Agreement is that the tax threshold will be increased significantly throughout the term of the agreement (through 2011) from around 135 million to over 170 million by 2011. Also, the percentage of revenue shared was dropped from 34% to 31%. This means that large market teams have the ability to spend greater amounts of money before being hit with a luxury tax and also the amount of money distributed to each team decreased by 3%. In 2007, this 3% drop in revenue sharing meant nearly $500,000 was lost for the Padres under the 31%. Sure, in a game that is about to see at least two players sign contracts in excess to $20 million per season, $500K isn’t much. However, it can go a long way to develop talent if you take a look at the facilities that teams have built in Latin America and the Caribbean Islands.

The problem that I forecast for mid-market teams is that their revenue sharing dollars really do not change that much and they are forced to effectively spread themselves thin in order to succeed. Small market and large market teams have been able to use their resources and develop successful business models through player development exclusively at the small market level or spending money and some player development at the large market level. The Padres and other mid-market teams will have the luxury to sign a few big contracts or retain a championship caliber player or two, but they also have to focus heavily on developing minor league talent with a large portion of their budget in order to be successful. Is this some of the sentiment that the Padres feel while being spread too thin?

While an unpopular statement, when word was spread that the Padres were considering a payroll of $40 million in 2009, it makes so much business sense. With a team comprised of level three developing talent, the Padres will enjoy significantly higher amounts of money to re-invest in their organization for future seasons to the tune of somewhere in the 30 million dollar amount. I believe that the Padres have done this before after Tony Gwynn retired they let the payroll decrease for 2002 and 2003, and then in 2004, they had the money and prospects to pay David Wells and also trade for Brian Giles. This business strategy resulted in two NL West Championships and one season that required 163 games to be played before a winner was determined from the NL West. I do fear however, that success for mid-market teams is going to follow in this load and re-load pattern now until new economic policy is developed in Major League Baseball.

Anyone’s thoughts?

Regards,

Dan Fisher
http://baseballecon.blogspot.com/

Coco Crisp (BOS) for Ramon Ramirez (KC)

2008-11-19T22:21:00.000-08:00

Again, this is another example of Dayton Moore and the Kansas City Royals making aggressive moves to improve some of the weaknesses from the 2008 version of the club. Already this offseason, the Royals have moved two successful relievers from their bullpen to acquire useful parts. With this move, the Royals have picked up a ton of defensive range in the outfield because now the Royals can move David DeJesus back into left-field, where he is best suited and enjoy watching Crisp run down and make some incredible plays in a spacious Kauffman Stadium.

Crisp's time in Boston was forgettable, as he saw his offensive numbers decline from his days in Cleveland and eventually lost the starting job to Jacoby Ellsbury. Now in Kansas City, he will be granted one more chance at becoming a leadoff-type hitter and the Royals should be well rewarded with having a player who has something to prove. While I reference Crisp as being a leadoff-type it is because he does not have a lot of power and does have speed. His .331 career on base percentage does leave him a lot of room to improve with respect to patience. At 29 years old, that is probably not going to happen, but he will probably be the best option for Trey Hillman at this point. I do have some level of expectations that 2009 could be a surprising season for Crisp as he will be in a situation without nearly as much pressure and he can play his game again.

What this does to the Royals now is it makes Mark Teahen or Jose Guillen expendable. If Moore is able to make a trade to move one of those outfielders to acquire some bullpen help, where they are now weak after this and the Mike Jacobs trade we are looking at a 75-87 team that has successfully added power, defensive range and speed without really losing a whole lot. If they add another starter, this team really is starting to look competitive in a weak AL Central. Here is what the starting 9 and rotation currently project after the trade today:

Joe Buck / Miguel Olivo, C
Mike Jacobs, 1B
Alberto Castillo, 2B
Alex Gordon, 3B
Mike Aviles, SS
David DeJesus, LF
Coco Crisp, CF
Jose Guillen, RF* (or Mark Teahen)
Billy Butler, DH

Not to mention two fringe prospects (Kila Ka'aihue, Mitch Maier) and several other useful spare parts (Tony Pena Jr. - Defense; Ryan Shealy - Pinch Hitter (Power); Ross Gload - Pinch Hitter; Joey Gathright - Speed) available to provide the Royals with a fairly impressive bench.

Gil Meche, RH
Zach Greinke, RH
Luke Hochevar, RH
Brian Bannister, RH
Kyle Davies, RH

Righties aplenty, but with Meche and Greinke looking like a formidable 1-2 punch and three other promising younger pitchers, the Royals would benefit from adding a solid veteran to put some pressure on Hochevar, Bannister or Davies to take one of the last two spots in the rotation. Oliver Perez makes sense if the price is reasonable. Paul Byrd could provide some veteran leadership for one season as a lower tiered option.

I will continue to say it...watch this team in 2009. Their major weakness that I see right now is a projected low team on-base percentage, who knows what Moore will have up his sleeve next to solve that issue. Perhaps a catcher that can work a walk? Gregg Zaun? Keep an eye on the Royals.

Mike Mussina

2008-11-19T22:03:00.000-08:00

Growing up a Red Sox fan, it would be easy to say good riddance when Mike Mussina retired earlier today because of the amount of respect he earned beating up on the Red Sox as a pitcher for the Orioles and Yankees for the better part of the last two decades. I have nothing but respect for a guy like Mussina, who likely solidified his place in Cooperstown this season, ending his career on the highest of high's, a 20-win season and a Gold Glove. While watching other aging great pitchers such as Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez may have careers that have provided baseball with more scintillating moments in one season than Mussina did in his entire career, yet they did not know when to walk away. Mussina's retirement from baseball after having arguably the best season of his career is so impressive and something that other greats will not be able to claim as their decision to keep pitching when their instincts kept them going as their bodies deteriorated made for some forgettable moments.

I have to admit that I have immediately gone to EBay to find a Mike Mussina t-shirt because when someone mentions the best pitchers of my time as a fan, Mike Mussina has risen to the top as a player with class that crossed the finish line with greater dignity than the likes of Maddux, Mussina, Johnson, Glavine, Schilling, Smoltz and Martinez.

Congratulations on a fantastic career to Mike Mussina.

Jeremy Affeldt to San Francisco

2008-11-18T09:16:00.000-08:00

While the rumors swirl about how much the Yankees offered to CC Sabathia, the Giants came away with a very good deal yesterday. They locked up a left-handed reliever for two years at 8M. Better yet, he has had an ERA in the mid to low 3's the last two seasons pitching in Colorado and Cincinnati -- two of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the MLB. In past offseasons, Affeldt may have been looking at 3 years and 15M, but this does set a small standard that because of the economy, teams are hopefully not going to overpay on mid range talent. This contract will affect the totals given to other relievers like Joe Beimel, Kyle Farnsworth or Bob Howry.

Matt Holliday to the A's

2008-11-11T11:23:00.000-08:00

As a baseball fan, you have to admire what the Oakland A's have been able to do in the last decade. They have loaded up on talent, and then reloaded, and now appear to be reloading once again to be a contender. In acquiring Matt Holliday, the A's pick up one of the games best pure hitters, in the final season of his arbitration years. This may be a risky move, but as many will point out, the A's will be well compensated with Holliday's offensive production for at least one season and if they were to lose him, he would give the A's two compensation draft picks. With plenty of money to spend this offseason, I doubt that the A's stop here as they look to build that team back to strike fear into the American League once again. With no real outstanding player in their lineup last season, the A's have been talking about bringing back Jason Giambi, though adding another contact heavy hitter would be the most beneficial to a team that hit just .242 in 2008. I argue that players like Bobby Abreu or Rafael Furcal would make a lot of sense for the A's as opposed to a low contact power guy in Jason Giambi. With Abreu and Furcal, the lineup would project to look something like this:

Ryan Sweeney, CF
Rafael Furcal, SS
Matt Holliday, LF
Jack Cust, DH
Bobby Abreu, RF
Eric Chavez, 3B
Kurt Suzuki, C
Daric Barton, 1B
Mark Ellis, 2B

While the order does tail off after Abreu, the first five hitters are going to get on base and drive each other in. With the expected development of Suzuki and Barton, the bottom of the order could be looking a lot different by mid-July as well. Abreu is the type of hitter that Beane has liked for so long -- he gets on base and will do a little bit of everything for Bob Geren and potentially get some reps at first-base if Barton or Travis Buck emerge as the talented hitters their 2007 seasons indicated. Furcal makes sense because he also can get on base and create some offense with his speed on the bases and more importantly, it gets Bobby Crosby's bat out of the lineup. Either way, the A's have already become the most intriguing team of the offseason after the big move to acquire Matt Holliday. With their talented young pitching, the addition of a couple veteran bats and potentially a back end of the bullpen reliever, the A's already project to be a contender in 2009.

Offseason Spending

2008-11-07T15:38:00.000-08:00

With the season ending just over one week ago, Major League Baseball has already made some big announcement regarding its future with incoming President, Barack Obama's taxation plans. The taxation plan will tax higher incomes at an additional 4.5%, which makes a big difference on the millions of dollars that will be negotiated during the offseason on premiere players such as Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia and Mark Texiera to name a few of the best available. Agents are already discussing the value of receiving signing bonuses at the beginning of the contract to beat out the 2009 tax plan. A move that could save a player anywhere from a couple thousand dollars to a couple hundred thousand. In addition to the projected tax increases effect, MLB commissioner Bud Selig warned General Managers this past week at the GM Meeting to be mindful of the state of the economy. It seems as though there are going to be some competing ideas about what is going to be spent this offseason.

Available Players by Position:
C: Rod Barajas, TOR; Henry Blanco, CHC; Johnny Estrada, WAS; option-Toby Hall, CHW; Adam Melhuse, TEX; option-Mike Redmond, MIN; Ivan Rodriguez, NYY; David Ross, BOS; Javier Valentin, CIN; Jason Varitek, BOS; Vance Wilson, DET; option-Gregg Zaun, TOR.

1B: Rich Aurillia, SF; Ben Broussard, NYY; Nomar Garciaparra, LAD; Jason Giambi, NYY; Wes Helms, PHI; Kevin Millar, BAL; Richie Sexson, NYY; Mark Teixeira, LAA; Frank Thomas, OAK; Daryle Ward, CHC

2B: Ray Durham, MIL; Marcus Giles, COL; Mark Grudzielanek, KC; Orlando Hudson, ARI; Jeff Kent, LAD; Felipe Lopez, STL; D'Angelo Jimenez, STL; Pablo Ozuma, LAD; Nick Punto, MIN; Jose Valentin, NYM; Jose Vidro, SEA.

3B: Casey Blake, LAD; option-Hank Blalock, TEX; Joe Crede, CWS; Morgan Ensberg, NYY; Greg Norton, ATL.

SS: Orlando Cabrera, CWS; Alex Cintron, BAL; Alex Cora, BOS; Craig Counsell, MIL; Adam Everett, MIN; Rafael Furcal, LAD; Cesar Izturis, STL; Ramon Martinez, LAD; Edgar Renteria, DET; Juan Uribe, CWS.

OF: Bobby Abreu, NYY; Moises Alou, NYM; option-Garrett Anderson, LAA; Rocco Baldelli, TB; Willie Bloomquist, SEA; Emil Brown, OAK; Pat Burrell, PHI; Endy Chavez, NYM; Adam Dunn, ARI; Jim Edmonds, CHC; Cliff Floyd, TB; option-Brian Giles, SD; Ken Griffey Jr., CHW; Raul Ibanez, SEA; Jaque Jones, FLA; Mark Kotsay, BOS; Rob Mackowiak, WAS; Kevin Mench, TOR; option-Jason Michaels, CLE; Craig Monroe, MIN; Jay Payton, BAL; Scott Podsednik, COL; Manny Ramirez, LAD; Juan Rivera, LAA: Rondell White, MIN.

SP: Kris Benson, PHI; A.J. Burnett, TOR; Paul Byrd, BOS; Ryan Dempster, CHC; Jon Garland, LAA; Tom Glavine, ATL; Mike Hampton, ATL; Orlando Hernandez, NYM; Jason Jennings, TEX; Randy Johnson, ARI; Esteban Loaiza, CHW; Braden Looper, STL; Derek Lowe, LAD; Pedro Martinez, NYM; Mike Mussina, NYY; Jamie Moyer, PHI; Mark Mulder, STL; Carl Pavano, NYY; Brad Penny, LAD; Odalis Perez, WAS; Oliver Perez, NYM; Andy Pettitte, NYY; Mark Prior, SD; Horacio Ramirez, CHW; C.C. Sabathia, MIL; Ben Sheets, MIL; option-John Smoltz, ATL; Julian Tavarez, ATL; Steve Trachsel, BAL; Brett Tomko, SD; Claudio Vargas, MIL; Randy Wolf, HOU.

RP: Jeremy Affeldt, CIN; Tony Armas Jr., PIT; Luis Ayala, WAS; Joe Beimel, LAD; Joe Borowski, CLE; Juan Cruz, ARI; Alan Embree, OAK; Scott Eyre, CHC; Kyle Farnsworth, DET; Casey Fossum, DET; Aaron Fultz, CLE; option-Tom Gordon, PHI; LaTroy Hawkins, HOU; Mark Hendrickson, LAD; Bobby Howry, CHC; Steve Kline, SF; Damaso Marte, NYY; Tom Martin, COL; Julio Mateo, PHI; Guillermo Mota, MIL; Will Ohman, CHC; Darren Oliver, LAA; John Parrish, SEA; Chris Reitsma, SEA; Dennys Reyes, MIN; Juan Rincon, CLE; Brian Shouse, MIL; Rafael Soriano, ATL; Jorge Sosa, NYM; Mike Stanton, CIN; Derrick Turnbow, MIL; Oscar Villarreal, ATL; David Weathers, CIN; Dave Williams, NYM; Matt Wise, NYM.

CP: Brian Fuentes, COL; Trevor Hoffman, SD; Jason Isringhausen, STL; Brandon Lyon, ARI; Francisco Rodriguez, LAA; option-Salomon Torres, MIL; Kerry Wood, CHC.
Note: Italics indicate players that I project to receive a minimum of $10M/per year.

As you will notice there are a lot of big names and big contracts that are coming from this group of free agents, perhaps the greatest class of talent since 2000 when Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Mike Hampton, Mike Mussina and Darren Dreifort received noteworthy contracts, some that turned out well (Despite "Manny being Manny," Ramirez has been part of one of the most feared 3-4 combinations in the history of baseball and has won two World Series rings as a result, Mussina and Rodriguez have posted excellent numbers and raked in serious dollars) and others that have gone down as some of the worst in the history of baseball (Mike Hampton's time in Colorado was more than forgettable and the last two years of his contract that earned him near $35M, earned the Braves about 15 starts and Darren Dreifort, who started 26 games and appeared in 60 as a reliever during the remainder of his 5-year, $55M contract).

Already, it may be easy to forecast that the 2008-2009 offseason will give teams similar success with Scott Boras, agent for Manny Ramirez (42 years old at the end of the contract), reportedly looking for a six-year contract at $25M per year. If that kind of money is eventually given to a guy that would be 42 at the end of the contract, I may just turn to the NHL (no...never).

In all seriousness though, the NHL does have an excellent new team payroll system that requires teams and players to share team revenues. Player salaries cannot bulge to more than 54% of team revenue from the previous year, effectively creating a salary cap that is dependent on league success. Major League Baseball GM's and owners need to be mindful of this percentage as well as fans and corporate sponsors may become less willing to spend money to be in the stadium given the current economic crisis in the United States.

It will be a very interesting offseason as teams like the Yankees, Braves having as much as $80M in salaries coming off the books this year. Other large-market teams like the Dodgers, Mets and Red Sox promise to be contenders as well, driving up the market price on the elite and mid-range players. The way that money is spent in the next few months may be record-breaking as well as back-breaking for the future economic success of Major League Baseball.

Mike Jacobs to Kansas City

2008-10-31T20:56:00.000-07:00

I noticed earlier today that the Kansas City Royals acquired slugging first-baseman Mike Jacobs of the Florida Marlins for lefty specialist Leo Nunez. I know that Nunez was a very effective reliever this past season, posting a sub-3.00 ERA, but Jacobs has proven himself to be a very effective power hitter, he is a bat that is begging for a good lefty-hitting park. Unfortunately, he won't get that in Kansas City, but I am still very high on a guy like Jacobs and see this move as being a steal for Kansas City. This past year, in 477 at-bats (primarily against right-handed pitching), Jacobs hit 32 homers for the Marlins, also in a very spacious park.

This is the perfect move for the Royals who sorely need power in a lineup that hit 120 home-runs in the entire season and the Marlins lose him as he enters his arbitration years, which is a big help to them as they try to bring that payroll down to less than half of ARod's salary in 2009. Leo Nunez will be an effective reliever with the Marlins, but the Royals had a very solid bullpen in 2008 and addressed two huge issues with their team: filling the hole at first-base and adding power. I wish to give a lot of credit to Dayton Moore, who has been incredibly aggressive throughout his time with Kansas City.

Keep an eye on Kansas City in 2009, they really are looking like a team that is going to be vastly improved.

Congratulations to the Phillies

2008-10-30T08:35:00.000-07:00

I have got to hand it to the Phillies. They certainly came to play right out of the gate and won this series, to bring serious sport euphoria to the city of Philadelphia. I do however feel that the story of the Series was more that the Rays lost the series rather than the Phillies winning it. Through poor defensive play, lack of clutch hitting and lack of aggression on the base paths, the Rays did not play their game. Despite pitching performances that kept them in the games, the Rays just could not break through against Philadelphia pitching, which is a credit to the excellent preparation and scouting work that their franchise had done to prepare for the series. I really feel that the lesser team won this series and really, with four of five games being decided by two or fewer runs (Three one-run games), the Rays mistakes that led to a run or not scoring did come back to cost them the series. The best example in my view was the defense of Akinori Iwamura. This is a player that is a serious contender for winning a gold glove and throughout the series, he committed 4-5 errors or misplays by himself. Take some of those back and we could be in Tampa right now.

The Phillies certainly did play as well as they are capable. Cole Hamels looked great in both games and the other starters did what they needed to to keep their games close, two eventually being won by the Phillies. Their offense did what it usually does -- hitting lots of long fly balls. I will give credit to the Phillies, they played their strengths perfectly in this series and Charlie Manuel's use of their bullpen was excellent.

Overall though, this was a memorable series for Major League Baseball, with one of the lowest ratings in the history of the World Series. The play was sloppy and there was a 46-hour rain delay. The Rays made it to the Series after a season in which they had the worst record in baseball. The Phillies won the Series despite being forecasted to not even make the playoffs on September 1st. It was a fantastic season for Major League Baseball for story lines and pennant chases and the World Series was the perfect culminating event for some of the best stories of the year. Congratulations to the Philadelphia Phillies on their first World Championship since 1980.

Running a 5K

2008-10-29T10:36:00.000-07:00

Dear Family and Friends,

As promised, I am deviating from baseball for just one article to include the results from my 5K. I have to admit that this was one of the harder things that I have physically done in a long time, certainly since my knee surgery. For those who do not know the landscape of the city of Ithaca, it is at the tip of Appalachia, which means hills and lots of them. In the picture above, I was off to a burning quick start, in third place of over 200 runners after the first quarter-mile. It was a great feeling. I was thinking in my head that all of the treadmill work I had done in the past two months really had worked. Then, of course, reality set in as I reached the base of a 30 degree hill that quickly felt like from the top, I would be able to see several states away. The effect of this hill was the same as attaching a fifty pound anvil to my waist for the rest of my run. Despite miserable cramps, tired and sore legs and the cold rain falling on me, I managed to finish the first half of the race in 11:50, which put me on pace to finish well ahead of my goal of 24 minutes. Though, lap two presented the same challenge as lap one, that damn hill! As I climbed again, it completely took the air from my sails. I was through and pulled into the grass and walked while trying to stretch the cramps that had engulfed my entire torso into quiet submission.

It was at this point of weakness that I became thoroughly convinced that Uncle Bill was with me on this morning because it was at this time I started to think about the reasons why I decided to torture my body on the hills of Ithaca, New York. I thought that my Uncle Bill was not a quitter and walking my way towards the finish line would just not suffice. He stood for hard-work and constant effort in my eyes and there was absolutely no way that I could allow myself to stay limp in the grass. With the memorable guitar solo from "Free Bird" resounding in my ears through the headphones to my iPod, my legs began to move faster, catching up with Skynard's fingers. I reached the downhill portion of the course and had noticed that I was starting to pass people, rather than the reverse effect. With Uncle Bill pushing, I reached full stride again as the stopwatch hung around my neck ticked to 23:00. The cramps did not dissipate, but somehow they didn't matter. The only thing that did was to accomplish my goal, to beat the 24:00 mark. With the finish line in sight and a supportive crowd cheering me on (probably because I looked as though I was about to pass out), I turned off my music and enjoyed my moment with Uncle Bill. We crossed the finish line 72nd overall at 23:55 and with love and pride in our hearts.

Not long after the race was over, I got back to my car to notice that I received a message from a special friend, who had managed to skip out on a very important meeting just to root me on at the start and take a few photos. She wished me luck and told me how proud my uncle would have been of me. With tears in my eyes, I looked down at my number and it dawned on me -- I was wearing number 75 on my chest, the same as the age of my Uncle Bill.

There is no doubt in my mind that something special happened to me that morning and I have learned from this experience. No goal is large enough when you live like my Uncle Bill did. Through constant perseverance, loving what I do and the people around me, and never letting in anything is possible. All I have done throughout my time without Uncle Bill is try to take from these qualities and become a bit more like him. That day, I realized that thanks to Uncle Bill, I have the strength, ambition and love in my heart to do anything I want in life because I admired those things about him and have made them my own throughout the years of knowing him.

Doing this race was an eye opening experience to receive the amount of support and love from people in my family or close friends. Whether the support was meant to be for me or for Bill, it was appropriately sent because we both were together once more on a rainy morning in Ithaca, New York. Thank you very much to all of those who contributed to my effort to raise funds for cancer awareness and honor my Uncle Bill.

Love,

Dan

World Series Preview

2008-10-20T12:01:00.000-07:00

Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays

Alright Las Vegas, you're going to have to pay up big to anyone who picked this match up on opening day. While I have been a constant voice of Rays support, not even I thought that they would go this far with a mediocre offense, a starting rotation all under the age of 26 and a bullpen comprised of scrap-heap pickups. The Phillies have been up and down all season and have gone as their hitters have, yet they are now hot and have led their team to a convincing World Series berth.

I look at the Phillies and I see a lot of offensive talent, that when hot, can dominate teams. Against mediocre pitching in Los Angeles and Milwaukee, that is exactly what happened. The Phillies offense has been firing on all cylinders and really has impressed the baseball world with their maximum capacity. They also have a dynamic starter in Cole Hamels and a better closer in Brad Lidge, yet to blow a save in nearly 50 opportunities (including the playoffs). One thing that I fear for the Phillies is that they clinched their series well earlier in the week and the Rays are still on a high after beating the team of the decade to this point.

The Rays have immense depth in starting pitching, relief and in speed on the base paths. This team is going to win if it can field the ball and run as it has all season. The three games that the Rays won behind their offense are a fluke to me however. With no regular player hitting over .280 in the season, having Upton, Crawford, Pena and Longoria around or above .300 in the playoffs shows me that these players got hot at the right time, but based on the body of work for their season, it will likely not last another seven games. Their pitching is an extreme strength. They had six starting pitchers on their ALCS starting rotation, all of which are under the age of 26 as mentioned previously. Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine all have different approaches to the game and will give the seasoned Philadelphia hitters four different looks. Another thing about the Rays starters is that with the exception of Kazmir, they are durable enough to go deep into games. Their bullpen also will be a strength as shown in throughout the ALCS. Their strength was especially amplified when in the 8th inning of Game 7, Joe Maddon used four different relievers consecutively to retire the Red Sox. Maddon has guys from both sides that can throw gas in Price and Balfour, soft-tossing out getter's in Bradford and Howell, and a seasoned veteran in Wheeler. With those five pitchers the Rays have a lot of ways to mix and match to get 6 outs at the end of a game which may be presented to them with the durability of their starters.

All that said, I have to give the edge to the Rays in this series. They just beat a team in Boston, with far better pitching than the Phillies and a similar offensive approach. I expect Maddon to keep running and putting pressure on Philadelphia throughout the series. The Rays will ultimately win this series behind their speed, great defense and strong relief adaptability. It should be very obvious by this point that they are not scared of the magnitude of the situation and it is expected of them to continue their success. The Phillies will have to shake off any rust that 6 days of rest may have given them at Tropicana Field, where the Rays have looked great all season. The Phillies could very easily find themselves in an 0-2 hole, even with their true ace (Hamels vs. Kazmir) on the mound in Game 1. I expect this series to provide baseball with the fairytale ending to the best story written in Baseball in the last half century.

Prediction: Rays in 6

Joe Maddon's Game 2 Decision Making

2008-10-12T21:46:00.000-07:00

While staying up until 1:30 A.M. on the east coast, Rays fans were well rewarded for watching the game well past their bedtimes of 8:00 and witnessed what great postseason moments are made of.

In an epic 5 and a half hour game, the Rays and Red Sox matched great bullpen performances after their starters let them down. After the offenses cooled, Joe Maddon's bullpen pitched great, led by Dan Wheeler. Wheeler, the Rays closer, threw 3.1 innings and 48 pitches in his effort and kept the Red Sox lineup quiet in extra innings. I will give credit to Maddon for being so agressive with his best relief option to put him out for a fourth inning of work. Of course, there is reason to question using his closer for 48 pitches in Game 2, but it really was a must win situation. Time will tell if Wheeler remains effective with the coming games at Fenway, but I have to say that I like the move for now.

The other Maddon move that I wish to discuss was in the bottom of the 11th when he sent Fernando Perez to steal 3rd base with Jason Bartlett hitting. Bartlett grounded to third, and without the run on, Youkilis had a sure thing double play, which would have left a runner on second and two down and the inning would have been over with Upton's flyout. Instead, the Maddon led Rays were agressive and it eventually paid off, evening the series at 1-1. Looking at Jon Lester, who has yet to give up an earned run in two postseason starts, the Rays needed Game 2 and got it thanks largely to the management of Joe Maddon.

LCS Preview

2008-10-09T19:38:00.000-07:00

National League Championship Series:

Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies

This promises to be a very good series. Each team offers very similar style and are playing the best baseball of their season right now. They have two managers in Joe Torre and Charlie Manuel that have been in the postseason a great deal in their day, and they each have offenses that can mash the ball, with a slight advantage to Philadelphia if Pat Burrell is indeed getting his stroke back (2HR's in Game 4 of the NLDS vs. Milwaukee). The Phillies and Dodgers both have the offensive talent but the Phillies offer something that Joe Torre cannot counter with, a bonafide ace in Cole Hamels while the Dodgers counter with one of the best postseason hitters in baseball history in Manny Ramirez. In the playoffs however, good pitching beats good hitting most of the time and the Phillies absolutely have an edge with Hamels in potentially three games if necessary. In the battle of late inning relief, Brad Lidge has been amazing this season and Takashi Saito is not on the Dodgers roster because of an elbow injury which will weaken their bullpen greatly. Those two factors are going to make the difference in this series -- Hamels and a dominant closer in Philadelphia countered by average starting pitching and relief pitching. Whichever team makes it to the World Series will have their hands full with their American League opponent.

Phillies in 6

American League Championship Series

Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays

Oh how great it feels to type Tampa Bay Rays in for another playoff series. This is a team that has amazed all season and now things are getting serious. They are 8 wins away from the right way to end such an incredible story of worst to first while having such a low payroll which is doubled (Jays), tripled (Red Sox) and quintupled (Yankees) by teams in their own division. The Rays are going to have to really test their mettle with this series against defending champion, Boston. The Red Sox bring a better offense, better rotation and better closer than the Rays, yet they need to be afraid because the Rays have found a way to get to 100 wins (including post-season play) on clutch hitting and solid pitching performances, they also outmatch the Red Sox with a deeper bench and better middle relief. The bottom line to this is that the Rays and Red Sox make a great match up with the Rays taking 10 of 18 in the regular season.

It will come down to the starting pitching match ups from my point of view. The Rays will send James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine out in the first four games of the series countered by Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield. I thought that the Rays had a great chance to take the first three games of the series or at least be up 2-1 on Boston with a rotation of Shields - Garza - Kazmir because the first two games would give an advantage to the Rays as Shields is far more consistent than Matsuzaka and Garza has been much better at home than the road versus an uncomfortable looking Josh Beckett. Then Kazmir, who has not looked comfortable with a 5.19 ERA in September and an ugly win versus Chicago could come out of nowhere and be the dominant pitcher that he is capable of being and take on Jon Lester head to head. I really think that with that rotation, the Rays were just about guaranteed 2 or maybe even 3 wins.

Instead, with Kazmir against Beckett in game 2 and Garza and Lester in game 3, I now think that the Rays will be down 2-1 in Boston, which can mean death for some teams. Kazmir/Beckett looks like a match up that will become a battle of the bullpens, though either or both pitchers can be scintillating. Then Jon Lester should be able to continue his playoff dominance in Game 3 as a pitcher who is better at home against one who is far worse on the road. Despite the 2-1 advantage that I predict Boston to have, I think that the Rays will take one of the next two games in Boston with Wakefield's knuckleball in cold weather and Matsuzaka's erratic nature, though I do not expect Matsuzaka to lose to the same team twice. This means that the series will be going back to Tampa where the Rays have lost just two games all season with sellout crowds. Facing Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, Boston's two best pitchers, I have to think that the Red Sox will take this series. I can guarantee one thing here though, this series is going to be phenomenal and the best moments are going to happen in Tropicana Field, I hope Bud Selig joins in on the fun. Enjoy fans...

Red Sox in 7

Reflecting on the Angels/Red Sox

2008-10-07T09:10:00.000-07:00

To start, these were four of the best consecutive games in a playoff series perhaps ever played. These four games were hard fought for each of the 39 innings and there was doubt as to who would win the game until the final out was made. This series can best be described as being intense.

In the end, it came down to the Angels not being able to come up with the clutch hit while the Red Sox taking advantage of the uncharacteristic sloppy defense that the Angels played, particularly in the outfield. While the Red Sox did not play great, they did play well enough to win this series. I will give this credit to the nature of their regular season play. The Red Sox (and Rays) play in arguably the most competitive division in baseball and most competitive division in the past decade with four playoff capable teams. The nature of play in the American League East prepared the Red Sox for the playoffs better than that of the West, where two of the worst teams matched up with the Angels. Since much of September is played against their division, it makes sense that the Red Sox were better prepared for this series than the Angels were.

The Red Sox are now preparing to play in their fourth ALCS in six years, firmly allowing the Red Sox to take grasp as the team of the decade to this point. As Jerry Crasnick points out on ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3630312), the culture that surrounds the Red Sox franchise has changed to that of confidence and I fully expect this to continue to be a factor against the Rays, as they play in their first ever ALCS.

Cubs Swept

2008-10-05T07:36:00.000-07:00

The Cubs will be back next year, their nucleus is just too good not to in such a weak National League. Though, I'll bet that Lou Pinella does not bench his all-star starters for the entire final week to the season. I'd say that it threw off their timing just a bit. I will give credit to the Dodgers, they put on pressure and kept it on, but the Cubs have now been swept out of the playoffs in the Division Series three times in the last six years. It may be time to get a high OBP, lead off type to take over in center field for Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson and push Alfonso Soriano down to a lower spot in the lineup. Either way, you kind of have to feel bad for the Cubs. On the cover of Sports Illustrated and ESPN's choice for World Series champions, they fell hard and their fans have got to be feeling the pain.

Angels Woes Versus Boston

2008-10-04T07:28:00.000-07:00

Sports analysts across the country have been screaming since Boston's 7-5 defeat of the Angels last evening about the post-season dominance that the Red Sox have over the Angels. Last nights win marked the 11th consecutive win for the Red Sox over the Angels in post-season play, a streak that spans back to the 1986 LCS. While those games seem unimportant, the Red Sox domanince of the Angels in October baseball is unusual and at least the 8 consecuitive victories (sweep in the LDS in '04, '07; and a 2-0 lead in '08) are relevant. This is unlike any other matchup that I have seen in my time as a follower of the game, while the 2008 series has provided some incredibly hard fought games, the Red Sox have still been winners.

I find it hard to believe in professional athletes allowing for a postseason losing streak that spans two decades to get into their minds, but it does seem unreal that the best team in the playoffs may go down tomorrow night to the same team. I think in this case, the Red Sox are the only team to win two World Series championships since the millenium. The experience of winning in the playoffs is in favor of the Red Sox and that may be the difference. Anchored by Josh Beckett, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis and Jonathan Papelbon, the Red Sox do not get fazed by adversary and look for them to go in for the kill on Sunday.

Game 1: BOS @ LAA

2008-10-01T19:51:00.000-07:00

It is the 3rd inning in Los Angeles this evening and already this game is shaping up to be a battle of two of the greatest and most successful managers in Major League Baseball today. Whatever happens, this is going to be an incredible series. Also, tonight is the first time I recognized Howie Kendrick's improved defensive prowess. Thanks to Buck Martinez, the stat of one error in 70+ games is a huge improvement in just one year (9 in 86 games last year).

ALDS Preview

2008-10-01T06:38:00.000-07:00

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
I don't know where to begin with this series because defending champion, Boston, has history of defeating the Angels in the Divisional series in 2004 and 2007 though these teams appear to be in different situations. The Angels finished the season as the best team in the American League and did it with a solid lineup from top to bottom and great starting pitching. The Red Sox have won two championships with teams built on that premises, which is why I say that the winner of this series will be World Series champion in 2008. I said Boston back in July and I am going to have to stick with that choice here. Either way, this is going to be a great set of games and probably the best match-up in the first-round of the playoffs.
Pick: Boston in 5

Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Oh the satisfaction that it gives me to write Tampa Bay Rays in a divisional series preview. The 11 year wait for postseason play is over for the Rays, winners of the American League East. I don't think that the winning is over for the Rays. They won the East, where four teams were viable enough to take the NL West crown and the Yankees would have been AL Central champions, without a play-in game. The bottom line here is that the Rays were winners of the deepest division in baseball, so respect that. They excel in pitching and clutch hitting, which is the formula for playoff success. Also, they are getting healthy at the right time with Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria coming back to their lineup within the last two weeks of the season. This series may be the most one-sided because the White Sox energy has got to be running low and they have the worst overall team of the 8 playoff teams, while the Rays are rested and ready to continue their miracle story.
Pick: Rays Sweep!

NLDS Preview

2008-09-30T17:21:00.000-07:00

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
In this series I favor the Phillies, though not nearly as much as the rest of the country. The Brewers will still get two starts out of CC Sabathia in a five game series and the way that he has been pitching, that could mean that they just need one win in one of the other three games. Despite all of that, the Brewers have really pushed Sabathia about as far as any pitcher can go in the day of the pitch count and five-man rotation. I see this series going to 5 games with the Phillies getting it done against Sabathia.
Pick: Phillies in 5

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
While I see Lou Pinella's strategy of benching his stars during the last week of the season, he runs the risk of having their bats cool down and not be ready to go. The Dodgers have been playing very good September baseball and have gotten healthy at the right time. Even with that said, the Cubs are just so deep and have been baseball's most consistent team all season largely because of a deep pitching staff. I like the Dodgers in game 1, but the Cubs to take three in a row after that.
Pick: Cubs in 4

Royals Talk

2008-09-29T19:13:00.000-07:00

While the Chicago White Sox tied the small-market Minnesota Twins this evening for the AL Central lead at the end of regulation play in 2008, there was one bright ray of sunshine for me as an Ozzie Guillen team took another breath for this season. The 2008 Kansas City Royals finished with a 75-87 record, beating the Detroit Tigers by one game for fourth place in the division. While playing their best baseball in September the Royals finished ahead of pre-season World Series favorite Detroit. This is a small victory that will most likely go unnoticed outside of the Kansas City clubhouse and this blog, but I think that is quite an amazing feat. Let's compare the lineups towards the end of the season:

Kansas City:
C - J. Buck; 1B - R. Shealy; 2B - A. Callaspo; 3B - A. Gordon; SS - M. Aviles; LF - M. Teahen; CF - D. DeJesus; RF - J. Guillen; DH - B. Butler

Detroit:
C - D. Ryan; 1B - M. Cabrera; 2B - P. Polanco; 3B - C. Guillen; SS - E. Renteria; LF - M. Thames; CF - C. Granderson; RF - M. Ordonez; DH - G. Sheffield

It is unreal that the Royals put together a team to beat that offense, however it may be because the Royals offense is improving steadily. With a strong September from Alex Gordon, Ryan Shealy and Mark Teahen, the nucleus to the offense may finally be growing together. While it is someone in their lineup steps up and becomes their big bat, the Royals will be serious contenders in 2009. Alex Gordon has been tabbed as having five tool potential and Billy Butler has put up some amazing numbers in the minors. Each player has a great chance to become offensive stars next season. With the average age of 27.11 years old, the Royals are a young team that obviously took large strides from 2007 (.261) to 2008 (.269) offensively. While more work is necessary, this team has the look of the 2008 Rays with a great closer in Joakim Soria and 3-4 quality starters. An early warning -- watch out for the 2009 Royals.

Brian Giles Declines Trade to Boston

2008-08-09T19:54:00.000-07:00

Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, the big trades are done with and the media found the Red Sox waiver claim of Padres outfielder Brian Giles to be newsworthy this week. The Padres and Red Sox were working on a deal to send the former All-Star, Giles, to the Red Sox before the deal was quashed by the veteran slugger. Giles has a limited no-trade clause in his contract with Boston being one of the teams that he could not go to. I was more than just a little bit surprised to hear that Giles did not accept the trade because he did not want to play a limited role with the club. In his thirteen-year career, he has been in the postseason only once and with his power numbers on severe decline, it does not seem likely that he is fit for a starting role on many teams. Due another 3 or so million dollars for the rest of the 2008 season and a 3 million dollar buyout for the 2009 season, this trade would have cost the Red Sox quite a bit for an insurance policy and depth addition. While I don't really know why the Red Sox were so willing to pay 6 million dollars and players for Giles, who might not give them 100 at-bats down the stretch, it absolutely shows that the Red Sox are still trying to be very agressive to add to their offense down the stretch which should be of note to American League fans.

The Toast of the NL

2008-07-24T11:44:00.000-07:00

As usual, while watching the ESPN show 1st and 10 this afternoon, my mind started working off of the arguments between Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith. When the two weren't arguing their views based on their ethnic composition or when Smith didn't call out ESPN for being too gracious to Brett Favre (it's about time someone said it), they discussed the question as to whether or not the Brewers were the best team in the National League. I also want to talk about this question now too.

To me there are three teams in the National League that should be in this conversation and they are all in the NL Central: the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals. I also wish that the NL West would be disallowed of having a team in the postseason since these three are all so capable.

1.) The Chicago Cubs Cubs; 59-42 (Division Lead)

The Cubs started off the 2008 season showing that they are a very strong team. With their strong start and unexpected contributions from Ryan Dempster, they had a very deep rotation before the addition of Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin from the A's. Now with Harden in the rotation, the Cubs have Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis in their starting rotation. It is so deep that Chad Gaudin has been moved to the bullpen despite having a very good season as a starter with Oakland and is pitching in relief for the Cubs. Now, Gaudin can bridge the gap between starters and Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood when healthy at the end of the game. They say that pitching wins, and this team is full of it.

Offensively, the Cubs have seen Ryan Theriot become one of baseball's best contact hitters this season with his average presently at .324; he has been a great surprise for this team and has really helped be a catalyst to the lineup. More importantly with Alfonso Soriano coming off the DL yesterday, this team gets much stronger contributions from wherever Lou Pinella decides to place him in the lineup and now the bench gets deeper with Reed Johnson no longer having to play everyday. Other starters Jim Edmonds, Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Geovanny Soto and Kosuke Fukudome have all been all-stars in their careers and provides the Cubs with excellent veteran prowess throughout the lineup.

2.) The Milwaukee Brewers; 58-43 (-1 Behind Cubs)

Milwaukee made the biggest move of the season in acquiring CC Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians prior to the all-star game. Sabathia has paid immediate dividends; sending the Brewers into a hot streak of 9-3 since the trade pulling them to within one game of the division lead. Between Sabathia and Ben Sheets, the Brewers have the best 1-2 punch of starting pitching in the National League. After that, the pitching does get more difficult to defend with Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Manny Parra in their rotation. Suppan won a ring with the Cardinals and has a veteran presence while Bush had been inconsistent throughout his career and Parra has been good, but is still largely unproven with only 21 career major league starts. It is a shame that Yovanni Gallardo went down to injury, otherwise this would be a fantastic starting rotation. At this point, it is certainly still above average and will get the Brewers far behind Sabathia and Sheets. Their bullpen has been downright awful at points during the season, especially with Eric Gagne and they are looking to address the depth in the bullpen potentially with a trade, but the Brewers have found a secret with Salomon Torres as their closer. He has not been lights out, but he has converted 18 of 22 save opportunities this season. Eric Gagne has looked better since returning from the DL and Brian Shouse, David Riske and Seth McClung also around to provide some help in the middle innings. This isn't a great bullpen, but it might hold together through September.

Offensively they have had inconsistent production from everyone except Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, yet they are still very talented offensively. JJ Hardy has caught fire over the past month and has really led the offense. If things continue with that trend Hardy-Braun-Fielder-Hart is as good as it gets 2-5. Outside of that, Jason Kendall has really been a good addition to this club. He plays above average defense and has been a veteran leader for the pitching staff. After a hot April, he has cooled down to .257, but he still is a very valuable player to have around. Third-Base is an ugly position with Russell Branyan and Bill Hall splitting time there. The two should combine to provide good power, but not a great average. Hall can play some stellar defense no matter the position that he is in. They have a deep bench after acquiring Ray Durham to back up the underwhelming Rickie Weeks at second-base.

3.) St. Louis Cardinals; 57-46 (-3 Behind Cubs)

The previous two teams have added starting pitching via the trade in the last month of the season. The Cardinals have not added anyone, yet in August when Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright it will have the same effect as the Cardinals adding two top end of the rotation starting pitchers. At the onset of the season, I told friends that the Cardinals starting rotation was going to perhaps be the worst in baseball, Joel Piniero, Braden Looper, Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer have been the glue that has kept the Cardinals together. In contrast to what I thought, the Cardinals pitching has the potential to become one of the best down the stretch with Carpenter-Wainright-Lohse-Looper-Wellemeyer. Much like the position that the Cubs are in, the Cardinals will have extra starting pitching, which can mean that Piniero can go to the bullpen and help out with an extended arm in the pen. While Jason Isringhausen has not been the same this year, Ryan Franklin has been effective enough as closer. Russ Springer and Kyle McClellan have also been great in the setup and middle relief roles, both with ERA's under 3.00. It may be ugly right now, but the Cardinals will have a lot to look forward to down the stretch.

Besides Albert Pujols this offense has no other huge names, but there has been some great contributions coming from everyone throughout the Cardinals lineup. Ryan Ludwick was an all-star this season and absolutely deserved the role hitting .294, 23, 69. Troy Glaus has had a better season hitting near .280. He has experience in the playoffs with the Angels and should be valuable to the Cardinals down the stretch. Rick Ankiel has been inconsistent this season, but he has been hot lately and has 22 home runs now. Mark McGwire did once say that Ankiel had 30 home run power, it appears as though he was right, not to mention his cannon from center-field. After looking at the statistics, Pujols, Ludwick, Glaus and Ankiel have combined for a better average and power numbers than the four best hitters for the Cubs or Brewers. They couldn't have done so more quietly. With those facts in mind, the Cardinals will be right there in September.

Overall, I love this division. Watching the Cardinals and Brewers last night was great. The fans in the NL Central have received a gift of some great competition in 2008 and have really supported their teams. I honestly think that the Cubs and Brewers will be the two to make it to the playoffs from this division. The Cubs are just so deep and the Brewers just are playing hungry. If the Brewers can pull ahead of the Cardinals by 4-5 games now, the Cardinals just won't be able to pick it up in September. This division will most likely be decided by 5 games or less between these three teams. Watch the NL Central!

Here Come the Yankees

2008-07-23T09:36:00.000-07:00

Uh-Oh! Here it is -- the end of July, and the Yankees are now just 3.5 games out of the AL East lead. It is scary to imagine that a team with Sidney Ponson in its rotation can be doing so well, but the Yankees are simply rolling their way up towards the top of the division. What has been a very inconsistent team throughout the season has started to show signs of consistency. Their offense should be set, even without Hideki Matsui. It is their pitching that worries me. Andy Pettite and Mike Mussina have been great so far this season, but they are both old and could be in for a hard end of the season given their age and recent history. Chien-Ming Wang is out until September and Joba Chamberlain has not recieved run support. It will be interesting to fololow this team. With their resources, it would be silly for them not to acquire a starting pitcher for the stretch run. There has been talk of Jarrod Washburn. If that is the best available starter, perhaps Sidney Ponson may work out just as well however. Keep an eye on this team.

What's Going on in Houston?

2008-07-23T09:22:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, July 22nd -- The Houston Astros traded Chad Reinke for Randy Wolf. This is a guy that has an ERA of 6.63 away from Petco Park and will now be pitching inside one of the most hitter-friendly parks in Major League Baseball. If that isn't bad enough, the Astros are playing in the same division as the three best teams in the National League (Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals) and are in last place in that division, twelve games out. What do the Astros think they are accomplishing by making this trade? Ed Wade must be desparate at this point to save the Astros from the bottom of the division. At best, Wolf is a .500 pitcher and has an ERA close to what it is presently at 4.74. Realistically, if Wolf doesn't get hurt first, he will struggle mightily pitching in the NL's strongest division and will be a wasted 2.5 million dollar investment. I can't see any positives from this trade for the Astros.

2nd Half Predictions

2008-07-13T19:47:00.000-07:00

With the New York Mets defeat of the Colorado Rockies this evening, the non-mathematical first half of the 2008 Major League Baseball season is now over. With all of the hype that the All Star Game will bring the city of New York over the next couple of days, yet while this one does count, I am very excited to think about Thursday and the start to the 2nd half of the season. To honor what promises to be an exciting end to the season, I would like to make some off the wall and bold predictions.

BOLD The Red Sox will win the World Series
The reason why I think that the Red Sox will become the first repeat World Series winner since the New York Yankees went for three in a row 1998-2000. The Red Sox just are dominant at home and have been able to roll with every injury that they have endured throughout the season. They play 16 of their final 25 games in September at home and because of their trip to Japan back in March, the Red Sox receive extra off days in September to re-work the rotation if need be. To be in first place now without David Ortiz or a consistent bullpen, the Red Sox will be aligned to succeed in the second half with a potential trade to add a solid bullpen arm or Justin Masterson's presence as a converted reliever in another couple of weeks.

OFF THE WALL The Texas Rangers will be in the race for the Wild Card on September 22nd
Alright, so the Rangers can't pitch. The good news though is that division rivals the Angels, A's and Mariners can't hit while the Rangers have perhaps the most dynamic offense in all of baseball (1st in runs scored). With the anemic offenses that plague their division rivals, I really do not see a reason why the Rangers won't continue to contend until the final week of the season with 18 games against the AL West in September. The Rockies didn't have much for pitching in 2007 and made it to the World Series, stranger things can happen when a team gets in a groove.

BOLD The Tampa Bay Rays will make the ALCS and lose to the Red Sox in 7
Alright, well this is incredibly bold with the team in the midst of a 7 game skid, limping their way to the All Star break. The Rays offense has been inconsistent and their pitching has overachieved, but I firmly believe that with the teams three biggest offensive stars: Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, and B.J. Upton not hitting to their potential, that the Rays will receive more of a contribution from that group in the second half, coupled with the emergence of their pitching staff. Plus with wunderkind David Price as well as the #1 minor league system waiting to help the big league team. I expect this team to make a small move at the trade deadline to help add consistency to their lineup.

OFF THE WALL The Pittsburgh Pirates will finish above .500 for the first time since 1992.
The Pirates are really looking like an improved team as of late and have avoided long term losing streaks. Remember that last season Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny were the Pirates best two starters, well this season things have changed. Each have WHIP's approaching 2.00 and ERA's at or above 6.00. I do not think that these guys are truly that bad and I expect that one of them can be productive in the second half of the season with the Pirates as they push towards the .500 mark. One other thing to note is that if the Pirates do trade off Xavier Nady or Jason Bay, their loss will be met by the emergence of Andrew McCutchen in their place. Also, Adam LaRoche is a notorious second half hitter and the offensive production may not fall too far off -- if at all.

Playoff Picks:
AL East - Boston Red Sox
AL Central - Minnesota Twins
AL West - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
AL Wild Card - Tampa Bay Rays

NL East - Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central - Chicago Cubs
NL West - Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card - Milwaukee Brewers

Fan Vote Gets it Right

2008-07-10T16:13:00.001-07:00

Credit is due to fans for getting this vote right. I previously argued that voting for the all-star game was a hoax and that fans seem to always get the vote wrong. I still argue that several starters on each team are not top performers at their position (Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Giovanni Soto, Ken Griffey Jr. and Ichiro for instance are not having seasons that earned them starting spots), but I am so pleased by the final roster spot that I am willing to call it a wash and maintain my average amount of disdain for the game that apparently still counts thanks to the marketing folks at FOX.

Today, Major League Baseball announced that Corey Hart and Evan Longoria were voted into the all star game with the final vote spot. Perhaps this is because no Red Sox or Cubs players were represented in the voting, but nonetheless, these were the most deserving players. Longoria has largely carried the Rays offense with clutch hits and constant contribution in his first two months of his major league career and Corey Hart has been a catalyst in the lineup to the Brewers. Perhaps Pat Burrell would have been a good choice as well, but it was great to see New Yorkers Jason Giambi and David Wright not make it because of their teams massive fan base. I will often hark on how small market baseball does not receive equal opportunity. Today, I do not feel that way and may be on this high for a little while now.

One final note I wish to make is that the Brewers really did what they could to help Hart make this push to Major League Baseball's annual summer showcase event. The Brewers put computers around Miller Park so fans could vote for Hart as many times as possible for this afternoons game versus the Colorado Rockies. Very exciting idea and kudos to the Brewers front office staff for making that possible.

Royals Talk

2008-07-09T21:54:00.000-07:00

The first year of the Dayton Moore tenure in Kansas City, I applauded many of the small micro-management decisions he was making and was immediately excited to see that franchise begin to grow out of decades of failure. For example, as soon as Moore departed Atlanta for Kansas City, he significantly expanded the baseball operations department in the front office. He also acquired my favorite pitcher and future pitching coach, Brian Bannister, for next to nothing. Now I have begun to worry about whether or not Moore will be able to get the Royals out of the cellar for another couple of years.

I looked at that roster this afternoon, and unless Royals owner David Glass continues to be committed to putting money into his franchise and the Royals can successfully lure talent to the mid-western city, things are not looking up. Presently, the Royals have to address improvements at catcher (John Buck/Miguel Olivo), first-base (Ross Gload), shortstop (Mike Aviles/Tony Pena Jr.) and left-field (Mark Teahen). Not to mention that the development of Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Mark Teahen has not gone according to plan. I feel as though to bring this team back to competition, all of these positions need upgrades offensively and defensively. Bringing in an experienced power hitter would absolutely help make everyone else better and in looking at the potential 2009 free agent market, a player that would really make sense is Mark Teixeira. He is a gold-glove player and would absolutely help take pressure away from Alex Gordon and Jose Guillen. He also is probably out of their price range and is not going to be lured to a city that has had one winning season since the 1980's.

If the free agent market is not kind once again to the Royals this offseason, where they have to overspend in order to acquire mid-ranged players (i.e. - Gil Meche or Jose Guillen), then there are some trade options that I would reccomend. Boston's Coco Crisp will be very available and will be entering the final year of his contract in 2009. He has played gold glove caliber defense in center-field, making some breathtaking catches over the past two seasons. I do not believe that Crisp is going to ever be a superstar, but his range and instincts in the outfield would be a great addition to the Royals. I would much rather see David DeJesus in left field and Mark Teahen on the bench as he has showed me that he is not going to be a consistent major league contributor. Teahen's ability to play the corner positions would suit him well to be a super sub. If Mike Aviles continues to hit the way he has, then he will have earned the spot in their 2009 team. The knock I have on him is that he does not appear to work counts well, which can be a sign of trouble for younger players. Jeff Keppinger, who has done nothing but hit for great contact since coming to the majors, would be a good guy to take a flier on. He has never received full playing time in his career, if the Royals have the need for a shortstop, he is a guy to watch.

There are some power options that would be very cheap this offseason such as Richie Sexson. While Sexson is perhaps 2007 and 2008's worst everyday player, if he were to be able to figure out how to make consistent contact again, he has 30 home run power and would be a cheap incentive based option. He would come cheap and has upside to help out the team's power total. It also would be helpful to get him out of spacious Safeco Field. Also there is Ross Gload to platoon him with, which could certainly boost production at first for Kansas City.

The Royals are in an interesting position, with so many young players that have not quite figured it out at the major league level yet, they could explode onto the scene in 2009 much like the Rays have done in 2008. With added veteran leadership and support, this could be that team. With the potential addition of Coco Crisp and Mark Teixeira, the Royals would have added two gold glove caliber defenders as well as capable offensive players. Time will tell if David Glass and Dayton Moore go in this direction, but it makes a lot of sense to add those two.

Rich Harden to the Cubs

2008-07-08T21:28:00.000-07:00

Anytime that Billy Beane has made a trade over the past couple of years, it becomes just a matter of time until the players that Oakland acquires become integral parts to the A's. Today the Chicago Cubs traded RHP Sean Gallagher, OF Matt Murton, OF Eric Patterson and C Josh Donaldson to the A's for RHP Rich Harden and RHP Chad Gaudin. The time that it takes for Gallagher, Murton and Patterson to have an impact on the A's will be immediate. Each of those three players have been stuck behind the bloated contracts that the Cubs starting 9 plus rotation boasts. None of these players strike me as future superstars, though Gallagher may peak out as a #2 starter, and both Murton and Patterson possess varying abilities. Murton is a gap hitter and an OBP guy that may top out as a Raul Ibanez type, getting a late start and potentially becoming a solid RBI guy down the road. Patterson is the younger sibling of Reds outfielder Corey Patterson and exhibits many of the same traits as his brother. In 203 Minor League AB's, the younger Patterson has worked 12 walks and has an OBP 38 points higher than his batting average. Eric Patterson does possess some great speed and may become a dynamic leadoff hitter at some point if he can learn from the A's way of working walks.

The final player that the A's recieved was catcher Josh Donaldson. I had the pleasure to watch Donaldson with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League in the summer of 2006 and I was very impressed with what Donaldson can do. His upper body is incredibly strong and he can really muscle up and go to all fields. His upper body stance compares to that of Manny Ramirez and best of all, he is a catcher. Donaldson will work counts and hit for power. He has struggled this season hitting .217 in high-A ball, but I still think he has a good chance at being a solid Major League catcher at some point down the line. If catching doesn't work out, he has the arm and athleticism to play a corner position. He may be the second best player acquired in this trade after Gallagher.

The Cubs did give up a good package to the A's in return for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. When I first saw this trade, I actually thought that the Cubs got the best end of this deal as Gaudin and Harden are two legitimate starting pitchers at the Major League level, but I do think it may be more realistic because of Harden's injury history. Harden, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in baseball. The only problem is that he has had only one healthy season, in 2004. The Cubs may have acquired a younger Kerry Wood for their rotation for the end of the season, but if he can give them 10-12 starts down the stretch, that could mean 10 wins. He will be just that good in the NL. I was very surprised to see Gaudin was added to this trade since Gaudin is becoming a solid major league starter in his own right and he may not even make the Cubs rotation. He will at least be great insurance for Harden or any other injured Cub starters.

I see this being a very good trade for both sides. The A's pick up 3 players that did not have a future with the Cubs and a solid prospect while the Cubs counteract the CC Sabathia trade with a big move of their own. They even have an insurance policy for the centerpiece of the trade. Billy Beane could have gotten a little more I think for Harden, but this trade will help keep the A's competitive this season. Murton will take over in left-field in place of Emil Brown immediately and most likely become Beane's new Scott Hatteberg.

Sabathia to the Brewers

2008-07-07T14:44:00.000-07:00

Despite my original hesitance about teams acquiring the big lefty, I must say bravo! Doug Melvin and the Brewers front office staff has really positioned this team to be a heavy favorite to potentially make a deep run into the 2008 postseason for a team that has been out of the postseason since 1982. To end a 25 year drought, this would be a team that now features two dominant ace starting pitchers at the top of their rotation in Ben Sheets and now Sabathia, as well as ample young talent. While their bullpen has been shaky all season, this is a team that is capable of going very far. There is potential to see Sheets and Sabathia twice in a short series, teams will have a hard time taking two games from that combination.

I have changed my opinion on acquiring Sabathia for one major reason: the Brewers did not have to give up a huge package to get him. I figured that the Brewers would have to give up two or even three of their top prospects and LaPorta is really the only potential future star that was dealt. Buster Olney made an excellent point last night on Sportscente: both Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia are free agents at the end of the 2008 season, each are likely to become free agents. If the Brewers were to lose both of these guys, the team is going to hold five of the first 50 picks in the draft as a result. Small market teams are forced to reload on an annual basis, and this will give them the opportunity to go for the playoffs now, and then to immediately jump to the top farm system in the majors with so many high picks next June.

For the Indians, this does make some more sense as well. What has really slowed that franchise down this season has been injuries and setbacks to all of their power hitters. Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko have all underperformed even when they haven't been hurt this season, combining for just 10 home runs. This is a group that was expected to hit in the area of 100 home runs. With that kind of power outage, acquiring LaPorta could be a good thing for this season and years in the future. Personally, I have seen LaPorta play a lot at the Cape Cod Baseball League and I certainly didn't see a change to the outfield coming because the guy was massive, even though he showed good agility at first-base in 2006 with the Brewster Whitecaps. The Indians likely acquired a guy that is a lot like Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner. He has big power hitting potential, but I did not see him hitting over .270 in the major leagues. I will look forward to seeing what his approach looks like when the Indians call him up in September or sooner.

Overall, this appears to be a great move for the Brewers and a why not move for the Indians, who did not have much to lose from this trade. Watch for the Brewers the rest of the season. They could very well be the team to beat in the National League.

AL Midseason Awards

2008-07-04T11:26:00.000-07:00

This past week marked the halfway point for all teams. Now that we are over the hump, I would like to give some mid-season recognition to teams.

American League

Best Team - The Tampa Bay Rays
After sweeping the Red Sox and nearly sweeping a 4 game set against the Royals, the Rays are a commanding 4.5 games up on the Red Sox and possess the best record in Major League Baseball. This team is not the best team on paper and still has not received the best performances from many of their offensive contributors such as BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena. They can pitch and I fully expect the Rays to be within striking distance for the rest of the season. While I doubt that they will be atop the AL East at the end of the season, things are starting to really roll in their direction after a five game swing in the last eight days.

MVP - Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
While making nearly the league minimum, this is another wonderful story that has made 2008 such a great baseball season. Hamilton is hitting .309 with 19 homers and 84 RBI's. He is 12th in average, 2nd in home runs (Sizemore, 22) and leading Justin Morneau by 19 RBI's and has been leading or near the top in all of these categories for the entire season. While it probably won't end up this way, Hamilton has a legitimate chance at the home run and RBI legs of the triple crown and an outside chance at winning the triple crown if he were to get his batting average up around .330 with teammate Ian Kinsler. More importantly, his team is three games over .500 at 46-43 and that is largely due to Hamilton's contribution.

Cy Young - Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem
The Angels would be nowhere without the contributions of Saunders, John Lackey and Ervin Santana. Saunders performance of 12-4, 3.04 has been the best of the bunch in 2008. While cases can be made for Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, Saunders is the pitcher who has done the most for his team. Starting out the season 6-0, he got his team through April and has been very solid since, going less than five innings just once this season. By the end of the season, Scott Kazmir and Josh Beckett may have something to say about this award.

Comeback Player of the Year (tie) - JD Drew, Boston Red Sox / Milton Bradley, Texas Rangers
JD Drew has led the Boston Red Sox to the record they are at right now, without David Ortiz in the lineup. His 16 homers this season already outnumber his 2007 contributions to the World Series winners by five. Winner of the AL Player of the Month for June, Drew has cooled off much like other Red Sox hitters in July. Milton Bradley has been a great contributor to the Texas Rangers this season as well. With a line of .320, 17, 54 and no assaults on teammates, Bradley has really done an excellent job with Texas after injuries slowed him down much of the past couple of years. I had to select both of these players because Drew is truly a comeback player, having struggled through a full season of baseball last year, while Bradley was successful, just coming off injury. Arguments can be made that each feat deserves the award, which is why they are both listed.

The CC Sabathia Sweepstakes

2008-06-30T13:18:00.001-07:00

While there still is no solidified ground as to what address CC Sabathia will be playing his baseball in over the next month, there has been enough press to know that he could be on the move. I wanted to quickly discuss my thoughts of trading for Sabathia. I think that if you are a team that is a World Series contender right now (Cubs, Angels, Red Sox, Rays) then adding Sabathia may have some merit, because he would no doubt put those teams at a decided advantage looking towards October. If it is a marginally competitive team that needs starting pitching (Yankees, Mets, most everyone in the NL East or NL West) then I argue that this trade does not make sense.

Sabathia is more than likely going to become a free agent at the end of the season which will give Cleveland two draft picks in the compensation rounds of the amateur draft because of his status as a Type-A free agent. This means that if Cleveland is going to trade him, they are going to seek a value higher than the two draft picks he would give them if he finishes out the season with the team that was a few outs away from going to the World Series in 2007 and could still turn things around in 2008. Mark Shapiro will absolutely seek a huge package in return and after already declining big money to stay in Cleveland, this is going to be a 3 month rental for a player that will likely cost two or three top prospects, perhaps more if there is a bidding war. If only the Red Sox, Brewers, Rays and Yankees can put together a package good enough for the Indians, it would certainly not make sense to have a small or mid-market team land Sabathia because of the near dead weight loss Sabathia would be on their franchise if he departs at the end of the season. Rays and Brewers people should be positioned to set their teams up long term with depth in the minor leagues and have been committed to that for a couple of years now. If that were to change now, it would be a bad business decision to suddenly jump ship on the plan that has been in place and has shown to be successful. No matter how tempting Sabathia may be to these clubs, stick to the gameplan...please. Let the Red Sox and Yankees decide if they want to spend more.

I believe that Sabathia could be traded, but I do not think that he should be. The price is too high to pay on a rental player of at best, three months. One final note is that Sabathia's list of suitors this offseason is going to be potentially a very long list, a lot longer than the potential trading partners that the Indians currently have. He will be testing the waters of free agency almost undoubtedly.

Explaining Jeff Francoeur's Struggles

2008-06-29T22:19:00.000-07:00

In August of 2005, Jeff Francoeur was put on the cover of Sports Illustrated after a torrid start, it was one of the most amazing starts to a career and his month-long streak was far more impressive than what Jay Bruce did in the first week of his big league career. “The Natural” was the title given to him by the popular sports magazine and the baseball community silently gave him the title shared by Charles Dickens’s classic Great Expectations.

Closing in on three years later, Francoeur line is: (.239, 8, 41); inspiring attention in a very different way. I will take my turn at explaining what is up with Francoeur in two ways:

It is important to remember that outside of the first month of his career, Francoeur has not been the type of hitter that Fred McGriff would endorse. He does not work counts well, he is inconsistent with all aspects of the game, yet still the guy has a great deal of potential and I think everyone can see that. Players that do not work counts well generally will be held back from stardom over the course of their careers because they swing at pitches that great hitters lay off. Francoeur has done incredibly well for a player that averages 33 walks per season in 670 plate appearances. This lack of patience is something that would absolutely crush an average player and the fact that he hit .293 last year shows the talent that Francoeur has. This season he looks too slow though, his bat speed and his outfield play make it seem as though there is no quick fix to this issue because he potentially lost agility in the offseason with the weight added to his frame. What has surprised me is that the strikeouts have not shot up above his career averages leading me to believe that there may be something else with him.
I identify Francoeur as an inconsistent hitter that can go months of being hot or cold. Players that endure prolonged streaks strike me as having some makeup problems that can be linked to confidence in themselves and with their swing. Francoeur is from this area and to have people from his home telling him that he is struggling has got to be difficult, plus to have the onus of being “The Natural” can really hurt the development of a twenty-four year old outfielder. It would be very reasonable to imagine how difficult it is to deal with failure after some of the successes that he has enjoyed early on in his career.

Now is the time for Jeff Francoeur to mature as a hitter and show that he can get through his problems both mentally and with his approach. This has the potential to be a season long slump because it is becoming a combined issue of physical and emotional nature from my opinion. If he breaks out of this slump this season, it will be because he is doing something new as his approach that has been thoroughly exposed in 2008. Great hitters adapt and improve over time; we will see how great Francoeur really is or if we all had greater expectations.

Personal Note

2008-06-28T15:37:00.001-07:00

I just wanted to make a quick mention that I have been asked to write for the blog http://www.bravesblast.com for Atlanta Braves specific content. I am very excited to be able to offer my thoughts regarding player development and what the baseball operations department may be thinking. My first article went up this afternoon with a detailed plan for the Braves as the trade deadline approaches. I will continue to provide content on this site for everything involving Major League Baseball that I have insight or opinions on.

Milwaukee @ Atlanta 6.24

2008-06-24T22:37:00.000-07:00

After missing the entire Seattle series and a Ben Sheets masterpiece on Monday, I was really looking forward to some baseball this evening. So it turned out, this may perhaps be the ugliest Major League Baseball game that I have ever witnessed live. A task that I thought would be difficult to beat after some of the losses that the devilish Tampa Bay Rays made possible with the worst bullpen in the modern area. Alas, 5 errors, an ejection of a player that did not seem to be that animated in the first place (he must have used that certain magic word...think Bull Durham -- also, I wonder what that would sound like in Spanish?), a quality start by Dave Bush, and a Greg Norton pinch-hit walk! This will certainly be one of the more memorable games for me.

I am a Dave Bush hater because he always shows signs of brilliance, making him so tempting in fantasy leagues over the last three years, but more often than brilliant he is bombed with extra base hits. To see him beat the Braves and the Blue Jays in his last two starts, while looking so good really tempts me to pick him up while he is hot, but even with his excellent performances (8IP, 2H, 1ER vs. TOR and 7IP, 4H and 1ER vs. ATL) his ERA is still 4.94 and he still shows a keen ability to lose games. I have no idea what it is with this guy, but his 1.23 WHIP does not equate to the 4.94 ERA this year. I will be watching his next start, but it seems as though Bush is the type of pitcher that can look great for a few innings and then have it all fall apart quickly (If so, why not put him in their beleaguered bullpen?).

Finally, Charlie Morton looked pretty good this evening. If it weren't for the 4 errors behind him in the field, and what should have been a fifth on a poorly played ball by Brandon Jones that was ruled a RBI double, Morton could have matched Bush all night. I see that Morton has a very good looking sinking fastball that was 90-94. He commands the strike zone very well with that pitch and will get a lot of outs on the ground as a result. He also has a curveball and a slider that setup strikeouts for Morton. He appears to be around the zone with everything throwing something like 70% of his pitches for strikes this evening. Also, being able to work around 4 errors in the first three innings of the game absolutely showed me something. If the team starts firing on all cylinders, rookies Jo Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens and Morton will be key parts to getting to that point once again.

Minaya Update

2008-06-24T13:56:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, the New York Mets ownership gave Omar Minaya a vote of confidence in his current role of General Manager. The New York Daily News called this the kiss of death, Mets fans can only hope.

Fire the GM

2008-06-17T13:30:00.001-07:00

Yesterday Bill Bavasi was fired, a long overdue move in my opinion, from his position as the General Manager of the Seattle Mariners. In his tenure, the Mariners were winners in just one season and he has provided the Mariners with some of the worst contracts in the history of the sport. Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva all are making at least $8 million dollars with Sexson and Beltre closer to the 15 million dollar department. Since signing with the Mariners, each of those players have failed to put together a consistent season. These are their 2008 numbers as of June 17th: Sexson (.218, 9, 23); Beltre (.225, 14, 30); Washburn (2-7, 5.83); Batista (3-8, 6.09); Silva (3-8, 5.79). With that kind of production from somewhere in the area of $50 Million, of course that shows extreme payroll mismanagement and certainly calls for the guillotine. The Mariners need lots of contact and gap hitters for that team to be successful. Bringing in all or nothing sluggers such as Beltre and Sexson into a pitchers park will further expose them as being one dimensional hitters, which Safeco Field has absolutely done to both of them. So I am very pleased from a baseball fans point of view to see Bavasi no longer calling the shots for the Mariners.

One firing that I have been waiting on since last year is that of Omar Minaya's. Instead, Willie Randolph and Rick Petersen were fired as Minaya's scapegoats, each are quality baseball people that I would have sitting on my bench in a second. Randolph has proven himself to be a capable player's manager or bench coach and has an open line of communication with his players and Petersen has brought along some of the best talent with the A's big three and now John Maine with New York. Minaya on the other hand is the opposite, he is responsible for some of the worst trades in MLB history. Remember, before he was the Mets GM, he was responsible for taking the Expos down the road to relocation. In the process he executed the Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew for Grady Sizemore, Lee Stevens, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips deal. Then only to turn around and trade Colon that offseason for Orlando Hernandez, Rocky Biddle and Jeff Liefer. So really it was Sizemore, Lee and Phillips for Orlando Hernandez. With the Mets, I can't wait to see what happens with the Lastings Milledge deal in about three years but at the time of that trade, I think everyone across the country was wondering what was going through Minaya's mind. Also, imagine the speed at the top of that lineup with Carlos Gomez and Jose Reyes.

I criticize Minaya's work with the Mets not so much for his trade decisions, but rather for his free agent acquisitions. He has shown the propensity to be highly aggressive in the Latin market. So much so that he has really positioned the Mets to be the team to beat in the Caribbean League each winter, but not so much in the National League. His status as a Latin American himself certainly would help any Major League team in negotiation with top Latin talent, but it seems as though Minaya's strategy has been exclusively marketing the Mets to Latin players, which is not going to be successful with the diverse talent coming in from global markets in modern day baseball. The talent that Minaya has bought for the Mets has really proved to be substandard and aging. When he signed Pedro Martinez to that enormous contract in the 2004-05 offseason, it was almost a given to me that Martinez would give them a couple of good years but it would take an act of god for him to be a key contributor until 2009. It also gets me going that Minaya added Carlos Delgado from the Marlins after his contract accelerated for Mike Jacobs who now is a comparative talent while Delgado struggles to stay over the Mendoza line. The problem as I see it is that Minaya and the Mets have not given their farm system a chance to bare fruit during his tenure, but have invested in experienced Latin players with not a whole lot of life left in their careers as examined previously. Their minor league system was rated 17th overall prior to the Johan Santana trade which saw four of their top prospects go to Minnesota. A move that should drop the Mets down to the bottom of the rung for minor league systems. Check out the list of young players that Minaya has moved during his tenure:

Mike Jacobs, 1B (FLA - Showing 35+ HR potential)
Henry Owens, RH (FLA - Got some save opportunities until injuries set him back)
Matt Lindstrom, RH (FLA - Putting up great numbers in the pen)
Gaby Hernandez, RH (A Top Prospect in Florida System)
Jeff Keppinger, SS (CIN - Great contact ability, finally getting to play)
Xavier Nady, OF (PIT - Developing into a solid all around hitter)
Heath Bell, RH (SD - Setup man and future closer for the Padres)
Royce Ring, LH (ATL - Has struggled in 2008, but still has dominant reliever upside)
Brian Bannister, RH (KC - Cerebral pitcher and ML bloodline, 12-8 with a sub 4.00 ERA in '07)

I did not include the players dealt in the Johan Santana trade, because the Mets had the opportunity to acquire the most scintillating pitcher of the decade and took it. I cannot criticize this, even though I do love some of that talent that the Twins extracted in the deal. Of the players listed above, the only players that were sent to the Mets that remain on their roster are Carlos Delgado and Oliver Perez. Imagine that bullpen with Bell, Lindstrom, Owens and Ring still around and also Perez and Bannister (and Jacobs and Delgado for that matter) don't seem to be that much different in production. What burns me the most and should Mets fans too is that the aforementioned talent had all received some playing time in New York prior to their trades (with the exception of Gaby Hernandez). Their tryouts with the Mets were all fairly successful ventures and while trades are part of the game, Minaya needed to hold on to some of that talent because no young reinforcements are coming.

One thing that has made the Red Sox a championship caliber organization has been their dedication to making the right trade and to sustaining their minor league system. This is precisely what the Mets need to be doing as well. Other mid market and small market teams have been developing young talent and have spent millions of their revenue sharing incomes to know their minor league systems top to bottom and win based on that. I am afraid that the Mets will not be able to do this with Omar Minaya at the helm based on his GM track record with the Expos and Mets.

Griffey with the Rays?

2008-06-15T18:12:00.000-07:00

I read on the bottom line that Ken Griffey Jr. was interested in becoming a member of the Rays and has been following their progress this season. As a native of Florida this makes sense -- and for that matter, it should start making sense that the Rays will become a destination of desire many players as Florida is the offseason home for many of the players in the MLB. Griffey Jr. in Tampa Bay? Probably isn't something that the Rays would be too excited about jumping on. Sure he may put a few more fans in the seats and be a great PR guy for two months, but why bring in a aging slugger (albeit one of the best ever) to a team commited to youth. Griffey Jr. at this stage in his career would not be all that much of an upgrade to the talent that the Rays are already putting in the right-field position. With Carlos Pena returning soon, the right-field and designated hitter spots in the lineup would be filled with the following four hitters:

Gabe Gross (.243, 5, 15)

Eric Hinske (.250, 12, 34)

Jonny Gomes (.223, 5, 13)

Cliff Floyd (.268, 5, 18)

That's not great, but here is Griffey's line in one of the MLB's best hitters parks (.248, 7, 30)

To me, that four man rotation that Tampa Bay has employed this season has been fairly productive as an occasional power source in the lower third of the Rays order. It does make sense for the Rays to bring in a big bat if they want to make noise and potentially push to the playoffs for the first time in their history, but if they get that kind of player it would have to be someone that can post a higher average than the group that they have in there right now. I know this is a crazy thing to say with the steriod craze still very much alive, but Barry Bonds makes a lot more sense to me than Ken Griffey Jr. does for the Rays. Bonds would not deplete the Rays #1 minor league system and would probably cost a similar amount. I strongly would urge that the Rays do not deplete their minor league system because in the small market battle, even a couple of players make a big difference in the present and future success of the big league team. I don't hope to see Griffey in a Rays jersey unless the Reds release him and he signs a 400K countract.

The National League West

2008-06-10T21:50:00.001-07:00

I wanted to make some brief observations about what appears to be the weakest division in Major League Baseball. In 2005, I became sick that the Padres made the playoffs all the while the Phillies, Marlins and Mets had a better record than the Padres. This year it has become apparent that the NL West may produce another fifth or sixth best National League team. The reason for this I feel is that the NL West has teams that are so evenly matched in their average nature that they seem to beat up on one another each year and struggle against other NL foes. This division is probably the best way to display what true competitive balance would feel like. I have made arguments in the past that perfect competitive balance would be better for small market teams (TB, KC, PIT) and would eventually even out the economic problems in baseball. However, the problem with that, as the NL West displays, is that if everyone has similar talent, the teams are just no fun to watch and would really hurt the sport. Without successful teams like the Cubs, Red Sox or Angels, the MLB would suffer greatly because competitively balanced teams make for anticlimactic ballgames for home fans.

Economic theory has proven that fans will come to games if they feel that there are between 60-65% chance of victory, anything higher or lower would not attract fans because the games would be less interesting to the average fan (Take a look at the attendance and winning % figures for the Red Sox, Cubs and Angels over the past five years). This blog is not intended for the average fan however which is why I bring up the NL West. That division currently provides hometown fans with the possibility of victory well below 60%. Against division rivals, each team should be around a 50% which to me is a thing of beauty. The competition level of NL West games has been fantastic because when they match up against each other, any team could win. This season, I have been watching a lot of NL West games because these teams are all so evenly matched and recommend it to any true baseball fans as well. I do not expect any of these teams to make it far in the playoffs, but they are sure fun to watch play against one another.